GLOBAL SYSTEMIC CRISIS Press clippings
It felt good for a minute there -- the collective euphoria over a 20% rally in stocks in the past two weeks.
Talk of technical milestones and historical comparisons to bear-market rallies past was mixed with smack about how we only need 14 more days like Monday's 500-point surge in the Dow Jones Industrial Average to get back to the market's October 2007 peak. But underneath the optimism, the shorts were laying on more bets against stocks, and debt investors grew increasingly concerned over government spending plans...
En un encuentro con Gordon Brown, dijo que la "discusión es válida, pertinente", pese al rechazo de EE.UU. En tanto, el primer ministro británico afirmó que en la reunión del G-20 pedirá otro aporte financiero global para impulsar la economía.
El presidente brasileño, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva respaldó hoy, al recibir a su colega británico Gordon Brown, la propuesta china de sustituir al dólar en las transacciones internacionales al tiempo que cuestionó la compra de un billón de dólares de títulos "tóxicos" de bancos anunciada esta semana por el presidente estadounidense Barack Obama...
The last time bankers faced angry demonstrations, some responded by pouring champagne or photocopied £50 notes from windows, but it is unlikely that protesters targeting the City next week during the G20 summit will be met by similar shows of bravado.
Many staff are being advised to dress down next Wednesday and Thursday to avoid being marked out as City workers - if they cannot avoid the protests entirely by working from home. Others have been advised to avoid leaving the office to attend meetings...
The world is slipping dangerously into protectionism, threatening to strangle global economic recovery, the World Trade Organization said Thursday.
In an alarm bell to WTO's 153 members, Director-General Pascal Lamy said free trade has suffered "significant slippage" this year as countries have erected new barriers to imports in the form of tariffs, subsidies and other measures designed to protect domestic industries...
International Herald Tribune
We discuss Franck Biancheri's open letter to the G20, "Last Chance Before Global Geopolitical Dislocation", which advocates for three strategic recommendations: 1) the creation of a new international reserve currency, 2) the control of banks on a global scale, and 3) an independent assessment of the three national financial systems at the heart of the current financial crisis - the United States, United Kingdom and Switzerland. If radical action is not taken within six months, it is anticipated that the opportunity to shorten the crisis to a 3 to 5 year duration will no longer be possible, and the world (particularly the U.S.) will be in for a very harsh geopolitical dislocation lasting for a decade or more.
Guns & Butter (KPFA)
A top European Union politician on Wednesday slammed U.S. plans to spend its way out of recession as "a way to hell."
Czech Prime Minister Mirek Topolanek, whose country currently holds the EU presidency, told the European Parliament that President Barack Obama's massive stimulus package and banking bailout "will undermine the stability of the global financial market."...
President takes no chances in his second prime-time news conference, reading a prepared statement from a massive TV screen, but it was no help during the question-and-answer session.
What kind of politician brings a teleprompter to a news conference?
A careful one.
President Barack Obama took no chances in his second prime-time news conference, reading a prepared statement in which he took both sides of the AIG bonus brouhaha and asked an anxious nation for its patience...
À une semaine d’une importante réunion des pays du G20, la Chine en appelle à l’adoption d’une nouvelle monnaie de référence en remplacement du dollar américain.
C’est que la Chine est dépendante du système monétaire actuel dominé par le dollar US, devise dans laquelle est libellée une grande partie de ses réserves de change, soit près de 2 000 milliards de dollars. Or, la situation économique aux États-Unis inquiète l’empire du Milieu. Si le dollar américain devait péricliter, la Chine serait sérieusement ébranlée, scénario qu’elle veut éviter à tout prix...
What if the Treasury tried to sell billions of dollars of government debt buy buyers failed to show? Unthinkable, right? Well it happened this morning in London as the UK was unable to sell all the GBP 1.75 bln in 40 year gilts that it had offered.
Granted the super-long maturity of the paper may have been a factor in the lack of demand at low rates, but it bears watching, especially as the US in in the middle of a refunding this week. Inverstors will look at the bid/cover ratio more closely than average this week as a result of the UK trouble...
The Federal Reserve bought $7.5 billion of Treasuries in the first outright purchase of U.S. government debt by the central bank to keep consumer borrowing costs low since the 1960s.
Thirteen of the 19 securities maturing from February 2016 to February 2019 listed for possible acquisition were bought, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York said in a statement today. It is the first step in a six-month program to buy up to $300 billion in Treasuries...
Mervyn King, the governor of the Bank of England, fired a shot across Gordon Brown's bows yesterday when he warned that the deteriorating state of Britain's public finances ruled out a giveaway budget next month to boost the economy.
In a move that allowed the Conservatives to claim that the bank backed their claims that Britain cannot spend its way out of recession, King told MPs that the chancellor needed to be "cautious" about tax and spending measures that would lead to still higher borrowing...
China's calls for a new international reserve currency to replace the U.S. dollar are more than mere bluster and could likely lead the debate over the future of the global foreign exchange system, analysts say.
"By proposing such a sweeping reform, China is demonstrating its growing influence in reshaping the global monetary system, and is now on offensive in the debate of who is responsible for the global imbalances," Deutsche Bank's chief economist for Greater China Jun Ma said in a note to clients Wednesday...
Le ministère de l'emploi a confirmé, mercredi 25 mars, les mauvais chiffres annoncés dans un premier temps par LCI, qui tablait sur une hausse de 80 000 chômeurs en février. Selon les chiffres officiels publiés en fin d'après-midi, le nombre de chômeurs inscrits en catégorie A (sans aucune activité) a crû en février de 79 900 en métropole à 2,38 millions de personnes. Si l'on compte les inscrits, exerçant une activité réduite, le chiffre monte à 3,4 millions (+ 80 800), selon une nouvelle présentation statistique, qui remplace les huit catégories actuelles de demandeurs d'emploi par cinq catégories...
Les Chinois, dans un timing parfait, viennent de décider unilatéralement de l’ordre du jour véritable du prochain G20, coupant l’herbe sous le pied aux Américains, qui pensaient l’avoir fait avec leurs demandes insistantes de cofinancement de leurs efforts de relance.
Dans un document mis en ligne sur le site internet de la banque centrale chinoise (The People’s Bank of China), Zhou xiaochuan, son gouverneur, a publié un document intitulé tout simplement « Reform the International Monetary System » ...
Le Blog de Paul Jorion
For years, U.S. Treasury notes have been a safe place for world governments to park their foreign currency holdings. But all of a sudden, the U.S. is running up trillion-dollar deficits.
Now, China is raising concerns about the U.S. dollar's dominant position in the world economy. The head of China's central bank this week said the world should consider creating a new international reserve currency. Russia this month took a similar position; so did a United Nations panel...
For nearly three decades, most states have dealt with lawbreakers in two ways: lock more of them up for longer periods, and build more prisons to hold them. Now many governments, out of money and buried under mounting prison costs, are reversing many of those policies and practices.
Some states, like Colorado and Kansas, are closing prisons. Others, like New Jersey, have replaced jail time with community programs or other sanctions for people who violate parole. Kentucky lawmakers passed a bill this month that enhances the credits some inmates can earn toward release...
New York Times
A bill being considered in the Montana Legislature blasts the Federal Reserve's role in America's money policy and permits the state to conduct business in gold and silver instead of the Fed's legal tender notes.
Montana H.B. 639, sponsored by State Rep. Bob Wagner, R-Harrison, doesn't require the state or citizens to conduct business in gold or silver, but it does require the state to calculate certain transactions in both the current legal tender system and in an electronic gold currency. It further mandates that the state must accept payments in gold or silver for various fees and purchases...
Worl Net Daily
The Obama Administration today announced that it would increase the number of federal agents and the amount of surveillance equipment along the southern border. And for the first time, the administration said, government efforts will be aimed at stopping illegal traffic moving into Mexico as well as interdicting smuggling into the United States...
New York Times
At the European Central Bank, being a maverick means holding steady as others bow to the prevailing winds.
With its peers in the United States, Britain and Japan cranking up monetary printing presses in a bid to prevent their economies from falling into deeper holes, the E.C.B. is resisting the rush into the least orthodox central banking policies in contemporary history...
International Herald Tribune
The honeymoon is over, a national poll will signal today as President Obama’s job approval stumbles to about 50 percent over the lack of improvement with the crippled economy.
The sobering numbers come as the president backpedals from two prime-time gaffes - one comparing his bowling score to a Special Olympian and another awkwardly laughing about the economy, which prompted Steve Kroft of “60 Minutes” to ask “are you punch-drunk?”...
GEAB N°76 - Contents
- Published on June 16, 2013 -
Alert for the second half of 2013 – Global systemic crisis II : second devastating explosion/social outburst on a worldwide scale
A 2008 Lehman type shock, the fire’s symbolic start and especially widespread awareness of the situation, has not yet occurred. This really isn’t good news because, over time, the situation is getting worse and it’s not a shock that one must prepare for but a devastating explosion… (page 2)
Read public announcement
EU 2014-2015: after the European Parliamentary elections, the stand-off between the Parliament and the European Council will encourage Euroland’s rise
The EU’s institutional architecture has always been, since the beginning of the European integration process, based on the shifting sands of political reality. If we only look at it at a given moment, one could be led to believe that the structure is sound, firmly rooted in European treaties. But the reality is quite different… (page 11)
The world in 2030 – Diversification / infrastructures / education: anticipating an economy’s post-crisis capacity to rebound
If it’s necessary to have a view of short term events to navigate through this crisis of secular magnitude, one must never however lose sight of the big picture of the changes in the world, as we regularly remind GEAB readers. It’s the reason why it’s important not to forget the core trends which shape a society over the long term, i.e. over several decades (20 to 30 years)… (page 15)
Global Governance - The Euro-BRICS rapprochement at the service of the system’s update or as a matrix for a new model?
Are the institutions of global governance, theoretically in charge of managing the crisis affecting the world for the last five years, structurally capable of undertaking the necessary reforms to create the conditions for an improvement in their effectiveness?… (page 27)
Strategic and operational recommendations
Cash / oil / stock exchanges / bonds… (page 30)
The GlobalEurometre, Results and analyses
This month’s questionnaire reflects a high but constant concern about the economic signals, with the notable exception over the risk of bank failures which has become clearer once again… (page 33)