MAP2-Winter 2011 - Content

- MAP2 in English is available (and it's free!) -

EDITO - The wave of Jasmine Revolution : the great return of the Arab world, by Marie-Hélène Caillol

MAP2-Winter 2011 - Content
The hopes of the Arab world to catch the train of the 21st century had gone lost: Asia and South America took hold of their destiny while the Arab world plunge into obscurantism. For several years, and until two months ago, the Arab world evoked more and more a third-world populated by fanatical men in shaggy beards and wild eyes. And now it shakes up his yoke and it is rediscovered in these young people societies all that is pretty normal, boys and girls in Tunisia, Egypt, Jordan, etc ... that are simply asking to have a future in their country.

Download PDF (free)

ANTICIPATION - Cyberspace, Cyberconflicts, Cybercleverness and social movements, by Jérôme Defaix

It took five centuries since the invention of printing by Gutenberg in 1450, to produce Bible-books, books, newspapers, essays, leaflets. These physical media have allowed the distribution of information, messages that can be defined as «one to many“, in an descendent communication, more and more effective to convince, indoctrinate, explain, justify, to silence, excite, pacify the crowds, to the benefit of an elite group of supporters of the message, to manage groups or societies that are increasingly complex. This distribution, organized by traditional mediators, educators, journalists, intellectuals, leaders, visionaries, politicians, goes through doctrine, education, knowledge, culture, ideology, marketing, propaganda, political story-telling, political jargon, among others.

Download PDF (free)

COMMENT - Southern Sudan: a first step towards the inevitable reconfiguration of African borders, by Franck Biancheri

With the recent UN-supervised Southern Sudanese referendum, which provides for the restructuring of Sudan’s vast territory and, as is the case in most African countries, its frontiers bequeathed from the colonial era, Africans have begun the long process that will give them genuine mastery over their continent: the construction of their own internal borders.

Download PDF (free)

USER'S GUIDE - Anticipation GEAB / Arab World : a textbook case

Here is a summary of the elements that allowed GEAB giving its anticipation of the risks of political and social explosion in the Arab world in June 2008.

Download PDF (free)

ANTICIPATION - International food policy: towards a “diplomatic revolution”, by Bruno Paul

The problem has become inevitable for our policy makers: How to feed the world’s current and future population? From recent studies and projections we will highlight the new central issues concerning the geopolitics of food, in order to provide elements that can help decision making.

Download PDF (free)

THE MAP QUESTION - In what year was made this anticipation?

"When the wireless will be used perfectly, the whole Earth will become a giant brain, that is, what is the Earth is already in practice since all things are nothing but particles of a single rhythmical and authentic set. We will be able to communicate with each other instantly, regardless of the distance. And there is more, because thanks to television and telephone, we can see and feel perfectly as if we were face to face, even though thousands of miles separate us, and the devices that allow us to do so will incredibly be simpler than current phones. The man can carry it in his jacket pocket."

Download PDF (free)

ABTICIPATION - The crisis: a source of banking innovation? by Ludovic Follot

The financial crisis has had the merit of demonstrating the extent to which our daily life depends on financial institutions and more specifically on the banks. Everyone has now fully accepted that our estate loans and its eventual consumer credits, both in Europe and the United States, have been the basis of economic expansion over the past 30 years. Retail banks and investment banks have been key players in this game, and they have played their role perfectly, allowing Western companies to satisfy their insatiable consumer appetite taking money and then giving it at a little higher loan rates.

Download PDF (free)

SOURCES - A readers’ digest

MAP's quarterly selection of web articles.

Download PDF (free)

COMMENT - The humor of El JEm

This quarter, El Jem has chosen to comment on the article entitled “Why almost everything you hear about medicine is wrong” published on January 23, 2011 by Newsweek and republished on January 27, 2011 by Nouvel Observateur which provides a brief overview of the situation of pharmaceutical industry.

Download PDF (free)

GEAB EXCERPT - 2012-2013: The double electoral shock of French and German elections

According to LEAP/E2020, the French elections in 2012 (presidential election followed by the legislative elections) and the German federal elections planned for 2013 will set the scene for two major shocks destined to disrupt the balances of political power in these two pillars of Euroland and the European Union. Their simultaneous timing and – despite reverse agendas – their similar effects, will provide further evidence of the brutal changes to the national political and social fabric as a result of the global systemic crisis. This double shock will also define the fundamental nature of Europe’s political leadership, when a new generation of world leaders is faced, as a group, with a last chance to prevent the global geopolitical dislocation from morphing into widespread confrontation.

Download PDF (free)

FUTURHEBDO - February 20, 2060 : Shoot again, by Olivier Parent

FuturHebdo is the magazine of our immediate future. Taking the approach of press dispatches for a hypothetical publication, FH proposes to explore our daily life such as it could be in a few decades. Created in 2006, FH provides a weekly popularized prospectivist article, in the social, medical, economic, and political spheres…

Download PDF (free)

COMMENT - Does current English takes the place of medieval Latin? by Christian Tremblay, President of the Observatoire Européen du Plurilinguisme

It is often said that English is in the position Latin occupied in last centuries. In any case, this is certainly a good argument for the promotion of English, which needs to be promoted. But although it can be irritating, it’s better to know it: this is just a promotional argument. The only aspect that the American hegemony and the Roman Empire share is hegemony.

Download PDF (free)

FICTION - Jacques Spitz’s L’oeil du Purgatoire

A forgotten masterpiece of French literature, a classic of French futuristic fiction, L’oeil du Purgatoire (translated into English as The Eye of Purgatory), published for the first time in 1945 and reprinted (as well as magnificently illustrated) in 2008 by Editions de l’Arbre Vengeur, is an eminently aesthetic and philosophical portrayal of the gift (or curse) to forsee the future, presented in all its tragedy.

Download PDF (free)

Mercredi 23 Mars 2011
Lu 5787 fois

GEAB N°90 - Contents

- Published on December 15, 2014 -

Global systemic crisis 2015 – Oil, currencies, finance, societies, the Middle East : Massive storm in the Western port!

. « Global systemic crisis: the end of the West we have known since 1945 »
. The oil crisis is systemic because it is linked to the end of the all-oil era
. The US in one hell of a state
. Europe post-Ukraine: lots of questions
. Three missions for the new Europe: resolve the Ukrainian crisis, put Euro-Russian relations back on the right path, avoid a European QE
. Middle East: traditional alliances’ big waltz
. Saudi Arabia, Iran: the allies change sides
. And Western « values » in all this
Read the public announcement

2015 – new phase of the crisis: the oil systemic crisis

. The impact of speculation
. Price War
. Systemic oil crisis and finance
. Systemic oil crisis and geopolitics

Investments, trends and recommendations

. Oil: beware!
. Energy intensive industries like airline companies
. Renewable energy: the good and the bad
. 2015: Euro & Yen rebound
. Gold: still safe

Evaluation of our anticipations for 2014
(from GEAB N° 81 in January 2014): a 69% success rate