Download GEAB N°75 (subscribers)
LEAP's political anticipation method is now studied at FEFAP 's online campus in 3 languages (English, French and German).
Presentation and Objectives
Today’s rapidly changing world requires a forecasting of its development to take any decision calmly, whether it’s an investment, a political choice or some other. This is political anticipation’s© exact objective: “plan ahead in order to act” (the term political must be understood here in the general context of a strategic, management and decision-making aspect and not in contrast with economic for example).
An illustration is given by the Global Europe Anticipation Bulletin (GEAB): it’s a tool to aid decision-making thanks to its anticipations describing the future trends and divisions by rational argument based on verifiable sources. Political anticipation© differs from forecasting in that it’s multi-sectored, analyzing the coming divisions of a system rather than prolonging past trends, and that it carries out an argued, qualitative, and not only quantitative, reasoning.
But to forecast the world’s development in all its complexity is far from easy and requires a method, which is what this political anticipation© training offers: a teaching of the method of anticipation© developed by the European Laboratory of Political Anticipation (LEAP) and a training based on numerous case studies. At the training’s conclusion, participants will have mastered the anticipation method, will be able to find the relevant sources, will have undertaken many practical exercises (including an actual anticipation), will have sharpened their critical sense as regards discussions on the future and will be able to undertake their own anticipation work.
This training is intended for all those who have to take decisions, be it within a family, a business, the public services, or other. Forecasting the world’s development also makes it possible to understand the present by understanding its dynamics, which will interest anyone concerned to get their bearings on current events.
An illustration is given by the Global Europe Anticipation Bulletin (GEAB): it’s a tool to aid decision-making thanks to its anticipations describing the future trends and divisions by rational argument based on verifiable sources. Political anticipation© differs from forecasting in that it’s multi-sectored, analyzing the coming divisions of a system rather than prolonging past trends, and that it carries out an argued, qualitative, and not only quantitative, reasoning.
But to forecast the world’s development in all its complexity is far from easy and requires a method, which is what this political anticipation© training offers: a teaching of the method of anticipation© developed by the European Laboratory of Political Anticipation (LEAP) and a training based on numerous case studies. At the training’s conclusion, participants will have mastered the anticipation method, will be able to find the relevant sources, will have undertaken many practical exercises (including an actual anticipation), will have sharpened their critical sense as regards discussions on the future and will be able to undertake their own anticipation work.
This training is intended for all those who have to take decisions, be it within a family, a business, the public services, or other. Forecasting the world’s development also makes it possible to understand the present by understanding its dynamics, which will interest anyone concerned to get their bearings on current events.
FEFAP: the partner coordinating training:
FEFAP (Fundación Educación y Formación en Anticipación Política) is a foundation under Spanish law, based in Seville, with the purpose of education and training in political anticipation©. It was constituted in the first half of 2012 thanks to a gift from its founder, Franck Biancheri. Its objective is to develop political anticipation© skills worldwide thanks to online training. Indeed it appears urgent to make up for the absence of this kind of teaching in the classic curriculum at a time when, more than ever, it’s necessary to anticipate the future to know what to do in the present. Online training technology enables access to this kind of high level teaching to be made more accessible, whilst bringing people of different countries together on the same course, thus adding an important dimension of cultural diversity. The FEFAP foundation is chaired by Jose-Maria Compagni-Morals, an executive with a Spanish technology group and a specialist in online management training for the last ten years. Marie-Hélène Caillol, the LEAP president, and author of A Manual of Political Anticipation, is vice-president.
Documents
Course notes – course notes summarizing the anticipation method© or developing a particular point.
Case Studies – a significant part of this course is based on case studies, i.e. actual examples of anticipation with evaluations for moving on to the next stage. This makes it possible to put the training on a practical basis.
Books - The Manual of Political Anticipation by Marie-Hélène Caillol should be read before training begins. Two other books are strongly recommended: The World Crisis The Path to the World Afterwards by Franck Biancheri, the first anticipation exercise covering a decade, and 2015 - the big fall of Western real estate by Sylvain Perifel and Philippe Schneider, on the Western real estate market’s development. These three books are included in the registration fee.
Videos – On some points, videos made by GEAB contributors will complement the written material.
Case Studies – a significant part of this course is based on case studies, i.e. actual examples of anticipation with evaluations for moving on to the next stage. This makes it possible to put the training on a practical basis.
Books - The Manual of Political Anticipation by Marie-Hélène Caillol should be read before training begins. Two other books are strongly recommended: The World Crisis The Path to the World Afterwards by Franck Biancheri, the first anticipation exercise covering a decade, and 2015 - the big fall of Western real estate by Sylvain Perifel and Philippe Schneider, on the Western real estate market’s development. These three books are included in the registration fee.
Videos – On some points, videos made by GEAB contributors will complement the written material.
Course roll-out and progression
10 online video sessions each lasting 1h30 making it possible to utilize the political anticipation© method thanks to the presentation of the course’s features followed by questions/answers. The students will also present their own work.
The forum, operating between sessions, is for questions between teacher and student and exchanges between students, especially on case studies. These exchanges, questions and studying the contributions of the other participants help to prepare the following session.
The forum, operating between sessions, is for questions between teacher and student and exchanges between students, especially on case studies. These exchanges, questions and studying the contributions of the other participants help to prepare the following session.
Individual Work
An online session lasts approximately 1h30. Each week, work on a case study takes place through the forum and requires about two hours work. Finally, reading the Manual of Political Anticipation is compulsory and that of the two other books mentioned above is highly recommended.
Two written assignments are to be handed in during training: a retro-anticipation and an anticipation. The first needs about 10 hours work, the second around 15 hours. They are crucial for understanding and mastering the political anticipation© method and are thus to be taken seriously. Non-return of one or both of these assignments invalidates the training.
In all, training requires an average of about 8 to 10 hours of individual work per week.
Please note: prior to registration, each participant will be required to write a two page anticipation on the subject of their choice. This will not be taken into account in the quantity of work assessed above.
Two written assignments are to be handed in during training: a retro-anticipation and an anticipation. The first needs about 10 hours work, the second around 15 hours. They are crucial for understanding and mastering the political anticipation© method and are thus to be taken seriously. Non-return of one or both of these assignments invalidates the training.
In all, training requires an average of about 8 to 10 hours of individual work per week.
Please note: prior to registration, each participant will be required to write a two page anticipation on the subject of their choice. This will not be taken into account in the quantity of work assessed above.
The sessions in detail
Session 1 - General introduction to the concept of political anticipation©.
Session 2 - Divisions, trends and their application to retro-anticipation.
Session 3 - Sources and network, critical reading of an article, an exercise in researching network sources.
Session 4 - State of mind needed, neutrality, objectivity, observation point. Presentation of the first three retro-anticipations from students.
Session 5 - Risk taking, single scenario, dating, tool to aid decision-making. Presentation of a further three retro-anticipations from students.
Session 6 - Clarity, presentation, argument and rationality. Presentation of another three retro-anticipations from students.
Session 7 - Communicating, making oneself understood, associated pressures. Presentation of the next three retro-anticipations from students.
Session 8 - Assessment of students’ anticipations, noting the change. Presentation of the subsequent three retro-anticipations from students.
Session 9 - Millenarianism, manipulation, limits and dangers of anticipation, developing one’s critical sense in the face of all discussions on the future. Presentation of the last three retro-anticipations from students.
Session 10 - Presentation of students’ work. Conclusion.
Session 2 - Divisions, trends and their application to retro-anticipation.
Session 3 - Sources and network, critical reading of an article, an exercise in researching network sources.
Session 4 - State of mind needed, neutrality, objectivity, observation point. Presentation of the first three retro-anticipations from students.
Session 5 - Risk taking, single scenario, dating, tool to aid decision-making. Presentation of a further three retro-anticipations from students.
Session 6 - Clarity, presentation, argument and rationality. Presentation of another three retro-anticipations from students.
Session 7 - Communicating, making oneself understood, associated pressures. Presentation of the next three retro-anticipations from students.
Session 8 - Assessment of students’ anticipations, noting the change. Presentation of the subsequent three retro-anticipations from students.
Session 9 - Millenarianism, manipulation, limits and dangers of anticipation, developing one’s critical sense in the face of all discussions on the future. Presentation of the last three retro-anticipations from students.
Session 10 - Presentation of students’ work. Conclusion.
Practical information
Dates – The second series of training sessions will take place from Saturday, 19th January to Saturday, 23rd March 2013. The online sessions will take place each Saturday; the fori will be held from Monday to Thursday inclusive
The final date for registration to this series is the 1st January.
Number of students – A maximum of 15 students compose a group.
Candidacy –In addition to a fact form to complete on his career and motivation, each candidate must write an anticipation exercice of two pages maximum on the topic of his choice.
Selection – Based on the fact form and the candidate’s anticipation, the FEFAP foundation’s selection committee will accept or reject the candidacy.
Fees – There are two rates:
1. Business rate: 2000€
2. Individual rate: 900€
The fee includes the three books mentioned above. Payment is due before the start of the course.
Scholarship policy – The FEFAP foundation offers up to three scholarships per session to students (exclusively) at their request and according to the quality of their candidacy, which will reduce the price of the course to €300.
Languages – Thtree courses are available: one in German, one in English and one in French. Please specify the choice of language at the time of your registration and, if possible, a second working language in case that group is full.
Diligence and diploma – The quality of the student’s work is assessed at the conclusion of the course. If considered satisfactory, a diploma is awarded together with any distinctions. However the diploma’s award is dependent on the student’s diligence and can only be acquired if he takes part in a minimum of 80% of the sessions and fori.
Upcoming courses –For those who can’t register for the first training course, or if the groups are full, two other courses are planned. They will take place from the 13th April to the 15th June and from 12th October to December 14th 2013.
Contact – For more information and to obtain an application form, please contact Laure Simonetti at info@fefap.eu.
The final date for registration to this series is the 1st January.
Number of students – A maximum of 15 students compose a group.
Candidacy –In addition to a fact form to complete on his career and motivation, each candidate must write an anticipation exercice of two pages maximum on the topic of his choice.
Selection – Based on the fact form and the candidate’s anticipation, the FEFAP foundation’s selection committee will accept or reject the candidacy.
Fees – There are two rates:
1. Business rate: 2000€
2. Individual rate: 900€
The fee includes the three books mentioned above. Payment is due before the start of the course.
Scholarship policy – The FEFAP foundation offers up to three scholarships per session to students (exclusively) at their request and according to the quality of their candidacy, which will reduce the price of the course to €300.
Languages – Thtree courses are available: one in German, one in English and one in French. Please specify the choice of language at the time of your registration and, if possible, a second working language in case that group is full.
Diligence and diploma – The quality of the student’s work is assessed at the conclusion of the course. If considered satisfactory, a diploma is awarded together with any distinctions. However the diploma’s award is dependent on the student’s diligence and can only be acquired if he takes part in a minimum of 80% of the sessions and fori.
Upcoming courses –For those who can’t register for the first training course, or if the groups are full, two other courses are planned. They will take place from the 13th April to the 15th June and from 12th October to December 14th 2013.
Contact – For more information and to obtain an application form, please contact Laure Simonetti at info@fefap.eu.
GEAB N°75 is available! Systemic crisis 2013: with record stock exchange highs, the planet’s imminent plunge into recession
