GEAB N°7 - Contents




1- September 2006: IMF confirms LEAP/E2020’s anticipations on Global Systemic Crisis

While LEAP/E2020 publishes GEAB’s present issue, continuing its work of anticipation of the global systemic crisis, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) publishes two reports which confirm the forecasts released by LEAP/E2020 throughout the year...

2- Trends – Continuing of the fall of the Dollar / A US economy entering stagflation

Firstly, LEAP/E2020 confirms the crisis is still accelerating and should last from June to November 2006, as we had already announced last May. In addition, our teams can now anticipate more precisely two essential developments: 1°/the continuing of the fall of the Dollar compared to the Euro, and 2°/ the stagnation of the American economy in a phase of stagflation and the rise of unemployment...

3- Strategic Advice - LEAP/E2020 launches a “Crisis Alert” on the real estate market in Europe

The American real estate bubble has exploded. Today the debate in the United States focuses on the extent of the impact this explosion will have on the remainder of the economy. Europeans should attentively follow this phenomenon which is already affecting the Old Continent...

4- Israel 2020- 2 scenarios for the future: Scenario 1: Towards the end of the State of Israel / Scenario 2: Towards a durable Israeli state

Continuing its in-depth analysis of the consequences of the end of the world order which had been the legacy of WWII, LEAP/E2020 started several months ago a strategic reflexion on the future of Israel. In this number 7 of the Global Europe Anticipation Bulletin, our teams present the two major options which, according to our work, are offered to the Israelis as the future of their country by the year 2020...

5- French presidential elections: Nicolas Sarkozy and Ségolène Royal, the increasingly virtual “favourites”

The LEAP/E2020 team, in the continuity of projections published on this subject in the GEAB N°5 (May 2006), believes that the end of 2006 will prove equally virtual the “favourites” chosen by the Parisian elite, namely Nicolas Sarkozy (right) and Ségolène Royal (left). Besides, each one of them faces identical problems...

6- American legislative elections - November 2006: Towards a politico-institutional blocking in Washington, with important political, economic and commercial consequences

The American constitutional context is founded on the separation of powers in a logic of “check and balances”: the President and the Congress have almost no direct power over each other and are thus condemned, when they belong to opposed majorities, either to constantly work out compromises, or to paralyse the apparatus of the American State...

7- GlobalEurometre

Your 4 monthly indicators: Tide-Action, Tide-Legitimacy and Tide-Governance & Tide External / Defence...

Vendredi 16 Juin 2006



In the same category:

GEAB N°39 - Contents - 16/11/2009

GEAB N°38 - Contents - 16/10/2009

GEAB N°37 - Contents - 16/09/2009

GEAB N°35 - Contents - 16/05/2009

GEAB N°34 - Contents - 17/04/2009

GEAB N°33 - Contents - 16/03/2009

GEAB N°32 - Contents - 17/02/2009

GEAB N°31 - Contents - 17/01/2009

GEAB N°30 - Contents - 16/12/2008

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GEAB N°39 - Contents

- Published on November 16, 2009 -

Global systemic crisis – States faced with three brutal options in 2010: inflation, high taxation or default
In the absence of major reappraisal of the international monetary order, the world is now entering the phase of geopolitical dislocation of the global systemic crisis. In 2010, as protectionism and the economic and social depression will gain momentum, a large number of States will be compelled to choose between three brutal options: inflation, high taxation or defaulting on their debt... (page 2)
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The end of the consumer-as-we-knew-him in the past thirty years
For sure the American consumer, incarnation of the American Dream since Henry Ford, has died. But the Western consumer (outside the US) as we knew him in the past thirty years is also wearing out. In addition to that, LEAP/E2020 believes that it is wrong to think that Asians and Latin-Americans will replace these « consuming machines » and enable « planet-profit » to go on as it used to do… (page 6)
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Crisis exit: In collision with reality – Real state of things at the end of 2009: USA, Euroland, China
The United States, United Kingdom, or even Japan, striving to escape from defaulting, or France and Germany left with no other choice than raise taxes by the end of 2010, in any event, in 2010, as inflation will affect necessity goods and speculative assets, anti-crisis policies and the reality of the global systemic crisis will collide… (page 11)
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Turkey’s awakening: Its gradual exit from the Western camp
Taking advantage of the ongoing systemic crisis, and of the weakening of the US and of the Western superstructure over which the latter’s might is based, Turkey has entered a process of fundamental redefinition of its key geopolitical interests. The new priorities ready to break out by 2012 will account for Ankara’s most profound reappraisal since the country joined NATO in 1952… (page 16)
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Strategic and operational recommendations
. Currencies/Gold: Trends are being confirmed
. Real estate: Renting or buying? A choice requiring careful consideration
. Shares/Bonds: The tipping point is approaching
. « Liquidity surplus »: An iconoclastic explanation (page 20)
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The GlobalEurometre - Results & Analyses
The unanimity of respondents (99 percent) sees no sign of economic improvement in their country… (page 22)
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