GEAB N°63 - Contents


- Published on March 17, 2012 -



Global systemic crisis – The five devastating storms in summer 2012 at the heart of the world geopolitical swing
In its January 2012 issue, LEAP/E2020 signalled the current year as that of the world geopolitical swing. The first quarter 2012 has, to a large extent, started to establish that an era was in fact coming to an end with, in particular… (page 2)
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Summer 2012 – US relapse into recession against a background of European stagnation and BRICS slowdown
The signs coming from the BRICS countries and Europe continue to point in the same direction: the worldwide economy is heading straight towards recession in 2012… (page 6)
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Summer 2012 – Dead end for the central banks and interest rate increases
The Fed must take two new difficulties into account: the fast and significant reduction of the demand for US securities (Dollars, Treasuries…) due to the world economy’s slowdown and the emergence this year of two monetary zones disconnected from the Dollar, those of the Euro and Yuan… (page 9)
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Summer 2012 – Storm on the foreign exchange and Western sovereign debt markets
Thus, for several quarters, we have noted the increase in attempts at exchange rate “stabilization” of their respective currencies by a growing number of States. According to LEAP/E2020, absent a G20 agreement on a new currency to found the future world monetary system, this trend is not an indicator of increased stability but, on the contrary, the indication of an increasing concern in front of the shuddering of a dying system… (page 12)
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Summer 2012 – Iran, the war « too far »
Because in all cases, whether it takes place or not, to paraphrase Jean Giraudoux the war with Iran will be “one war too many” for the West. It’s a certainty for LEAP/E2020… (page 14)
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Summer 2012 – New crash in the markets and financial institutions
One of the probable reactions of Iran’s supporters, one of which is China, will be to hit Washington in the pocket, by massively diversifying their Dollars assets into other currencies and announcing with Moscow and others that they are stopping buying US securities to stop financing the American war machine… (page 17)
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2015: « The big fall of Western real estate » - Extract from the chapter on the development of the American real estate market
The United States produces less and less. Inevitably, its wealth will have to harmonize with its true production. It’s this adjustment which will impoverish the US and precipitate real estate’s fall … (page 19)
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Strategic and operational recommendations
Currencies: watch out for the consequences of the emergence of three major monetary zones / Gold: inflection point in sight / Commodities: Conflict versus recession / Stock Exchanges/US Economy: end of the illusion / US residential real estate: how can I fall so low? / Financial products: Red Alert! (page 21)
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The GlobalEurometre - Results & Analyses
We note the continuation of the trend which has been apparent since October 2011, that’s to say the growing belief that we really are witnessing a Euroland governance being put in place (85% this month versus 82% in February 2012, 73% in January, 71% in December 2011 and 48% in October)… (page 22)
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Vendredi 16 Mars 2012
LEAP/E2020
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GEAB N°86 - Contents

- Published on June 17, 2014 -

Global systemic crisis – The Major Global Geopolitical Reconfiguration
After nearly 6 years of blocking the normal development of systemic transition, a blocking caused by a flood of dollars leading to a renewed artificial global addiction to the US dollar, history is now taking its course… (page 2)
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The US 2014-2015: the dominoes of pensions, Munis and the Dollar
Numerous cracks come from the outside: for example the challenge to US dominance by China and Russia. But, amongst the most serious cracks in the Dollar wall, is the market for US municipal bonds and the US pension system… (page 19)
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Central Banks – What the coexistence of QE and deflation reveals about the Western financial system
Common sense (or rather economic sense) would expect that excessive use of the printing press, especially in the US and Japan, causes inflation – if not hyperinflation given the amount of money injected into the system. And yet, it’s nothing of the kind. Are deflation and the printing press conniving in the US? Or in Europe? How can that be possible? (page 25)
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Investments, trends and recommendations
Blackmail in the BNP affair
« Sufficiently big to fine »
Alternative financial investments… (page 30)
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GlobalEurometre - Results and analyses
Even if some financial issues, such as the risk of bank failures or the fear of losing one’s money, seem to be less worrying, for the first time in several months we are seeing signs of a weakening in confidence in the European currency… (page 35)
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