GLOBAL SYSTEMIC CRISIS Press clippings
The recession clobbers one of Europe’s biggest industries
HOW badly is the recession hurting Europe’s tourism industry during the all-important summer holidays? The outlook is grim, judging by the trend set earlier in the year. After slipping in the second half of 2008, passenger numbers in Italian airports fell by 13.4% in the first quarter of this year. Spain recorded a similar fall between January and June, with airports on Lanzarote (down 19.1%) and Tenerife (down 17.8%), two popular holiday islands, losing more than most. The French Riviera is suffering, too: Nice airport reported a drop of 8% in passengers during the first half of the year. Firms have slashed travel budgets, families are spending less on leisure and Europe’s airports are feeling the pain...
Sales at U.S. retailers unexpectedly fell in July, raising the risk that a lack of consumer spending will temper a recovery from the worst recession since the 1930s.
Purchases decreased 0.1 percent, the first drop in three months, as shrinking demand at department stores such as Macy’s Inc. and Wal-Mart Stores Inc. overshadowed a boost from the cash-for-clunkers automobile incentive program, Commerce Department figures showed today in Washington...
U.S. home loans failed at a record pace in July despite ongoing federal and state programs to avoid foreclosures, which have severely strained housing and the economy.
Foreclosure activity jumped 7 percent in July from June and 32 percent from a year earlier as one in every 355 households with a loan got a foreclosure filing, RealtyTrac said on Thursday...
Last Friday a Bloomberg.com headline read: “U.S. Stocks Gain, Treasuries Drop as Unemployment Rate Declines”.
Let’s have a look at the reported decline in the rate of unemployment. Do you believe that the US auto industry added 28,000 jobs in July amidst GM bankruptcy, sell-off and close-down of GM auto divisions, and demise of GM suppliers? No? Well, that’s what the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported...
Incompetent policymakers are to blame for a financial crisis that will continue until substantial changes are made, author Nassim Taleb, known as the "Black Swan," told CNBC.
Taleb, principal at Universa Investments and coiner of the "Black Swan" term to explain drastic, unpredictable events, said in a live interview that choking debt, continued high unemployment and a system that rewards bad behavior will hamstring an economic recovery...
Le nombre de ces groupes racistes a augmenté de 54% en huit ans. Un phénomène plus marqué depuis l'élection de Barack Obama à la Maison-Blanche.
Pour certains, la pilule est dure à avaler. Les groupuscules d'extrême droite, qui n'ont toujours pas digéré l'élection du premier président noir des Etats-Unis, connaissent un nouvel essor dans le pays après une décennie de déclin, selon une étude publiée mercredi. Mus par une idéologie raciste, antigouvernementale et anti-immigration, les groupuscules américains qui ont prospéré dans les années 1990 sont en train de se développer, a indiqué le Southern Poverty Law Center (SPLC), une association reconnue pour son travail sur l'extrême droite...
Luxury hotels in the Laguna Beach area, the most lavish examples of recent efforts to create a magnet for high-end pleasure travel and business meetings, suffer in the still-fractured economy.
On a sultry midweek afternoon at the grand new Resort at Pelican Hill, a scant dozen vacationers lounged at what is billed as the world's largest circular pool, flanked on one side by a Coliseum-style amphitheater and on the other by an ocean-view golf course...
Los Angeles Times
The 1990s saw the rise and fall of the virulently antigovernment "Patriot" movement, made up of paramilitary militias, tax defiers and so-called "sovereign citizens." Sparked by a combination of anger at the federal government and the deaths of political dissenters at Ruby Ridge, Idaho, and Waco, Texas, the movement took off in the middle of the decade and continued to grow even after 168 people were left dead by the 1995 bombing of Oklahoma City's federal building — an attack, the deadliest ever by domestic U.S. terrorists, carried out by men steeped in the rhetoric and conspiracy theories of the militias. In the years that followed, a truly remarkable number of criminal plots came out of the movement. But by early this century, the Patriots had largely faded, weakened by systematic prosecutions, aversion to growing violence, and a new, highly conservative president...
The U.S. government ran a budget deficit of $180.6 billion in July, marking the 10th straight month of red ink, the Treasury Department reported Wednesday.
The monthly deficit pushed the cumulative deficit so far this year up to $1.26 trillion -- slightly more than the Obama administration's been projecting for all of the 2010 fiscal year. Fiscal 2010 begins Oct. 1...
As late as in the end of April just before the release of the bank stress tests, Ms. Bair Chairman of the FDIC said they would not need any additional bailouts from the U.S Treasury within the immediate future according to The Bulletin. After three new bank failures last Friday, the FDIC’s Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) diminished by another $185 million for a total remaining balance of $648.1 million. After just passing half-year 2009 the FDIC have already used up roughly $16 billion of the fund.
The total value of distressed-debt deals, where creditors use their debt positions to take ownership of troubled companies, has touched $84.4 billion this year, the Wall Street Journal said, at a pace close to double that of 2008.
The newspaper, citing data compiled by data provider Dealogic, said 140 distressed-debt deals have been struck during 2009, compared with 102 for all of 2008...
Almost one-quarter of U.S. mortgage holders owed more than their homes were worth in the second quarter and that figure may rise to as much as 30 percent by mid-2010 as job losses and foreclosures climb, Zillow.com said.
Homeowners are being hurt by price declines. The estimated median value for single-family houses slid to $186,500 in the period, a 12 percent drop from a year earlier and the 10th consecutive quarterly decrease, the Seattle-based real estate data service said in a report today...
Stagnant unemployment, shrinking tax revenue and a struggling economy threaten to quadruple the size of last year's federal budget deficit, raising more questions about the timing of costly proposals to overhaul health care.
As the White House and Congressional Budget Office (CBO) prepare to release new deficit estimates this month, several economists say the news is likely to be as bad as or worse than forecasts...
At a meeting earlier this year, the city council members of Marystown, Newfoundland, voted not to reimburse a resident whose tire hit a pot hole. They agreed to send letters congratulating the new members of a fire department committee. And they pledged to buy Canadian-made products, thereby thrusting themselves into an international trade war being waged not by presidents or legislatures but by mayors and county supervisors on both sides of the U.S.-Canadian border.
Protectionist sentiments were already on the rise in both countries as the recession deepened. But the "Buy American" provisions in the $787 billion stimulus package approved by Congress this spring have increased tensions as U.S. cities and states have barred Canadian businesses from bidding on projects funded with money from the bill...
The U.S. Treasury Department should consider expanding programs to cleanse troubled assets from bank balance sheets if current efforts fail to restart markets or if economic conditions worsen, a U.S. bailout watchdog panel said on Tuesday.
The Congressional Oversight Panel said in its latest monthly report that toxic loans and securities continue to pose a threat to the financial system, particularly for smaller banks that face mounting losses on commercial real estate loans...
Selon le cabinet Hewitt, 48% des sociétés américaines ont gelé les salaires en 2009. En revanche, le budget consacré au bonus augmente.
Selon une enquête menée en juillet par Hewitt Associates, premier cabinet de conseil à avoir examiné les pratiques de rémunération dans les entreprises américaines, les Etats-Unis connaissent leur plus faible augmentation de salaire depuis 33 ans. Elle a franchi à la baisse le seuil de 3% pour la première fois depuis la création du cabinet de conseil en 1976. «Historiquement, nous n’avons jamais atteint les 3 % jusqu’à cette année et nous ne voyons pas de rétablissement au-dessus de ce seuil dans les années à venir», affirme Ken Abosch, conseiller chez Hewitt, cité par Marketwatch...
Le Journal des Finances
They are flown to Paris ($6,332), Orlando ($858.40), Johannesburg ($2,550.70), or most frequently, San Juan ($484.20).
They are not executives on business trips or couples on honeymoons. Rather, all are families who have ended up homeless, and all the plane tickets are courtesy of the city of New York (one-way)...
New York Times
Le plan de relance et la crise ont creusé le déficit à 86,6 milliards d'euros au premier semestre, contre 32,8 milliards un an plus tôt.
Sans surprise, le déficit budgétaire de la France a plus que doublé au premier semestre, par rapport à l'an dernier. Le déficit s'est creusé sur un an à 86,6 milliards d'euros à fin juin, contre 32,8 milliards un an plus tôt, en raison du plan de relance et de la crise qui réduit les recettes fiscales, a annoncé mardi le ministère du Budget...
One of main reasons behind the vast confusion now reigning in the USA, our failure to construct a coherent consensus about what is happening to us (or what to do about it), is our foolish obsession with econometrics — viewing the world solely through the “lens” of mathematical models. We think that just because we can measure things in numbers, we can make sense of them...
Whiskey & Gunpowder
J'ai axé cet article sur les prévisions des experts pour expliquer que plus nous avançons dans le temps, plus la sortie de crise est remise au lendemain et s'éloigne. Tous les spécialistes s'accordent à dire que la crise va encore durer de longs mois et peut-être des années. Même si beaucoup d'entre eux ont commis de multiples erreurs d'appréciation dans le passé, il faut bien "nous raccrocher" à leurs dires pour avoir une idée sur la "longévité" de cette crise sinon qui ou quoi croire ? Ce qui est nouveau c'est que le consensus sur l'épilogue de cette récession rallie de plus en plus d'observateurs quelles que soient leur "école", leur tendance politique ou leur position d'analyste ou d'acteur...
GEAB N°75 - Contents
- Published on May 16, 2013 -
Systemic crisis 2013: with record stock exchange highs, the planets imminent plunge into recession
The world economy is slowing down badly and a widespread recession is looming. The various players are fully aware of it and, in the face of the challenges of an imminent collapse, countries or regions are putting various strategies in place to try and limit the consequences… (page 2)
Read public announcement
BoJ, Fed, ECB : with different methods, contrasting futures
In order to see the unfolding of the global systemic crisis more clearly, we must understand how the major western central banks act, the limits, the advantages, and the disadvantages of their interventions. We explain their policies in broad terms… (page 9)
GEAB Dollar and Euro index
The traditional Dollar Index (used by the financial markets) is an unreliable indicator for forecasting US Dollar developments. Henceforth, our team will also publish the GEAB $ index together with the GEAB € index… (page 14)
Strategic and operational recommendations
. Decoupling of paper and physical gold
. European sovereign bonds: the ECB is still the boss
. Stock exchanges: when QE rains money ! … (page 17)
The GlobalEurometre - Results and analysis
The general tone of this month's poll is sombre, to say the least. Confidence in the capacity to manage the Euro crisis has literally collapsed this month, the fear of losing money has significantly risen … (page 18)