June 2006 - Beginning of phase 2 of the global systemic crisis: the phase of acceleration - Consequences for economic and political players and decision-makers


Annoucement GEAB N°5 – May 15, 2006


Last February, LEAP/E2020 anticipated that a global systemic crisis was to be triggered at the end of March. Today, three months later, LEAP/E2020 can anticipate that the initial phase of this crisis is about to be finished and that, as soon as the beginning of June 2006, the crisis will enter a phase of acceleration. Before detailing the main features of this new phase (described in GEAB Nr5 ), LEAP/E2020 would like to clarify the 4 different phases of a global systemic crisis.

 

A global systemic crisis develops following a complex process where 4 phases can be distinguished, overlapping one another:

. in the first so-called “trigger” phase, a variety of until then un-related factors, start converging and interacting in a way that is perceptible mostly by careful observers and central players

. in the second “acceleration” phase, a large majority of players and observers suddenly become aware that a crisis is there and that it has already begun to affect a growing amount of the system's components

. in the third so-called “impact” phase, the system starts to transform radically (implosion and/or explosion) under the strain of cumulated factors, simultaneously affecting the whole system

. in the fourth and last “decanting” phase, the features of the new system born from the crisis begin to appear.

 

In the present situation, LEAP/E2020 estimates that the initial trigger-phase is about to finish and that, during June 2006, the world will enter a phase of acceleration of the crisis.

Indeed, in less than three months, many certainties as to the future were turned upside down (« inescapable » dollar-denomination, « return » to cheap oil, « peaceful » solution to the Iran/USA conflict, « sustainability » of the US real-estate bubble, US « domination » over two other key global players - China and Russia,…) and a great number of indicators now point at converging directions, all of them sources of unbalance for the current system (vertiginous rise in gold and precious metals prices, escalation of inflationary pressures, increase of the interest rates, EURUSD approaching 1.30, large amounts of central banks' reserves being switched to Euros, rise of Asian currencies, stock market and currency crises developing in various areas in the world, growing amounts of articles published in the international and national press using words such as « krach, crisis, collapse, risk, conflict, … » ).
 

Figure 1 - Evolution Dow Jones/M3 --- Dow Jones/Gold - source : www.sirchartsalot.com

According to LEAP/E2020, this « trigger-phase » can be seen as a « learning » phase for the system's players. Some of them properly anticipated the evolution and bet on a breakdown of dominant trends. While they still seemed marginal and irrational to the majority a few weeks ago, they now appear to have « won » when the majority has « lost » following the system's “normal” trends. This “lesson” conveys cumulative effects and soon considerably strengthens all breakdown tendencies, resulting in switching from trigger-phase to acceleration-phase. It also reinforces the conviction of the strategic players who got involved into breakdown policies (or who anticipated the breakdown), and weakens in a sustainable way all regulation capacities of the system now faced to a soon generalized crisis of confidence. Well, in the current system, one inherited from WWI and transformed by the fall of the Iron Curtain, whether it is in the financial, economic, monetary or strategic sector, everything relies on the trust granted by each of us to one central player (the US ) and to the different components of its might. The passage from phase 1 to phase 2 marks the collapse of this trust, sector by sector.
 

 
Figure 2- Saisies immobilières aux Etats-Unis

 
LEAP/E2020 therefore estimates that these sectoral losses of confidence will converge in the course of June 2006, and induce the acceleration of the crisis process. The acceleration should elapse over 3 to 6 months and convey seven concrete consequences:
  1. accelerated collapse of the Dollar
  2. internal social and political crisis in the US
  3. Iran/USA/Israel military conflict
  4. increased global inflation
  5. stop of the process of trade and economic globalisation
  6. accelerated emergence of new regional/continental « blocks »
  7. rebalancing of world assets' comparative value.


The passage to phase 3 (so-called « impact-phase ») of the global systemic crisis process will occur when at least four of the previously mentioned factors will have taken place. Simultaneously, it is possible, during the acceleration-phase already, to distinguish some of the tendencies that will shape up the future global system, and therefore to start initiating the decisions and policies likely to prepare a post-crisis future.


Mardi 3 Octobre 2006


GEAB N°39 - Contents

- Published on November 16, 2009 -

Global systemic crisis – States faced with three brutal options in 2010: inflation, high taxation or default
In the absence of major reappraisal of the international monetary order, the world is now entering the phase of geopolitical dislocation of the global systemic crisis. In 2010, as protectionism and the economic and social depression will gain momentum, a large number of States will be compelled to choose between three brutal options: inflation, high taxation or defaulting on their debt... (page 2)
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The end of the consumer-as-we-knew-him in the past thirty years
For sure the American consumer, incarnation of the American Dream since Henry Ford, has died. But the Western consumer (outside the US) as we knew him in the past thirty years is also wearing out. In addition to that, LEAP/E2020 believes that it is wrong to think that Asians and Latin-Americans will replace these « consuming machines » and enable « planet-profit » to go on as it used to do… (page 6)
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Crisis exit: In collision with reality – Real state of things at the end of 2009: USA, Euroland, China
The United States, United Kingdom, or even Japan, striving to escape from defaulting, or France and Germany left with no other choice than raise taxes by the end of 2010, in any event, in 2010, as inflation will affect necessity goods and speculative assets, anti-crisis policies and the reality of the global systemic crisis will collide… (page 11)
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Turkey’s awakening: Its gradual exit from the Western camp
Taking advantage of the ongoing systemic crisis, and of the weakening of the US and of the Western superstructure over which the latter’s might is based, Turkey has entered a process of fundamental redefinition of its key geopolitical interests. The new priorities ready to break out by 2012 will account for Ankara’s most profound reappraisal since the country joined NATO in 1952… (page 16)
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Strategic and operational recommendations
. Currencies/Gold: Trends are being confirmed
. Real estate: Renting or buying? A choice requiring careful consideration
. Shares/Bonds: The tipping point is approaching
. « Liquidity surplus »: An iconoclastic explanation (page 20)
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The GlobalEurometre - Results & Analyses
The unanimity of respondents (99 percent) sees no sign of economic improvement in their country… (page 22)
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