USA - November 2006 mid-term elections: towards a politico-institutional blocking in Washington, with important political, economic and commercial consequences


Abstract GEAB N°7 - Sept. 16, 2006



USA - November 2006 mid-term elections: towards a politico-institutional blocking in Washington, with important political, economic and commercial consequences
According to LEAP/E2020, the November 2006 elections will thus lead to a real political and institutional blocking of the United States (which should be even stronger if the Senate also falls in the hands of the democrats, because it will then be able to paralyse the international actions of the President). The economic as well as diplomatic consequences for the United States are foreseeable already. In such a context, with eyes fixed on the 2008 presidential elections, none of the two branches will want to assume the implementation of unpopular measures intended to rectify public finances or to soften the social shock of the recession which is announced. For the same reasons, the Democrats will refuse to singly endorse the “patriotic” cost of the necessary American withdrawal out of Iraq, and the revaluation of the war in Afghanistan. And it is very unlikely that the initiators of this policy, the White House, lose the occasion to see the Democrats bogged down in the consequences of these two wars.

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Jeudi 2 Novembre 2006

GEAB N°46 - Contents

- Published on June 16, 2010 -

Global systemic crisis / Second half of 2010: The global system’s four single points of failure
The second half of 2010 will thus correspond to a new step in the global geopolitical dislocation, characterized by an acceleration in the process of strategic, financial, economic and social convulsions centered on four single points of failure of the international system... (page 2)
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Western public debt: When insolvency becomes intolerable
Between now and the end of 2010 the whole world will have learned all the lessons from the « Greek crisis ». In fact, there are only two lessons to learn from… (page 5)
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European austerity: When contextual growth is abandoned in favour of structural stability
In speaking of the Eurozone we have written about « a policy » of austerity and not « policies of austerity » as indeed Germany now sets the standards on the subject... (page 8)
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Chinese inflation: When China is going to begin exporting its inflation
As anticipated by LEAP/E2020, the Chinese new impetus plan is coming to an end and opens up two connected problems... (page 12)
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US contraction: From « hidden mass austerity » to « imposed Federal austerity »
The November 2010 mid-term elections will be the first electoral test of a United States in crisis... (page 14)
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Second series of elements for a methodology of political anticipation: Questions about source material and team management
Second series of excerpts from the Manual of Political Anticipation which LEAP will publish in October 2010. (page 19)
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Strategic and operational recommendations for the second half of 2010
US municipal bond market (« munis »): The major shock
Currencies: The hurricane will strengthen with even higher waves!
World stock markets face the unthinkable
Gold, cash, precious metals, real estate… (page 23)
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The GlobalEurometre - Results & Analyses
Those polled are now unanimously agreed (a rare case for the GlobalEurometre) calling for the establishment of European and Asiatic rating agencies so as to no longer depend on the goodwill of Moody’s, Fitch and Standard & Poor’s.… (page 26)
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Special subscribers’ announcements
EU-Russia seminar, Nice, September 23/24 septembre, 2010
Political Anticipation Academy, cycle 2010-2011 (page 30)
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