GEAB N°63 - Contents


- Published on March 17, 2012 -



Global systemic crisis – The five devastating storms in summer 2012 at the heart of the world geopolitical swing
In its January 2012 issue, LEAP/E2020 signalled the current year as that of the world geopolitical swing. The first quarter 2012 has, to a large extent, started to establish that an era was in fact coming to an end with, in particular… (page 2)
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Summer 2012 – US relapse into recession against a background of European stagnation and BRICS slowdown
The signs coming from the BRICS countries and Europe continue to point in the same direction: the worldwide economy is heading straight towards recession in 2012… (page 6)
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Summer 2012 – Dead end for the central banks and interest rate increases
The Fed must take two new difficulties into account: the fast and significant reduction of the demand for US securities (Dollars, Treasuries…) due to the world economy’s slowdown and the emergence this year of two monetary zones disconnected from the Dollar, those of the Euro and Yuan… (page 9)
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Summer 2012 – Storm on the foreign exchange and Western sovereign debt markets
Thus, for several quarters, we have noted the increase in attempts at exchange rate “stabilization” of their respective currencies by a growing number of States. According to LEAP/E2020, absent a G20 agreement on a new currency to found the future world monetary system, this trend is not an indicator of increased stability but, on the contrary, the indication of an increasing concern in front of the shuddering of a dying system… (page 12)
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Summer 2012 – Iran, the war « too far »
Because in all cases, whether it takes place or not, to paraphrase Jean Giraudoux the war with Iran will be “one war too many” for the West. It’s a certainty for LEAP/E2020… (page 14)
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Summer 2012 – New crash in the markets and financial institutions
One of the probable reactions of Iran’s supporters, one of which is China, will be to hit Washington in the pocket, by massively diversifying their Dollars assets into other currencies and announcing with Moscow and others that they are stopping buying US securities to stop financing the American war machine… (page 17)
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2015: « The big fall of Western real estate » - Extract from the chapter on the development of the American real estate market
The United States produces less and less. Inevitably, its wealth will have to harmonize with its true production. It’s this adjustment which will impoverish the US and precipitate real estate’s fall … (page 19)
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Strategic and operational recommendations
Currencies: watch out for the consequences of the emergence of three major monetary zones / Gold: inflection point in sight / Commodities: Conflict versus recession / Stock Exchanges/US Economy: end of the illusion / US residential real estate: how can I fall so low? / Financial products: Red Alert! (page 21)
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The GlobalEurometre - Results & Analyses
We note the continuation of the trend which has been apparent since October 2011, that’s to say the growing belief that we really are witnessing a Euroland governance being put in place (85% this month versus 82% in February 2012, 73% in January, 71% in December 2011 and 48% in October)… (page 22)
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Vendredi 16 Mars 2012
LEAP/E2020
Lu 4577 fois


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GEAB N°90 - Contents

- Published on December 15, 2014 -

Global systemic crisis 2015 – Oil, currencies, finance, societies, the Middle East : Massive storm in the Western port!

. « Global systemic crisis: the end of the West we have known since 1945 »
. The oil crisis is systemic because it is linked to the end of the all-oil era
. The US in one hell of a state
. Europe post-Ukraine: lots of questions
. Three missions for the new Europe: resolve the Ukrainian crisis, put Euro-Russian relations back on the right path, avoid a European QE
. Middle East: traditional alliances’ big waltz
. Saudi Arabia, Iran: the allies change sides
. And Western « values » in all this
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2015 – new phase of the crisis: the oil systemic crisis

. The impact of speculation
. Price War
. Systemic oil crisis and finance
. Systemic oil crisis and geopolitics
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Investments, trends and recommendations

. Oil: beware!
. Energy intensive industries like airline companies
. Renewable energy: the good and the bad
. 2015: Euro & Yen rebound
. Gold: still safe
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Evaluation of our anticipations for 2014
(from GEAB N° 81 in January 2014): a 69% success rate
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