GEAB wrote it in June 2008: "Arab world: Pro-Western regimes go adrift / 60 percent risk of socio-political explosion on Egypt-Morocco axis"


- Excerpt GEAB N°26 (June 16, 2008) -



GEAB wrote it in June 2008: "Arab world: Pro-Western regimes go adrift / 60 percent risk of socio-political explosion on Egypt-Morocco axis"
According to LEAP/E2020, the global systemic crisis contributes to weaken Arab states’ pro-Western regimes confronted to hunger riots, religious fundamentalism fuelled by the growing influence of Iran, Syria, Hezbollah and Hamas, and the incapacity of Washington and its European allies to answer by anything else than securitarian stances (1). Day after day Egypt loses in stability because of the political deadlock created by the end of Moubarak’s reign combined with the regime’s incapacity to address the economic and social expectations of a growing part of the population (2). According to our analysts, Egypt will be politically hit by the outcome of the plunge into the heart of the global systemic crisis (3). Social instability will be stronger than the securitarian nature of the regime.

According to our team, this country is the last wall against an implosion of Maghreb under the strain of the anti-American forces now dominating the whole Middle-East. If, like we believe, Egypt becomes very unstable by the beginning of 2009, Tunisia, Algeria and Morocco will soon be swept away. In any event, they will have to cope with growing domestic unrest for socio-economic reasons, at the very moment when their great European partner sees its economy slow down.

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Notes:

(1) The French president’s unrealistic project of Union for the Mediterranean will not change anything to the situation.

(2) Hunger riots have not finished shaking up the region. Indeed, on the global food issue, the situation is worsening. For instance, the US department of Agriculture is expecting a 10% drop in US corn production this year. Source: Bloomberg, 06/10/2008

(3) Even American aid, largely granted to the region, as a result of the US currency slump.

Lundi 31 Janvier 2011
LEAP/E2020
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GEAB N°84 - Contents

- Published on April 17, 2014 -

Europe dragged into a division of the world between debtors and creditors: the United States' desperate solutions for not sinking alone
In the present confrontation between Russia and the West over the Ukrainian crisis, the image of the Cold War inevitably comes to mind and the media are obviously fond of it. However, contrary to what it gives us to understand, it’s not Russia that seeks the return of an iron curtain but really the US. An iron curtain separating the old powers and emerging nations; the world before and the world afterwards; debtors and creditors… (page 2)
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Crisis Alert for European governance – Risk of a Very Large Separation between EU leaders/European people
The Ukrainian crisis has triggered Europe’s derailment which henceforth explodes the risk of Europe’s drift outside the future tracks of peace, independence and democracy to a worrying probability which we estimate at 85%… (page 13)
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Investments, trends et recommendations
American stock exchange
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GlobalEurometre - Results and analyses
The results of these last three questionnaires are little changed, dating from the onset of the Euro-Russian crisis which has probably had the effect of diverting Europeans from the usual subjects of concern: the economy, finances and currencies…, in favour of the more geopolitical and military topics… (page 30)
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