'El 76% de los europeos creen que la crisis no finalizará antes de 2012' (GlobalEurometre de junio de 2009)
'76 percent of the Europeans estimate that the crisis will not be over by 2012' (GlobalEurometre June 2009)
'76% des Européens estiment que la crise ne sera pas terminée d'ici 2012' (GlobalEuromètre de juin 2009)
'76% der Europäer gehen davon aus, dass die Krise nicht bis 2012 beendet sein wird' (GlobalEurometer Juni 2009)
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GLOBAL SYSTEMIC CRISIS Press clippings
La Société Générale tire la sonnette d’alarmeJournal des Finances
Jobs reports 'riddled with inaccuracies'USA Today
Japan says economy back in deflationFinancial Times
One Million Americans Face Loss Of Jobless Benefits In January24/7 Wall Street
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June 2006 - Beginning of phase 2 of the global systemic crisis: the phase of acceleration - Consequences for economic and political players and decision-makersAnnoucement GEAB N°5 – May 15, 2006Last February, LEAP/E2020 anticipated that a global systemic crisis was to be triggered at the end of March. Today, three months later, LEAP/E2020 can anticipate that the initial phase of this crisis is about to be finished and that, as soon as the beginning of June 2006, the crisis will enter a phase of acceleration. Before detailing the main features of this new phase (described in GEAB Nr5 ), LEAP/E2020 would like to clarify the 4 different phases of a global systemic crisis.
A global systemic crisis develops following a complex process where 4 phases can be distinguished, overlapping one another: . in the first so-called trigger phase, a variety of until then un-related factors, start converging and interacting in a way that is perceptible mostly by careful observers and central players . in the second acceleration phase, a large majority of players and observers suddenly become aware that a crisis is there and that it has already begun to affect a growing amount of the system's components . in the third so-called impact phase, the system starts to transform radically (implosion and/or explosion) under the strain of cumulated factors, simultaneously affecting the whole system . in the fourth and last decanting phase, the features of the new system born from the crisis begin to appear.
In the present situation, LEAP/E2020 estimates that the initial trigger-phase is about to finish and that, during June 2006, the world will enter a phase of acceleration of the crisis. Indeed,
in less than three months, many certainties as to the future were
turned upside down (« inescapable » dollar-denomination, « return » to
cheap oil, « peaceful » solution to the Iran/USA conflict,
« sustainability » of the US real-estate bubble, US « domination » over
two other key global players - China and Russia,
) and a great number
of indicators now point at converging directions, all of them sources
of unbalance for the current system (vertiginous rise in gold and
precious metals prices, escalation of inflationary pressures, increase
of the interest rates, EURUSD approaching 1.30, large amounts of
central banks' reserves being switched to Euros, rise of Asian
currencies, stock market and currency crises developing in various
areas in the world, growing amounts of articles published in the
international and national press using words such as « krach, crisis,
collapse, risk, conflict,
» ).
Figure 1 - Evolution Dow Jones/M3 --- Dow Jones/Gold - source : www.sirchartsalot.com
According
to LEAP/E2020, this « trigger-phase » can be seen as a « learning »
phase for the system's players. Some of them properly anticipated the
evolution and bet on a breakdown of dominant trends. While they still
seemed marginal and irrational to the majority a few weeks ago, they
now appear to have « won » when the majority has « lost » following the
system's normal trends. This lesson conveys cumulative effects and
soon considerably strengthens all breakdown tendencies, resulting in
switching from trigger-phase to acceleration-phase. It also reinforces
the conviction of the strategic players who got involved into breakdown
policies (or who anticipated the breakdown), and weakens in a
sustainable way all regulation capacities of the system now faced to a
soon generalized crisis of confidence. Well, in the current system, one
inherited from WWI and transformed by the fall of the Iron Curtain,
whether it is in the financial, economic, monetary or strategic sector,
everything relies on the trust granted by each of us to one central
player (the US ) and to the different components of its might. The
passage from phase 1 to phase 2 marks the collapse of this trust,
sector by sector.
Figure 2- Saisies immobilières
aux Etats-Unis
LEAP/E2020 therefore estimates that these sectoral losses of confidence
will converge in the course of June 2006, and induce the acceleration
of the crisis process. The acceleration should elapse over 3 to 6
months and convey seven concrete consequences:
The passage to phase 3 (so-called « impact-phase ») of the global systemic crisis process will occur when at least four of the previously mentioned factors will have taken place. Simultaneously, it is possible, during the acceleration-phase already, to distinguish some of the tendencies that will shape up the future global system, and therefore to start initiating the decisions and policies likely to prepare a post-crisis future. Mardi 3 Octobre 2006
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GEAB N°39 - Contents- Published on November 16, 2009 -
Global systemic crisis – States faced with three brutal options in 2010: inflation, high taxation or default
In the absence of major reappraisal of the international monetary order, the world is now entering the phase of geopolitical dislocation of the global systemic crisis. In 2010, as protectionism and the economic and social depression will gain momentum, a large number of States will be compelled to choose between three brutal options: inflation, high taxation or defaulting on their debt... (page 2) Read public announcement The end of the consumer-as-we-knew-him in the past thirty years For sure the American consumer, incarnation of the American Dream since Henry Ford, has died. But the Western consumer (outside the US) as we knew him in the past thirty years is also wearing out. In addition to that, LEAP/E2020 believes that it is wrong to think that Asians and Latin-Americans will replace these « consuming machines » and enable « planet-profit » to go on as it used to do… (page 6) Subscribe Crisis exit: In collision with reality – Real state of things at the end of 2009: USA, Euroland, China The United States, United Kingdom, or even Japan, striving to escape from defaulting, or France and Germany left with no other choice than raise taxes by the end of 2010, in any event, in 2010, as inflation will affect necessity goods and speculative assets, anti-crisis policies and the reality of the global systemic crisis will collide… (page 11) Subscribe Turkey’s awakening: Its gradual exit from the Western camp Taking advantage of the ongoing systemic crisis, and of the weakening of the US and of the Western superstructure over which the latter’s might is based, Turkey has entered a process of fundamental redefinition of its key geopolitical interests. The new priorities ready to break out by 2012 will account for Ankara’s most profound reappraisal since the country joined NATO in 1952… (page 16) Subscribe Strategic and operational recommendations . Currencies/Gold: Trends are being confirmed . Real estate: Renting or buying? A choice requiring careful consideration . Shares/Bonds: The tipping point is approaching . « Liquidity surplus »: An iconoclastic explanation (page 20) Subscribe The GlobalEurometre - Results & Analyses The unanimity of respondents (99 percent) sees no sign of economic improvement in their country… (page 22) Subscribe |
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