GEAB N°9 - Contents

- Published on November 16, 2006 -

December 2006 - Dollar-Real Estate-Stock Markets: US consumer's insolvency, a catalyst of the impact phase of the global systemic crisis

The US consumer, i.e. the US middle class, basically becomes insolvent, victim of overwhelming debt, a negative rate of saving, the bursting of the real estate bubble, the rise of interest rates and the collapse of US growth. All these elements are dependent, and mutually reinforcing, to plunge the United States, starting from the end 2006, into an economic, social and political crisis without precedent… Read public anouncement

Political consequences of the US mid-term election: Towards an aggravation of US leadership weaknesses (leaders facing a loss of legitimacy, economic context of recession, diplomatic deadlock in Iraq/Iran/North Korea…)

With only twenty-two months of effective capacity in the Congress (since the Democrats will take their functions with the Congress only in January 2007 and the next elections will take place in November 2008), the Democrats will have “to manage current issues” within a framework of a day to day “guerrilla” with the republican executive, with the presidential election of 2008 in their sights (thus making impossible any necessarily unpopular drastic measures), in a framework of economic recession, fall of the Dollar and diplomatic and military deadlocks in Iraq, Iran or with North Korea… Subscribe

Military consequences of the US mid-term election: Reinforcement of the autonomy of decision of the US military capacity, anticipation of an increase in military expenditure

The Generals are from now on the sole in command of Iraq and in fact of the whole of the defence policy of the United States. Because of the political division between the Congress and the presidential administration, they are able to neutralize any initiative which would displease them; and because they are “at the frontlines” of the war in Iraq, they are untouchable… Subscribe

Economic consequences of the US mid-term elections: Rebirth of US protectionism, end of globalisation process, increasing confrontation with China, sanctions on the dollar

The launching of various parliamentary inquiries into contracts granted within the framework of the rebuilding of Iraq or the benefits directed at the US army, like the wish to quantify more precisely the measurements of tax exemption voted by the republican Congress, or the questioning of the advantages granted to large pharmaceutical and insurance groups within the framework of the reform of the health system, will underline the state of virtual bankruptcy of the country… Subscribe

LEAP/E2020 Alert - Banking and financial sectors at the center of the impact phase of the global systemic crisis, via 'hedge funds' and 'bad quality credit'

The incestuous relationship between the banking structure and the real estate boom of these last years, as is also the case with the uncontrolled development of the hedge funds, constitutes a fatal mechanism for US economic growth and world financial circles as a whole... Subscribe

Real Estate in France and the UK: January 2007, the bubble explodes in Europe too

As LEAP/E2020 September’s GEAB N°7 indicated, confirming their February 2006 forecasts, the collapse of the American real estate bubble is directly affecting the “European real estate bubbles”, and in particular in the United Kingdom, Ireland and Spain as well as in the French capital cities such as Paris. The team of LEAP/E2020 chose in this issue of GEAB to examine particularly the cases of Paris and the United Kingdom... Subscribe

Investor’s counsel: Gold, commodities, energy, stocks, bonds,... which assets to choose while crossing the impact phase?

The November 2006 GlobalEurometre

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Jeudi 16 Novembre 2006
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GEAB N°90 - Contents

- Published on December 15, 2014 -

Global systemic crisis 2015 – Oil, currencies, finance, societies, the Middle East : Massive storm in the Western port!

. « Global systemic crisis: the end of the West we have known since 1945 »
. The oil crisis is systemic because it is linked to the end of the all-oil era
. The US in one hell of a state
. Europe post-Ukraine: lots of questions
. Three missions for the new Europe: resolve the Ukrainian crisis, put Euro-Russian relations back on the right path, avoid a European QE
. Middle East: traditional alliances’ big waltz
. Saudi Arabia, Iran: the allies change sides
. And Western « values » in all this
Read the public announcement

2015 – new phase of the crisis: the oil systemic crisis

. The impact of speculation
. Price War
. Systemic oil crisis and finance
. Systemic oil crisis and geopolitics

Investments, trends and recommendations

. Oil: beware!
. Energy intensive industries like airline companies
. Renewable energy: the good and the bad
. 2015: Euro & Yen rebound
. Gold: still safe

Evaluation of our anticipations for 2014
(from GEAB N° 81 in January 2014): a 69% success rate