GLOBAL SYSTEMIC CRISIS Press clippings
UK house prices fall for second monthTelegraph
GM, Ford post double-digit drop in August salesMarket Watch
Beck, Palin tell thousands to 'restore America'Washington Post
U.S. Economy Slowed to 1.6% Pace in 2nd QuarterNew York Times
Four possible scenarios for the future of IsraelNewropeans Magazine
El-Erian: How to read Bernanke’s Jackson Hole SpeechFinancial Times - Alphaville
Durable Goods Collapse24/7 Wall St
Subscribe this free Press Review
|
June 2006 - Beginning of phase 2 of the global systemic crisis: the phase of acceleration - Consequences for economic and political players and decision-makersAnnoucement GEAB N°5 – May 15, 2006Last February, LEAP/E2020 anticipated that a global systemic crisis was to be triggered at the end of March. Today, three months later, LEAP/E2020 can anticipate that the initial phase of this crisis is about to be finished and that, as soon as the beginning of June 2006, the crisis will enter a phase of acceleration. Before detailing the main features of this new phase (described in GEAB Nr5 ), LEAP/E2020 would like to clarify the 4 different phases of a global systemic crisis.
A global systemic crisis develops following a complex process where 4 phases can be distinguished, overlapping one another: . in the first so-called trigger phase, a variety of until then un-related factors, start converging and interacting in a way that is perceptible mostly by careful observers and central players . in the second acceleration phase, a large majority of players and observers suddenly become aware that a crisis is there and that it has already begun to affect a growing amount of the system's components . in the third so-called impact phase, the system starts to transform radically (implosion and/or explosion) under the strain of cumulated factors, simultaneously affecting the whole system . in the fourth and last decanting phase, the features of the new system born from the crisis begin to appear.
In the present situation, LEAP/E2020 estimates that the initial trigger-phase is about to finish and that, during June 2006, the world will enter a phase of acceleration of the crisis. Indeed,
in less than three months, many certainties as to the future were
turned upside down (« inescapable » dollar-denomination, « return » to
cheap oil, « peaceful » solution to the Iran/USA conflict,
« sustainability » of the US real-estate bubble, US « domination » over
two other key global players - China and Russia,
) and a great number
of indicators now point at converging directions, all of them sources
of unbalance for the current system (vertiginous rise in gold and
precious metals prices, escalation of inflationary pressures, increase
of the interest rates, EURUSD approaching 1.30, large amounts of
central banks' reserves being switched to Euros, rise of Asian
currencies, stock market and currency crises developing in various
areas in the world, growing amounts of articles published in the
international and national press using words such as « krach, crisis,
collapse, risk, conflict,
» ).
Figure 1 - Evolution Dow Jones/M3 --- Dow Jones/Gold - source : www.sirchartsalot.com
According
to LEAP/E2020, this « trigger-phase » can be seen as a « learning »
phase for the system's players. Some of them properly anticipated the
evolution and bet on a breakdown of dominant trends. While they still
seemed marginal and irrational to the majority a few weeks ago, they
now appear to have « won » when the majority has « lost » following the
system's normal trends. This lesson conveys cumulative effects and
soon considerably strengthens all breakdown tendencies, resulting in
switching from trigger-phase to acceleration-phase. It also reinforces
the conviction of the strategic players who got involved into breakdown
policies (or who anticipated the breakdown), and weakens in a
sustainable way all regulation capacities of the system now faced to a
soon generalized crisis of confidence. Well, in the current system, one
inherited from WWI and transformed by the fall of the Iron Curtain,
whether it is in the financial, economic, monetary or strategic sector,
everything relies on the trust granted by each of us to one central
player (the US ) and to the different components of its might. The
passage from phase 1 to phase 2 marks the collapse of this trust,
sector by sector.
Figure 2- Saisies immobilières
aux Etats-Unis
LEAP/E2020 therefore estimates that these sectoral losses of confidence
will converge in the course of June 2006, and induce the acceleration
of the crisis process. The acceleration should elapse over 3 to 6
months and convey seven concrete consequences:
The passage to phase 3 (so-called « impact-phase ») of the global systemic crisis process will occur when at least four of the previously mentioned factors will have taken place. Simultaneously, it is possible, during the acceleration-phase already, to distinguish some of the tendencies that will shape up the future global system, and therefore to start initiating the decisions and policies likely to prepare a post-crisis future. Mardi 3 Octobre 2006
In the same category:
|
GEAB N°46 - Contents- Published on June 16, 2010 -
Global systemic crisis / Second half of 2010: The global system’s four single points of failure
The second half of 2010 will thus correspond to a new step in the global geopolitical dislocation, characterized by an acceleration in the process of strategic, financial, economic and social convulsions centered on four single points of failure of the international system... (page 2) Subscribe Western public debt: When insolvency becomes intolerable Between now and the end of 2010 the whole world will have learned all the lessons from the « Greek crisis ». In fact, there are only two lessons to learn from… (page 5) Subscribe European austerity: When contextual growth is abandoned in favour of structural stability In speaking of the Eurozone we have written about « a policy » of austerity and not « policies of austerity » as indeed Germany now sets the standards on the subject... (page 8) Subscribe Chinese inflation: When China is going to begin exporting its inflation As anticipated by LEAP/E2020, the Chinese new impetus plan is coming to an end and opens up two connected problems... (page 12) Subscribe US contraction: From « hidden mass austerity » to « imposed Federal austerity » The November 2010 mid-term elections will be the first electoral test of a United States in crisis... (page 14) Read public announcement Second series of elements for a methodology of political anticipation: Questions about source material and team management Second series of excerpts from the Manual of Political Anticipation which LEAP will publish in October 2010. (page 19) Subscribe Strategic and operational recommendations for the second half of 2010 US municipal bond market (« munis »): The major shock Currencies: The hurricane will strengthen with even higher waves! World stock markets face the unthinkable Gold, cash, precious metals, real estate… (page 23) Subscribe The GlobalEurometre - Results & Analyses Those polled are now unanimously agreed (a rare case for the GlobalEurometre) calling for the establishment of European and Asiatic rating agencies so as to no longer depend on the goodwill of Moody’s, Fitch and Standard & Poor’s.… (page 26) Subscribe Special subscribers’ announcements EU-Russia seminar, Nice, September 23/24 septembre, 2010 Political Anticipation Academy, cycle 2010-2011 (page 30) Subscribe |
Subscribe to our free Press Review
Second half of 2010: Sudden intensification of the global systemic crisis – Strengthening of five fundamental negative trends