GEAB N°63 - Contents


- Published on March 17, 2012 -



Global systemic crisis – The five devastating storms in summer 2012 at the heart of the world geopolitical swing
In its January 2012 issue, LEAP/E2020 signalled the current year as that of the world geopolitical swing. The first quarter 2012 has, to a large extent, started to establish that an era was in fact coming to an end with, in particular… (page 2)
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Summer 2012 – US relapse into recession against a background of European stagnation and BRICS slowdown
The signs coming from the BRICS countries and Europe continue to point in the same direction: the worldwide economy is heading straight towards recession in 2012… (page 6)
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Summer 2012 – Dead end for the central banks and interest rate increases
The Fed must take two new difficulties into account: the fast and significant reduction of the demand for US securities (Dollars, Treasuries…) due to the world economy’s slowdown and the emergence this year of two monetary zones disconnected from the Dollar, those of the Euro and Yuan… (page 9)
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Summer 2012 – Storm on the foreign exchange and Western sovereign debt markets
Thus, for several quarters, we have noted the increase in attempts at exchange rate “stabilization” of their respective currencies by a growing number of States. According to LEAP/E2020, absent a G20 agreement on a new currency to found the future world monetary system, this trend is not an indicator of increased stability but, on the contrary, the indication of an increasing concern in front of the shuddering of a dying system… (page 12)
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Summer 2012 – Iran, the war « too far »
Because in all cases, whether it takes place or not, to paraphrase Jean Giraudoux the war with Iran will be “one war too many” for the West. It’s a certainty for LEAP/E2020… (page 14)
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Summer 2012 – New crash in the markets and financial institutions
One of the probable reactions of Iran’s supporters, one of which is China, will be to hit Washington in the pocket, by massively diversifying their Dollars assets into other currencies and announcing with Moscow and others that they are stopping buying US securities to stop financing the American war machine… (page 17)
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2015: « The big fall of Western real estate » - Extract from the chapter on the development of the American real estate market
The United States produces less and less. Inevitably, its wealth will have to harmonize with its true production. It’s this adjustment which will impoverish the US and precipitate real estate’s fall … (page 19)
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Strategic and operational recommendations
Currencies: watch out for the consequences of the emergence of three major monetary zones / Gold: inflection point in sight / Commodities: Conflict versus recession / Stock Exchanges/US Economy: end of the illusion / US residential real estate: how can I fall so low? / Financial products: Red Alert! (page 21)
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The GlobalEurometre - Results & Analyses
We note the continuation of the trend which has been apparent since October 2011, that’s to say the growing belief that we really are witnessing a Euroland governance being put in place (85% this month versus 82% in February 2012, 73% in January, 71% in December 2011 and 48% in October)… (page 22)
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Vendredi 16 Mars 2012
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GEAB N°83 - Contents

- Published on March 16, 2014 -

Global systemic crisis-escalation in the US reaction for survival: trigger a cold war to make it easier to annex Europe
The EU has forced the Ukraine to “choose sides”, thus creating the conditions subsequent to the inevitable events which we know: the Ukraine has in fact chosen… and the country, logically, has entered a dramatic and bloody process of decision which is only just begun. Baroness Ashton and Mr. O’Sullivan have literally set a trap for the Ukraine… and Europe (page 2)
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Eight strategic recommendations-the Ukrainian crisis, the ultimate test of Europeans' ability to build their political union to take control of their common destiny
This crisis is well and truly a test of national leaders’ ability to grasp the tools of independence, power and peace that their fathers (the generations of politicians which ruled right until the end of the 80s basically) have put at their disposal, this united and institutionalized Europe which only remains to be put under political control.… (page 6)
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Financial and economic aspects of the Ukrainian crisis: a helpless West facing a serious risk of a Ukrainian default
As tensions mount between the “West” and Russia about Russia’s “annexation” of the Crimea, the Western powers are considering the option of isolating Russia financially, by freezing assets and applying economic sanctions… (page 12)
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The United States: the strategy of chaos as the policy of last resort
As Henry Kissinger wrote (03/2014) : “For the West, the demonization of Vladimir Putin is not a policy; it is an alibi for the absence of one.”… (page 20)
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Investments, trends and recommendations
The Ukrainian crisis – Energy – Gold – Treasury bonds – Russian stock exchange… (page 25)
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GlobalEurometre - Results and analyses
Through this survey we feel that the causes of real concern are no longer economic or financial but really political and geopolitical… (page 27)
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