GEAB N°7 - Contents




1- September 2006: IMF confirms LEAP/E2020’s anticipations on Global Systemic Crisis

While LEAP/E2020 publishes GEAB’s present issue, continuing its work of anticipation of the global systemic crisis, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) publishes two reports which confirm the forecasts released by LEAP/E2020 throughout the year...

2- Trends – Continuing of the fall of the Dollar / A US economy entering stagflation

Firstly, LEAP/E2020 confirms the crisis is still accelerating and should last from June to November 2006, as we had already announced last May. In addition, our teams can now anticipate more precisely two essential developments: 1°/the continuing of the fall of the Dollar compared to the Euro, and 2°/ the stagnation of the American economy in a phase of stagflation and the rise of unemployment...

3- Strategic Advice - LEAP/E2020 launches a “Crisis Alert” on the real estate market in Europe

The American real estate bubble has exploded. Today the debate in the United States focuses on the extent of the impact this explosion will have on the remainder of the economy. Europeans should attentively follow this phenomenon which is already affecting the Old Continent...

4- Israel 2020- 2 scenarios for the future: Scenario 1: Towards the end of the State of Israel / Scenario 2: Towards a durable Israeli state

Continuing its in-depth analysis of the consequences of the end of the world order which had been the legacy of WWII, LEAP/E2020 started several months ago a strategic reflexion on the future of Israel. In this number 7 of the Global Europe Anticipation Bulletin, our teams present the two major options which, according to our work, are offered to the Israelis as the future of their country by the year 2020...

5- French presidential elections: Nicolas Sarkozy and Ségolène Royal, the increasingly virtual “favourites”

The LEAP/E2020 team, in the continuity of projections published on this subject in the GEAB N°5 (May 2006), believes that the end of 2006 will prove equally virtual the “favourites” chosen by the Parisian elite, namely Nicolas Sarkozy (right) and Ségolène Royal (left). Besides, each one of them faces identical problems...

6- American legislative elections - November 2006: Towards a politico-institutional blocking in Washington, with important political, economic and commercial consequences

The American constitutional context is founded on the separation of powers in a logic of “check and balances”: the President and the Congress have almost no direct power over each other and are thus condemned, when they belong to opposed majorities, either to constantly work out compromises, or to paralyse the apparatus of the American State...

7- GlobalEurometre

Your 4 monthly indicators: Tide-Action, Tide-Legitimacy and Tide-Governance & Tide External / Defence...

Vendredi 16 Juin 2006



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GEAB N°46 - Contents

- Published on June 16, 2010 -

Global systemic crisis / Second half of 2010: The global system’s four single points of failure
The second half of 2010 will thus correspond to a new step in the global geopolitical dislocation, characterized by an acceleration in the process of strategic, financial, economic and social convulsions centered on four single points of failure of the international system... (page 2)
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Western public debt: When insolvency becomes intolerable
Between now and the end of 2010 the whole world will have learned all the lessons from the « Greek crisis ». In fact, there are only two lessons to learn from… (page 5)
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European austerity: When contextual growth is abandoned in favour of structural stability
In speaking of the Eurozone we have written about « a policy » of austerity and not « policies of austerity » as indeed Germany now sets the standards on the subject... (page 8)
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Chinese inflation: When China is going to begin exporting its inflation
As anticipated by LEAP/E2020, the Chinese new impetus plan is coming to an end and opens up two connected problems... (page 12)
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US contraction: From « hidden mass austerity » to « imposed Federal austerity »
The November 2010 mid-term elections will be the first electoral test of a United States in crisis... (page 14)
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Second series of elements for a methodology of political anticipation: Questions about source material and team management
Second series of excerpts from the Manual of Political Anticipation which LEAP will publish in October 2010. (page 19)
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Strategic and operational recommendations for the second half of 2010
US municipal bond market (« munis »): The major shock
Currencies: The hurricane will strengthen with even higher waves!
World stock markets face the unthinkable
Gold, cash, precious metals, real estate… (page 23)
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The GlobalEurometre - Results & Analyses
Those polled are now unanimously agreed (a rare case for the GlobalEurometre) calling for the establishment of European and Asiatic rating agencies so as to no longer depend on the goodwill of Moody’s, Fitch and Standard & Poor’s.… (page 26)
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Special subscribers’ announcements
EU-Russia seminar, Nice, September 23/24 septembre, 2010
Political Anticipation Academy, cycle 2010-2011 (page 30)
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