GEAB N°7 - Contents




1- September 2006: IMF confirms LEAP/E2020’s anticipations on Global Systemic Crisis

While LEAP/E2020 publishes GEAB’s present issue, continuing its work of anticipation of the global systemic crisis, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) publishes two reports which confirm the forecasts released by LEAP/E2020 throughout the year...

2- Trends – Continuing of the fall of the Dollar / A US economy entering stagflation

Firstly, LEAP/E2020 confirms the crisis is still accelerating and should last from June to November 2006, as we had already announced last May. In addition, our teams can now anticipate more precisely two essential developments: 1°/the continuing of the fall of the Dollar compared to the Euro, and 2°/ the stagnation of the American economy in a phase of stagflation and the rise of unemployment...

3- Strategic Advice - LEAP/E2020 launches a “Crisis Alert” on the real estate market in Europe

The American real estate bubble has exploded. Today the debate in the United States focuses on the extent of the impact this explosion will have on the remainder of the economy. Europeans should attentively follow this phenomenon which is already affecting the Old Continent...

4- Israel 2020- 2 scenarios for the future: Scenario 1: Towards the end of the State of Israel / Scenario 2: Towards a durable Israeli state

Continuing its in-depth analysis of the consequences of the end of the world order which had been the legacy of WWII, LEAP/E2020 started several months ago a strategic reflexion on the future of Israel. In this number 7 of the Global Europe Anticipation Bulletin, our teams present the two major options which, according to our work, are offered to the Israelis as the future of their country by the year 2020...

5- French presidential elections: Nicolas Sarkozy and Ségolène Royal, the increasingly virtual “favourites”

The LEAP/E2020 team, in the continuity of projections published on this subject in the GEAB N°5 (May 2006), believes that the end of 2006 will prove equally virtual the “favourites” chosen by the Parisian elite, namely Nicolas Sarkozy (right) and Ségolène Royal (left). Besides, each one of them faces identical problems...

6- American legislative elections - November 2006: Towards a politico-institutional blocking in Washington, with important political, economic and commercial consequences

The American constitutional context is founded on the separation of powers in a logic of “check and balances”: the President and the Congress have almost no direct power over each other and are thus condemned, when they belong to opposed majorities, either to constantly work out compromises, or to paralyse the apparatus of the American State...

7- GlobalEurometre

Your 4 monthly indicators: Tide-Action, Tide-Legitimacy and Tide-Governance & Tide External / Defence...

Vendredi 16 Juin 2006



In the same category:

GEAB N°41 - Contents - 16/01/2010

GEAB N°40 - Contents - 16/12/2009

GEAB N°39 - Contents - 16/11/2009

GEAB N°38 - Contents - 16/10/2009

GEAB N°37 - Contents - 16/09/2009

GEAB N°36 (Summer 2009 special edition) - Contents - 17/06/2009

GEAB N°35 - Contents - 16/05/2009

GEAB N°34 - Contents - 17/04/2009

GEAB N°33 - Contents - 16/03/2009

GEAB N°32 - Contents - 17/02/2009

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GEAB N°41 - Contents

- Published on January 16, 2010 -

Calendar 2010 – 2020 / The « tragic twilight » of the world-before-the-crisis
The publication of this first GEAB of the year, where we usually publish our anticipations for the next twelve months, exceptionally coincides with the beginning of a new decade and, what is more, a decade which all careful observers feel will mark an upheaval in the world order. Our team has seized this occasion to give our subscribers the benefit of a rational geopolitical « dive » into what the coming decade holds for us… (page 2)
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To prepare 2010 - ’15 UP AND 15 DOWN’, 30 KEY TRENDS FOR 2010 – Fifteen topics which are going to increase in importance during 2010 / Fifteen key subjects which are going to fade away between now and the end of 2010
The US Federal reserve; The Very Great US Depression; The future of the United Kingdom; Global warming; Gold; Yuan; Unemployment and social dislocation; Global geopolitical dislocation; Eurozone; Speculative bubbles; Dollar, Pound Sterling and Yen; Greece as a Eurozone menace; Latin America; BRIC summits; Global recovery; Globalisation; EU governance; China’s economic miracle; The likelihood of a NATO victory in Afghanistan; G20; The middle-East “Peace Process”; State bankruptcies; Israel-USA/Iran conflict; Social safety net systems; Trade blocs; US T-bonds; Tax reductions; Nicolas Sarkozy… (page 8)
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The Decade 2010 – 2020: Towards a knockout victory by gold over the Dollar
We have often reminded readers in different GEAB issues that gold constitutes both a medium/long term investment intended to protect one’s capital against the risk of a loss in value of paper currencies and financial assets, and an eventual means of payment in the event of a very serious monetary crisis. In these two cases the choice of placing a portion of one’s assets in gold is a response to anticipating events and risks in the coming years (and not the coming weeks or months). For this GEAB N°41, a special edition at the beginning of a new decade, it seems opportune to LEAP/E2020 to put forward its anticipations on gold’s progress for 2010 – 2020, completing what the team wrote in issue N°34 of the GEAB in April 2009… (page 19)
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The GlobalEurometre - Results & Analyses
Citizens’ discontent with European government action compared to the expectations of their people climbs slightly, though remaining at very high levels (96%). The « Lisbon Treaty » effect clearly hasn’t happened.… (page 24)
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