GEAB wrote it in June 2008: "Arab world: Pro-Western regimes go adrift / 60 percent risk of socio-political explosion on Egypt-Morocco axis"


- Excerpt GEAB N°26 (June 16, 2008) -



GEAB wrote it in June 2008: "Arab world: Pro-Western regimes go adrift / 60 percent risk of socio-political explosion on Egypt-Morocco axis"
According to LEAP/E2020, the global systemic crisis contributes to weaken Arab states’ pro-Western regimes confronted to hunger riots, religious fundamentalism fuelled by the growing influence of Iran, Syria, Hezbollah and Hamas, and the incapacity of Washington and its European allies to answer by anything else than securitarian stances (1). Day after day Egypt loses in stability because of the political deadlock created by the end of Moubarak’s reign combined with the regime’s incapacity to address the economic and social expectations of a growing part of the population (2). According to our analysts, Egypt will be politically hit by the outcome of the plunge into the heart of the global systemic crisis (3). Social instability will be stronger than the securitarian nature of the regime.

According to our team, this country is the last wall against an implosion of Maghreb under the strain of the anti-American forces now dominating the whole Middle-East. If, like we believe, Egypt becomes very unstable by the beginning of 2009, Tunisia, Algeria and Morocco will soon be swept away. In any event, they will have to cope with growing domestic unrest for socio-economic reasons, at the very moment when their great European partner sees its economy slow down.

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Notes:

(1) The French president’s unrealistic project of Union for the Mediterranean will not change anything to the situation.

(2) Hunger riots have not finished shaking up the region. Indeed, on the global food issue, the situation is worsening. For instance, the US department of Agriculture is expecting a 10% drop in US corn production this year. Source: Bloomberg, 06/10/2008

(3) Even American aid, largely granted to the region, as a result of the US currency slump.

Lundi 31 Janvier 2011
LEAP/E2020
Lu 7168 fois


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