GEAB is at the origin of the concept of 'global systemic crisis'




GEAB is at the origin of the concept of 'global systemic crisis'
As early as February 15th, the second issue of the GlobalEurope Anticipation Bulletin (GEAB N°2 announced that an international political, economic and monetary crisis was to be triggered in the course of the last week of March 2006. The public announcement summing up this position toured the world, raising virulent criticisms of course, but above all warm thanks and vivid gratefulness for having opened a debate considered a healthy one.

GEAB 2 revealed in particular a major fact, unknown from big media and the majority of financial analysts: the US Fed’s decision to stop the publication of a macro-economic indicator, one essential to assess the dollar’s and global economy’s health, the M3 indicator. Leap/E2020 analysed this information as a decision to monetarize the US debt and to hide the triggering of a dollar-collapse process.

As predicted by Leap/E2020, and despite doubts expressed by many professionals and a resounding silence from the part of all big media, on March 23, 2006, the US Federal Reserve stopped M3 publication, the dollar started its descent and the crisis began to expand to various emerging monetary and financial markets (Arab Stock Exchange Markets, Iceland, New-Zealand, Hungary, Brazil…), bringing the dollar down by 4% in just a month, in a context of speculative currency attacks.

LEAP/E2020 took a great risk by making this prediction in February 2006, at a time when all public economic indicators were euphoric, and by making the choice to stick to its convictions against all mainstream opinions at that time. The now admitted correctness of the prediction acknowledges a unique capacity of global anticipation and trans-disciplinary analysis on the part of the team of Leap/E2020 researchers.

Each month, GEAB, in partnership with the Dutch foundation GEFIRA, provides you with Leap/E2020’s capacity of analysis and anticipation, with its European vision and unrivalled independence, in order to assist you in your dealing with a future becoming day after day more complex to predict.

To anticipate the crisis’ next steps in order to deal with the global systemic transition …

Since the beginning, GEAB has interpreted the current crisis as a global systemic crisis, i.e., one resulting from a change of system: the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989 resulted in the end of the USA-USSR bi-polar world system, and initiated a transitory system of supremacy of the USA-pole over the world; In 2006, the dollar collapse is a fall of the "Washington Wall" and both the indicator and the central factor of the global systemix crisis.

Economy, strategy, finance, politics, … all fields are affected by this major systemic transition. GEAB intends to be among the instruments enabling you to make the right decisions based on a clear understanding of the international context, on the precise identification of future-bearer tracks, and on a reliable analysis of the means to enter these tracks.

This founding-prediction gives the tone to all GEAB publications, which provide financial, political, academic and strategic decision-makers and advisers with monthly analyses of:

* implications of the crisis, field by field
* deciphering of ongoing trends
* identification of short- and medium-term future-bearer information
* anticipation of future stages of the transition
* decision-support strategic advice, field by field


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Samedi 15 Avril 2006

GEAB N°61 - Contents

- Published on January 16, 2012 -

Global systemic crisis - 2012: The year of the world’s great geopolitical swing
This GEAB issue makes it six years that the LEAP/ E2020 team have shared their anticipations with their subscribers and readers of their public briefing on the development of the global systemic crisis each month. And, for the first time, in the January issue which presents a summary of our anticipations for the year to come, our team anticipates a year which will not result solely in a worsening of the world crisis but which will also be characterized by the emergence of the first constructive elements of the “world after the crisis”… (page 2)
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USA 2012: on the way towards the tragedy of QE3
Today, US financial policy is confronted by the sovereign debt crisis of which it will be the ultimate victim in 2012. As LEAP/E2020 anticipated, the 2011 European debt detonator has truly ignited the 2012 American sovereign debt bomb, even if the media coverage desperately tries to make us believe the opposite. The massive sale of US Treasury Bills by the planet’s major central banks in the second half-year 2011 perfectly illustrates this situation incidentally… (page 7)
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ANTICIPATIONS 2012 - ‘20-UP AND 15-DOWN’, THIRTY FIVE KEY TRENDS FOR 2012
Up or Down? The United States' political paralysis; The City and Wall Street ; The rise in interest rates; The forfeiting of value to Wall Street and the City; The value of Chinese reserves; The Pound Sterling (and Gilts); Euroland as new European sovereign; The USA-China “little cold war”; Italy; The importance of the US Dollar in world trade transactions; Rating agencies; The “great European public borrowing” (GEPB); MerkHollMont; Ron Paul; The number, size and influence of Western banks; The continuation of gold’s return in the international monetary system; Recessflation; Sarkozy, Cameron, Netanyahu and Medvedev; The BRICS maturing as a pro-active world player; Turkey’s exit from the Western camp; The Tobin Eurotax; Secular and pro-Western forces in the Muslim world; Growth; The usefulness of the G20; Lawsuits against those managing banks and hedge funds; The splitting of the world monetary system into three zones: Dollar, Euro, Yuan; The widespread downgrade of Western public debt; Peoples' anger; The Euro crisis; The EU as the principal incarnation of Europe; QE3 as the ultimate weapon for saving the US economy; The US’ capacity for military intervention; The West as a community of relevance and values; Scottish independence; Le détroit d'Ormuz et un nouveau contexte de crise au Moyen-Orient ; L'indépendance de l'Ecosse; The Straits of Hormuz and a new context of the Middle East crisis (page 19) (page 19)
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The GlobalEurometre - Results & Analyses
We are seeing a strengthening in the majority considering that common European solutions to the crisis are more effective than national ones (80% in January versus 77% in December)… (page 33)
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