MAP2-Winter 2011 - Content


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EDITO - The wave of Jasmine Revolution : the great return of the Arab world, by Marie-Hélène Caillol

MAP2-Winter 2011 - Content
The hopes of the Arab world to catch the train of the 21st century had gone lost: Asia and South America took hold of their destiny while the Arab world plunge into obscurantism. For several years, and until two months ago, the Arab world evoked more and more a third-world populated by fanatical men in shaggy beards and wild eyes. And now it shakes up his yoke and it is rediscovered in these young people societies all that is pretty normal, boys and girls in Tunisia, Egypt, Jordan, etc ... that are simply asking to have a future in their country.

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ANTICIPATION - Cyberspace, Cyberconflicts, Cybercleverness and social movements, by Jérôme Defaix

It took five centuries since the invention of printing by Gutenberg in 1450, to produce Bible-books, books, newspapers, essays, leaflets. These physical media have allowed the distribution of information, messages that can be defined as «one to many“, in an descendent communication, more and more effective to convince, indoctrinate, explain, justify, to silence, excite, pacify the crowds, to the benefit of an elite group of supporters of the message, to manage groups or societies that are increasingly complex. This distribution, organized by traditional mediators, educators, journalists, intellectuals, leaders, visionaries, politicians, goes through doctrine, education, knowledge, culture, ideology, marketing, propaganda, political story-telling, political jargon, among others.

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COMMENT - Southern Sudan: a first step towards the inevitable reconfiguration of African borders, by Franck Biancheri

With the recent UN-supervised Southern Sudanese referendum, which provides for the restructuring of Sudan’s vast territory and, as is the case in most African countries, its frontiers bequeathed from the colonial era, Africans have begun the long process that will give them genuine mastery over their continent: the construction of their own internal borders.

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USER'S GUIDE - Anticipation GEAB / Arab World : a textbook case

Here is a summary of the elements that allowed GEAB giving its anticipation of the risks of political and social explosion in the Arab world in June 2008.

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ANTICIPATION - International food policy: towards a “diplomatic revolution”, by Bruno Paul

The problem has become inevitable for our policy makers: How to feed the world’s current and future population? From recent studies and projections we will highlight the new central issues concerning the geopolitics of food, in order to provide elements that can help decision making.

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THE MAP QUESTION - In what year was made this anticipation?

"When the wireless will be used perfectly, the whole Earth will become a giant brain, that is, what is the Earth is already in practice since all things are nothing but particles of a single rhythmical and authentic set. We will be able to communicate with each other instantly, regardless of the distance. And there is more, because thanks to television and telephone, we can see and feel perfectly as if we were face to face, even though thousands of miles separate us, and the devices that allow us to do so will incredibly be simpler than current phones. The man can carry it in his jacket pocket."

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ABTICIPATION - The crisis: a source of banking innovation? by Ludovic Follot

The financial crisis has had the merit of demonstrating the extent to which our daily life depends on financial institutions and more specifically on the banks. Everyone has now fully accepted that our estate loans and its eventual consumer credits, both in Europe and the United States, have been the basis of economic expansion over the past 30 years. Retail banks and investment banks have been key players in this game, and they have played their role perfectly, allowing Western companies to satisfy their insatiable consumer appetite taking money and then giving it at a little higher loan rates.

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SOURCES - A readers’ digest

MAP's quarterly selection of web articles.

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COMMENT - The humor of El JEm

This quarter, El Jem has chosen to comment on the article entitled “Why almost everything you hear about medicine is wrong” published on January 23, 2011 by Newsweek and republished on January 27, 2011 by Nouvel Observateur which provides a brief overview of the situation of pharmaceutical industry.

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GEAB EXCERPT - 2012-2013: The double electoral shock of French and German elections

According to LEAP/E2020, the French elections in 2012 (presidential election followed by the legislative elections) and the German federal elections planned for 2013 will set the scene for two major shocks destined to disrupt the balances of political power in these two pillars of Euroland and the European Union. Their simultaneous timing and – despite reverse agendas – their similar effects, will provide further evidence of the brutal changes to the national political and social fabric as a result of the global systemic crisis. This double shock will also define the fundamental nature of Europe’s political leadership, when a new generation of world leaders is faced, as a group, with a last chance to prevent the global geopolitical dislocation from morphing into widespread confrontation.

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FUTURHEBDO - February 20, 2060 : Shoot again, by Olivier Parent

FuturHebdo is the magazine of our immediate future. Taking the approach of press dispatches for a hypothetical publication, FH proposes to explore our daily life such as it could be in a few decades. Created in 2006, FH provides a weekly popularized prospectivist article, in the social, medical, economic, and political spheres…

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COMMENT - Does current English takes the place of medieval Latin? by Christian Tremblay, President of the Observatoire Européen du Plurilinguisme

It is often said that English is in the position Latin occupied in last centuries. In any case, this is certainly a good argument for the promotion of English, which needs to be promoted. But although it can be irritating, it’s better to know it: this is just a promotional argument. The only aspect that the American hegemony and the Roman Empire share is hegemony.

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FICTION - Jacques Spitz’s L’oeil du Purgatoire

A forgotten masterpiece of French literature, a classic of French futuristic fiction, L’oeil du Purgatoire (translated into English as The Eye of Purgatory), published for the first time in 1945 and reprinted (as well as magnificently illustrated) in 2008 by Editions de l’Arbre Vengeur, is an eminently aesthetic and philosophical portrayal of the gift (or curse) to forsee the future, presented in all its tragedy.

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Mercredi 23 Mars 2011
LEAP/MAP
Lu 5321 fois

GEAB N°75 - Contents

- Published on May 16, 2013 -

Systemic crisis 2013: with record stock exchange highs, the planets imminent plunge into recession
The world economy is slowing down badly and a widespread recession is looming. The various players are fully aware of it and, in the face of the challenges of an imminent collapse, countries or regions are putting various strategies in place to try and limit the consequences… (page 2)
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BoJ, Fed, ECB : with different methods, contrasting futures
In order to see the unfolding of the global systemic crisis more clearly, we must understand how the major western central banks act, the limits, the advantages, and the disadvantages of their interventions. We explain their policies in broad terms… (page 9)
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GEAB Dollar and Euro index
The traditional Dollar Index (used by the financial markets) is an unreliable indicator for forecasting US Dollar developments. Henceforth, our team will also publish the GEAB $ index together with the GEAB € index… (page 14)
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Strategic and operational recommendations
. Decoupling of paper and physical gold
. European sovereign bonds: the ECB is still the boss
. Stock exchanges: when QE rains money ! … (page 17)
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The GlobalEurometre - Results and analysis
The general tone of this month's poll is sombre, to say the least. Confidence in the capacity to manage the Euro crisis has literally collapsed this month, the fear of losing money has significantly risen … (page 18)
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