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GLOBAL SYSTEMIC CRISIS Press clippings
December trade deficit at widest in six monthsMarket Watch
High-yield bond buyers skeptical of job gainsMarket Watch
Latin American leaders assail U.S. drug ‘market’Washington Post
China's export drops 0.5% y-o-y in JanShanghai Daily
A New Generation Aims to Revitalize RussiaDer Spiegel
Landmark settlement announced on foreclosure, mortgage fraudWashington Post
PASOK deputies seek deficit probeEkathimerini
Mean-Spirited, Bad EconomicsIn These New Times
China's CPI at three-month highChina Daily
Bank of England adds another dose of QEMarket Watch
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GEAB N°9 - Contents- Published on November 16, 2006 -December 2006 - Dollar-Real Estate-Stock Markets: US consumer's insolvency, a catalyst of the impact phase of the global systemic crisis
The US consumer, i.e. the US middle class, basically becomes insolvent, victim of overwhelming debt, a negative rate of saving, the bursting of the real estate bubble, the rise of interest rates and the collapse of US growth. All these elements are dependent, and mutually reinforcing, to plunge the United States, starting from the end 2006, into an economic, social and political crisis without precedent… Read public anouncement
Political consequences of the US mid-term election: Towards an aggravation of US leadership weaknesses (leaders facing a loss of legitimacy, economic context of recession, diplomatic deadlock in Iraq/Iran/North Korea…)
With only twenty-two months of effective capacity in the Congress (since the Democrats will take their functions with the Congress only in January 2007 and the next elections will take place in November 2008), the Democrats will have “to manage current issues” within a framework of a day to day “guerrilla” with the republican executive, with the presidential election of 2008 in their sights (thus making impossible any necessarily unpopular drastic measures), in a framework of economic recession, fall of the Dollar and diplomatic and military deadlocks in Iraq, Iran or with North Korea… Subscribe
Military consequences of the US mid-term election: Reinforcement of the autonomy of decision of the US military capacity, anticipation of an increase in military expenditure
The Generals are from now on the sole in command of Iraq and in fact of the whole of the defence policy of the United States. Because of the political division between the Congress and the presidential administration, they are able to neutralize any initiative which would displease them; and because they are “at the frontlines” of the war in Iraq, they are untouchable… Subscribe
Economic consequences of the US mid-term elections: Rebirth of US protectionism, end of globalisation process, increasing confrontation with China, sanctions on the dollar
The launching of various parliamentary inquiries into contracts granted within the framework of the rebuilding of Iraq or the benefits directed at the US army, like the wish to quantify more precisely the measurements of tax exemption voted by the republican Congress, or the questioning of the advantages granted to large pharmaceutical and insurance groups within the framework of the reform of the health system, will underline the state of virtual bankruptcy of the country… Subscribe
LEAP/E2020 Alert - Banking and financial sectors at the center of the impact phase of the global systemic crisis, via 'hedge funds' and 'bad quality credit'
The incestuous relationship between the banking structure and the real estate boom of these last years, as is also the case with the uncontrolled development of the hedge funds, constitutes a fatal mechanism for US economic growth and world financial circles as a whole... Subscribe
Real Estate in France and the UK: January 2007, the bubble explodes in Europe too
As LEAP/E2020 September’s GEAB N°7 indicated, confirming their February 2006 forecasts, the collapse of the American real estate bubble is directly affecting the “European real estate bubbles”, and in particular in the United Kingdom, Ireland and Spain as well as in the French capital cities such as Paris. The team of LEAP/E2020 chose in this issue of GEAB to examine particularly the cases of Paris and the United Kingdom... Subscribe
Investor’s counsel: Gold, commodities, energy, stocks, bonds,... which assets to choose while crossing the impact phase?The November 2006 GlobalEurometre
Results & Analyses Subscribe
Jeudi 16 Novembre 2006
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GEAB N°61 - Contents- Published on January 16, 2012 -
Global systemic crisis - 2012: The year of the world’s great geopolitical swing
This GEAB issue makes it six years that the LEAP/ E2020 team have shared their anticipations with their subscribers and readers of their public briefing on the development of the global systemic crisis each month. And, for the first time, in the January issue which presents a summary of our anticipations for the year to come, our team anticipates a year which will not result solely in a worsening of the world crisis but which will also be characterized by the emergence of the first constructive elements of the “world after the crisis”… (page 2) Read public announcement USA 2012: on the way towards the tragedy of QE3 Today, US financial policy is confronted by the sovereign debt crisis of which it will be the ultimate victim in 2012. As LEAP/E2020 anticipated, the 2011 European debt detonator has truly ignited the 2012 American sovereign debt bomb, even if the media coverage desperately tries to make us believe the opposite. The massive sale of US Treasury Bills by the planet’s major central banks in the second half-year 2011 perfectly illustrates this situation incidentally… (page 7) Subscribe ANTICIPATIONS 2012 - ‘20-UP AND 15-DOWN’, THIRTY FIVE KEY TRENDS FOR 2012 Up or Down? The United States' political paralysis; The City and Wall Street ; The rise in interest rates; The forfeiting of value to Wall Street and the City; The value of Chinese reserves; The Pound Sterling (and Gilts); Euroland as new European sovereign; The USA-China “little cold war”; Italy; The importance of the US Dollar in world trade transactions; Rating agencies; The “great European public borrowing” (GEPB); MerkHollMont; Ron Paul; The number, size and influence of Western banks; The continuation of gold’s return in the international monetary system; Recessflation; Sarkozy, Cameron, Netanyahu and Medvedev; The BRICS maturing as a pro-active world player; Turkey’s exit from the Western camp; The Tobin Eurotax; Secular and pro-Western forces in the Muslim world; Growth; The usefulness of the G20; Lawsuits against those managing banks and hedge funds; The splitting of the world monetary system into three zones: Dollar, Euro, Yuan; The widespread downgrade of Western public debt; Peoples' anger; The Euro crisis; The EU as the principal incarnation of Europe; QE3 as the ultimate weapon for saving the US economy; The US’ capacity for military intervention; The West as a community of relevance and values; Scottish independence; Le détroit d'Ormuz et un nouveau contexte de crise au Moyen-Orient ; L'indépendance de l'Ecosse; The Straits of Hormuz and a new context of the Middle East crisis (page 19) (page 19) Subscribe The GlobalEurometre - Results & Analyses We are seeing a strengthening in the majority considering that common European solutions to the crisis are more effective than national ones (80% in January versus 77% in December)… (page 33) Subscribe 
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GEAB N°61 - Contents