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GLOBAL SYSTEMIC CRISIS Press clippings
UK house prices fall for second monthTelegraph
GM, Ford post double-digit drop in August salesMarket Watch
Beck, Palin tell thousands to 'restore America'Washington Post
U.S. Economy Slowed to 1.6% Pace in 2nd QuarterNew York Times
Four possible scenarios for the future of IsraelNewropeans Magazine
El-Erian: How to read Bernanke’s Jackson Hole SpeechFinancial Times - Alphaville
Durable Goods Collapse24/7 Wall St
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UK house prices fall for second month 02/09/2010
British property prices fell by 0.9pc in August as the housing market continued to show signs of weakening, according to Nationwide's latest survey.
Last month's drop follows a slide of 0.5pc in July, and is the first time that house prices have dropped for two consecutive months since February 2009... Read Telegraph
GM, Ford post double-digit drop in August sales 02/09/2010
General Motors Co. on Wednesday was the first of the major auto makers to illustrate just how tough it was to move metal last month, handing in a 24.9% drop in August vehicle sales.
Separately, Ford Motor Co. /quotes/comstock/13*!f/quotes/nls/f (F 11.61, +0.33, +2.88%) also posted an expected decline while Chrysler Group LLC managed to come in with a 7% rise... Read Market Watch
Global markets slide as 3.5pc Nikkei fall heightens fears ahead of more US data 31/08/2010
Global stock markets fell on Tuesday as investors fretted about the pace of the global recovery and waited nervously for a slew of US economic data this week.
Pessimism in Japan saw the Nikkei 225 tumble 325.20 points, or 3.5pc, to close at 8,824.06 as investors worried about the impact of a US slowdown on the strong yen and falling prices. Other major Asian markets also retreated... Read Telegraph
Bankrupt Miami in Fiscal Emergency, Breaks Employee Contracts, Hikes Property Taxes Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/bankrupt-miami-in-fiscal-emergency-breaks-employee-contracts-hikes-property-taxes-2010-8#ixzz0yG4J8XHg 31/08/2010
Miami is bankrupt. Unfortunately the city refuses to admit it.
In an enormously foolhardy attempt to make ends meet, in spite of the fact that Miami home prices have been hammered and 1-in-8 are unemployed, the County keeps pouring on the painful tax and fee increases... Read Business Insider
US recovery fears grow on consumer money worries 30/08/2010
The financial squeeze on US consumers was underlined by figures that kick off a critical week for the world's largest economy.
Americans' disposable income fell last month for the first time since January, according to a report on Monday from the Department of Commerce. After taking taxes and inflation into account, average incomes across the country dropped 0.1pc... Read Tekegraph
Why Even Central Bankers Are Unsure What to Do Now 30/08/2010
The 50-million-year-old Grand Tetons, which formed the majestic backdrop for last week's annual meeting of central bankers in Jackson Hole, Wy., are still rising.
But the bedrock of monetary policy for the past decade, the so-called Jackson Hole Consensus, is crumbling... Read CNBC
Beck, Palin tell thousands to 'restore America' 28/08/2010
A sea of people rallied at the hallowed site of the Lincoln Memorial on Saturday as conservative commentator Glenn Beck and other heroes of the "tea party" movement honored Americans serving in the military and delivered impassioned calls to turn the nation back to God and to protect the traditional values that they said make the country exceptional...
Read Washington Post
Trichet Says Failure to Cut Government Debt Risks ‘Lost Decade’ 28/08/2010
European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said governments risk a “lost decade” of weak economic growth if they delay reversing the surge in public debt triggered by the financial crisis.
“The lesson from past history is that dealing with the legacy of accumulated imbalances is not simply a duty to be fulfilled after the economic recovery, but rather an important precondition for sustaining a durable recovery,” Trichet said yesterday in a speech at the Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank’s annual monetary symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. “The primary macroeconomic challenge for the next 10 years is to ensure that they do not turn into another ‘lost decade.’” ... Read Bloomberg
U.S. Economy Slowed to 1.6% Pace in 2nd Quarter 27/08/2010
Economic statistics released Friday offered the clearest sign yet that the recovery, already acknowledged to be sauntering, had slowed to a crawl.
The government lowered its estimate of economic growth in the second quarter to an annual rate of 1.6 percent, after originally reporting last month that growth in the April-June period was 2.4 percent... Read New York Times
Four possible scenarios for the future of Israel 27/08/2010
In the past decades human history has advanced very fast. So, we need to have a new and unbiased look at the situation around Israel. Out of the analysis of the current situation in the Middle East, four possible scenarios for the future of Israel can be seen. All of these four scenarios demand dropping the idea of a Jewish state in the Middle East.
Read Newropeans Magazine
Chinese tourist numbers hit record, but problems emerge 27/08/2010
The number of Chinese tourists to Japan hit a record high in July, but concerns involving disappearing visitors and unscrupulous tour operators have weakened the hoopla in Japan's tourism industry.
According to data released by the Japan National Tourism Organization (JNTO) on Wednesday, 165,100 mainland Chinese arrived in Japan in July, when tourist visa requirements were eased for Chinese. It was about 2.5 times the number from a year ago and up about 60,000 from June... Read Asahi
Top economists: The second Great Depression has arrived 27/08/2010
David Rosenberg, market guru, has officially declared that the US economy is in a state of depression, and he sees the economic superpowers woes worsening.
On the heels of that bleak forecast, the statistics for existing home sales for July were released and the numbers were ugly. The weak housing market collapsed. Reflecting the worst slump in American history, existing housing sales had plummeted a stunning 27 percent and there's no sign on the horizon that sales will stabilize any time soon... Read Helium
El-Erian: How to read Bernanke’s Jackson Hole Speech 27/08/2010
Mohamed El-Erian, chief executive and co-chief investment officer at PIMCO, reacts to Fed chairman Ben Bernanke’s Jackson Hole speech.
________ In his eagerly anticipated speech at Jackson Hole, Chairman Bernanke presented an assessment of recent economic developments, the outlook, and policy implications. In doing so, he sought to recalibrate how some markets/analysts interpreted recent Fed communications, and to convey the ability of Fed policy to minimize the risk of deflation, inflation and a double dip... Read Financial Times - Alphaville
US New Home Sales Sink to Lowest Pace on Record 25/08/2010
New U.S. single-family home sales unexpectedly fell in July to set their slowest pace on record while prices were the lowest in more than 6-1/2 years, government data showed on Wednesday.
The Commerce Department said sales dropped 12.4 percent to a 276,000 unit annual rate, the lowest since the series started in 1963, from a downwardly revised 315,000 units in June... Read CNBC
Durable Goods Collapse 25/08/2010
Durable goods orders dropped 3.8% when transportation goods were backed out. Total new orders for manufactured goods rose .3%, less than expected, to $193 billion, according to the Commerce Department.
Inventories of manufactured durable goods rose .6% to $311.2 billion. The inventory build-up may give companies the opportunity to cut orders if the economy continues to slow. That should depress orders as the year goes on... Read 24/7 Wall St
USA : une "menace" pour la zone euro 25/08/2010
La principale menace pour les économies de la zone euro vient des Etats-Unis, a déclaré mercredi la ministre française de l'Economie, Christine Lagarde, dans un entretien à Reuters.
Selon elle, la question des changes sera l'un des grands sujets abordés au G8 et au G20 qui se tiendront sous présidence française en 2011... Lire Le Figaro
Bank levy passes German cabinet, heads for vote in parliament 25/08/2010
Months after Chancellor Angela Merkel conceded defeat on a G8-wide fee for banks, the German government has approved a draft bill it says will stabilize the banking system and protect taxpayers from paying for bailouts.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel's cabinet approved plans for a new fee on banks Wednesday, preparing to send the bill to a vote in parliament before the end of the year... Read Deutsche Welle
Home sales at 15-year lows 24/08/2010
Sales of previously owned U.S. homes took a record plunge in July to their slowest pace in 15 years, underlining the housing market's struggle to find its footing without government aid.
Tuesday's report from the National Association of Realtors, which was much worse than market expectations, was the latest data that indicated economic activity continued to slacken into the third quarter... Read Reuters
BOE's Weale says U.K. risks double dip: report 24/08/2010
The British pound /quotes/comstock/21o!x:sgbpusd (GBPUSD 1.5413, -0.0078, -0.5035%) was under pressure Tuesday after Martin Weale, a member of the Bank of England's rate-setting Monetary Policy Committee, warned in a newspaper interview that Britain runs the risk of slipping back into recession. Weale, the newest member of the committee, told The Times newspaper that it would be "foolish" to rule out the possibility of a double-dip recession. The pound traded at $1.5396 versus the U.S. dollar, down 0.6% from Monday...
Read Market Watch
Fed Is Replaying Credit Crisis Disaster Movie: Roach 24/08/2010
The Federal Reserve is running the risk of replaying the disaster movie that led to the credit crisis by keeping monetary policy loose for too long, Stephen Roach, non-executive chairman at Morgan Stanley, told CNBC Tuesday.
Despite the central bank's efforts to juice the economy, a double-dip recession looms, he said... Read CNBC
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GEAB N°46 - Contents- Published on June 16, 2010 -
Global systemic crisis / Second half of 2010: The global system’s four single points of failure
The second half of 2010 will thus correspond to a new step in the global geopolitical dislocation, characterized by an acceleration in the process of strategic, financial, economic and social convulsions centered on four single points of failure of the international system... (page 2) Subscribe Western public debt: When insolvency becomes intolerable Between now and the end of 2010 the whole world will have learned all the lessons from the « Greek crisis ». In fact, there are only two lessons to learn from… (page 5) Subscribe European austerity: When contextual growth is abandoned in favour of structural stability In speaking of the Eurozone we have written about « a policy » of austerity and not « policies of austerity » as indeed Germany now sets the standards on the subject... (page 8) Subscribe Chinese inflation: When China is going to begin exporting its inflation As anticipated by LEAP/E2020, the Chinese new impetus plan is coming to an end and opens up two connected problems... (page 12) Subscribe US contraction: From « hidden mass austerity » to « imposed Federal austerity » The November 2010 mid-term elections will be the first electoral test of a United States in crisis... (page 14) Read public announcement Second series of elements for a methodology of political anticipation: Questions about source material and team management Second series of excerpts from the Manual of Political Anticipation which LEAP will publish in October 2010. (page 19) Subscribe Strategic and operational recommendations for the second half of 2010 US municipal bond market (« munis »): The major shock Currencies: The hurricane will strengthen with even higher waves! World stock markets face the unthinkable Gold, cash, precious metals, real estate… (page 23) Subscribe The GlobalEurometre - Results & Analyses Those polled are now unanimously agreed (a rare case for the GlobalEurometre) calling for the establishment of European and Asiatic rating agencies so as to no longer depend on the goodwill of Moody’s, Fitch and Standard & Poor’s.… (page 26) Subscribe Special subscribers’ announcements EU-Russia seminar, Nice, September 23/24 septembre, 2010 Political Anticipation Academy, cycle 2010-2011 (page 30) Subscribe |
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