LEAP's method of Political Anticipation enters field of scientific complex system analysis




Political anticipation as a decision-making instrument has recently made a significant progress in terms of recognition by the scientific community. Indeed Marie-Hélène Caillol, president of LEAP/E2020 and author of "A Manual of Political Anticipation" (Anticipolis, 2010), has been asked to contribute to the special "Anticipation" issue (Volume 41, Issue 1, 2012) (coordinated by Professor Mihai Nadin) of US scientific review the International Journal of General Systems (Francis & Taylor), a cross-disciplinary periodical primarily devoted to the publication of original research contributions to system science, basic as well as applied. The resulting article is entitled: "Political anticipation: observing and understanding global socio-economic trends with a view to guide the decision-making processes"...

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Vendredi 6 Janvier 2012
LEAP/E2020
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GEAB N°75 - Contents

- Published on May 16, 2013 -

Systemic crisis 2013: with record stock exchange highs, the planets imminent plunge into recession
The world economy is slowing down badly and a widespread recession is looming. The various players are fully aware of it and, in the face of the challenges of an imminent collapse, countries or regions are putting various strategies in place to try and limit the consequences… (page 2)
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BoJ, Fed, ECB : with different methods, contrasting futures
In order to see the unfolding of the global systemic crisis more clearly, we must understand how the major western central banks act, the limits, the advantages, and the disadvantages of their interventions. We explain their policies in broad terms… (page 9)
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GEAB Dollar and Euro index
The traditional Dollar Index (used by the financial markets) is an unreliable indicator for forecasting US Dollar developments. Henceforth, our team will also publish the GEAB $ index together with the GEAB € index… (page 14)
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Strategic and operational recommendations
. Decoupling of paper and physical gold
. European sovereign bonds: the ECB is still the boss
. Stock exchanges: when QE rains money ! … (page 17)
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The GlobalEurometre - Results and analysis
The general tone of this month's poll is sombre, to say the least. Confidence in the capacity to manage the Euro crisis has literally collapsed this month, the fear of losing money has significantly risen … (page 18)
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