MAP6-Euro-BRICS special! Euro-BRICS Partnership : The path to the world after the crisis, by Franck Biancheri


Edito MAP6-Euro-BRICS Special - May 2012



A Euro-BRICS special issue of MAP in partnership with Moscow's MGIMO University

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With this special MAP issue devoted to future Euro-BRICS co-operation, LEAP/E2020 continues its exploration of the path which leads to the world after the crisis. In this case, with the Euro-BRICS partnership it’s a question of anticipating the processes which will make it possible to build twenty first century governance and allow a peaceful rebalancing of relations between the planet’s key powers.

If we have chosen to publish this number right after the French presidential election, it’s not by chance. Indeed, Nicolas Sarkozy’s defeat marks the end of France’s Americanist interlude which led the country to completely align itself with the geopolitical positions of the Washington/London/Tel Aviv axis for the last 5 years. François Hollande’s victory, on the contrary, marks not only the return to a Gaullist-Mitterand geopolitical vision (a vision of an independent Europe, but also the assertion of the necessity, even the urgency, for exploring new relations with the BRICS.

As one can see in this MAP number, Euro-BRICS co-operation is already well advanced in many fields (science, technology, economy…) but it is still missing a clear politico-diplomatic frame of reference which alone will enable this relationship to have a constructive impact on the world’s progress. Germany already opened up the way in 2011 at the UN Security Council in connection with Libyan military intervention, with China, Russia and Brazil abstaining. But, because of the Americanist positions taken by France, nothing structural could emerge on the issue of furthering Euroland and the BRICS’ common interests. However, from the world economic and financial crisis to the Euroland sovereign debt crisis via Western military adventures’ obvious dead end, the areas of convergence between Europeans on the one hand, and Russians, Chinese, Indians, Brazilians and South Africans on the other, are numerous. And the change of power in France will justly allow Euroland, or at least a core of pioneer countries around the Franco-German pair, to lay down the bases of a true Euro-BRICS strategic partnership by 2013.

Of course, as in any partnership, there are also many areas of friction and disagreements exist. But it’s precisely for this reason that such a dialogue is necessary. If a Euro-BRICS politico-diplomatic frame of reference existed, tensions over the European carbon tax on non-European airline companies would not have poisoned relations for months between Brussels on the one hand, and Beijing, Moscow, New Delhi on the other. Indeed, a “facilitator” would have been nominated at European level a long time ago to find common ground between the various partners, in particular at International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) level, instead of letting the European Commission force the EU into an intolerable position in the long term. The facilitator would thus be able to circumvent the ideological attitude of the Commissioner in charge of the case, Connie Hedegaard (1), and avoid the rising strength of a confrontation which can only do a disservice to co-operation between Europe and the BRICS.

Beyond this example, and those of numerous Euro-BRICS bilateral cooperation, it’s certainly within the G20 that the role of such a partnership will make itself felt from 2013. On the questions of the reform of the international monetary system and in particular the world’s reserve currency, just as over the problems of control of the major private financial players, Euroland and the BRICS have strongly convergent strategic interests. And together, they constitute the bulk of the G20. Therefore, it’s from them and them alone that a vision of the world after the crisis can come to the fore; and the force to carry it out. Because as LEAP/E2020 has emphasized from 2009 and the London G20 summit, without a questioning of the US Dollar’s role and strict control of the major private financial institutions, there will be no possible exit from the crisis.

However, in this month of May 2012, for the first time since the beginning of the world crisis, conditions appear to us to have now come together to be able to move quickly forward as regards Euro-BRICS strategic co-operation and thus to improve the chances of overcoming the current crisis.

Along with all the MAP team we hope, therefore, that this special MAP issue will help to give you an idea of the path to take in the coming years; and offer you a clearer vision of the major geopolitical changes that the next few years will bring compared to the world we have known since 1945.

One last point, this special MAP Euro-BRICS issue will be available not only in French, English, German and Spanish as usual; but also in Portuguese, Russian and Chinese.

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Notes:

(1) About this topic, I would like to stress that the same Connie Hedegaard, Danish Minister for Environment at this time, had to leave the Presidency of the Copenhagen Environment Summit in December 2009, because of a general revolt against the way she dealt with the negociations. A “detail” that shouldn’t be forgotten by the Europeans now that they are discussing with the BRICS about this carbon tax. Source : Guardian, 16.12.09

Download MAP6-Euro-BRICS special (free)

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CONTENTS

EDITO - Euro-BRICS Partnership : The path to the world after the crisis, by Franck Biancheri (p.3)

INSTITUTIONS - Results of the fourth BRICS summit and the outlook for cooperation between the BRICS and the European Union, by Prof. Valery Vorobiev (p.5)

FRAME OF REFERENCE - Extract from the conclusions of the Euro-BRICS Process founding seminar, by LEAP (p.7)

STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIP - Prospects of a EuroBRICS strategic cooperation: a view from Brazil, by Alexander Zhebit (p.9)

GEOPOLITICS - Russia and Brazil in the BRICS group - future ambitions, by Ludmila Okouneva (p.12)

ECONOMY - The Role of Euro-BRICS cooperation, by Chandrasekharan Jayanthi (p.14)

TRADE - BRICS cooperation serving trade policy formation and the priorities of BRICS and Euro-BRICS cooperation, by Dr. Tatiana M. Isachenko (p.20)

MONETARY SYSTEM - China’s Policymakers One Inch Closer to Opening Capital Account, by Zhu Changzheng (p.22)

EDUCATION - Prospects for collaboration in the knowledge economy field, by Anna Makarenko (p.25)

REPORT : AEROPACE

. The European path to space is via China and Russia, by Stefan Hilgermann (p.27)

. Aerospace Euro-BRICS and sovereign technologies: Space, by Jean-Paul Baquiast (p.29)

. Aerospace Europe, BRICS and Space: A contribution to the debate on Euro-BRICS cooperation in space activities, by Tanja Masson-Zwaan (p.31)

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Mercredi 23 Mai 2012
LEAP/E2020 - MGIMO
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GEAB N°90 - Contents

- Published on December 15, 2014 -

Global systemic crisis 2015 – Oil, currencies, finance, societies, the Middle East : Massive storm in the Western port!

. « Global systemic crisis: the end of the West we have known since 1945 »
. The oil crisis is systemic because it is linked to the end of the all-oil era
. The US in one hell of a state
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. Three missions for the new Europe: resolve the Ukrainian crisis, put Euro-Russian relations back on the right path, avoid a European QE
. Middle East: traditional alliances’ big waltz
. Saudi Arabia, Iran: the allies change sides
. And Western « values » in all this
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2015 – new phase of the crisis: the oil systemic crisis

. The impact of speculation
. Price War
. Systemic oil crisis and finance
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Investments, trends and recommendations

. Oil: beware!
. Energy intensive industries like airline companies
. Renewable energy: the good and the bad
. 2015: Euro & Yen rebound
. Gold: still safe
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Evaluation of our anticipations for 2014
(from GEAB N° 81 in January 2014): a 69% success rate
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