As the author of three books on mortgage finance and related derivative securities, and speaking as someone who first turned mortgages into rated securities in 1983, I’m going to let you in on an unfortunate little secret – the real subprime mortgage securitization crisis may not have even started yet. But, there is a good chance the real crisis will arrive soon.

This assertion that the crisis could just be getting started may seem absurd and extraordinarily out of touch. What about the approximately 45,000 homeowners losing their homes to foreclosure in the United States every month? What about the 8.9% plunge in nominal housing prices in 2007, the largest decline in over 20 years? What about Bear Stearns losing 94% of the value of its stock in 2 days, with even the remaining 6% in value being based on an unprecedented loan from the Fed before JP Morgan would agree to the acquisition? How much worse could it get? ...

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Global systemic crisis / Second half of 2010: The global system’s four single points of failure
The second half of 2010 will thus correspond to a new step in the global geopolitical dislocation, characterized by an acceleration in the process of strategic, financial, economic and social convulsions centered on four single points of failure of the international system... (page 2)
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Western public debt: When insolvency becomes intolerable
Between now and the end of 2010 the whole world will have learned all the lessons from the « Greek crisis ». In fact, there are only two lessons to learn from… (page 5)
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European austerity: When contextual growth is abandoned in favour of structural stability
In speaking of the Eurozone we have written about « a policy » of austerity and not « policies of austerity » as indeed Germany now sets the standards on the subject... (page 8)
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Chinese inflation: When China is going to begin exporting its inflation
As anticipated by LEAP/E2020, the Chinese new impetus plan is coming to an end and opens up two connected problems... (page 12)
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US contraction: From « hidden mass austerity » to « imposed Federal austerity »
The November 2010 mid-term elections will be the first electoral test of a United States in crisis... (page 14)
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Second series of elements for a methodology of political anticipation: Questions about source material and team management
Second series of excerpts from the Manual of Political Anticipation which LEAP will publish in October 2010. (page 19)
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Strategic and operational recommendations for the second half of 2010
US municipal bond market (« munis »): The major shock
Currencies: The hurricane will strengthen with even higher waves!
World stock markets face the unthinkable
Gold, cash, precious metals, real estate… (page 23)
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The GlobalEurometre - Results & Analyses
Those polled are now unanimously agreed (a rare case for the GlobalEurometre) calling for the establishment of European and Asiatic rating agencies so as to no longer depend on the goodwill of Moody’s, Fitch and Standard & Poor’s.… (page 26)
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Special subscribers’ announcements
EU-Russia seminar, Nice, September 23/24 septembre, 2010
Political Anticipation Academy, cycle 2010-2011 (page 30)
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