GEAB N°5 - Contents

1- June 2006 - Beginning of phase 2 of the global systemic crisis: the phase of acceleration

Last February, LEAP/E2020 anticipated that a global systemic crisis was to be triggered at the end of March. Today, three months later, LEAP/E2020 can anticipate that the initial phase of this crisis is about to be finished and that, as soon as the beginning of June 2006, the crisis will enter a phase of acceleration. Before detailing the main features of this new phase, LEAP/E2020 would like to clarify the 4 different phases of a global systemic crisis… (p. 2)

2- Phase of acceleration of the crisis: Seven concrete consequences for economic and political players and decision-makers

LEAP/E2020 anticipates that the sectoral losses of confidence will converge in June 2006, and tend to generalise in each sector, resulting in an acceleration of the crisis unfolding process. The acceleration, should elapse over 3 to 6 months, and will convey seven concrete consequences. … (p. 5)

3- EU 2007 - French presidential elections: towards an election full of surprises / Upcoming German EU presidency: the reasons why it is doomed to impotence

During the first semester of 2007, two major events for the EU will combine. In fact, European authorities believe that that semester will be key in re-launching the broken down EU: on the one hand, the French presidential election, and on the other hand, the German presidency of the EU. However LEAP/E2020 anticipates that the French election is most likely to provoke some surprises and to disappoint the European expectations placed in it. While the German EU presidency has already set for itself unreachable goals… (p. 11)

4- Investors’ corner – Global systemic crisis: How to survive with a euro worth 1,50 USD and an oil-barrel worth 150 USD?

When the two pillars of the global economic system that prevailed in the last 60 years collapse, i.e., the Dollar as reference-currency and oil as cheap energy, it is high time for investors, and private and collective strategy makers to reconsider many things. What impact will have a Euro worth 1.50 USD and an oil-barrel worth 150 USD? These levels have not yet been reached, but LEAP/E2020 anticipates that they should become a reality by the end of the acceleration-phase of the crisis, at the beginning of its impact-phase, and that is no later than November 2006… (p. 15)

5- GlobalEurometre

This month’s four indicators of the GlobalEurometre: Tide-Action, Tide-Legitimacy, Tide-Governance and Tide External/Defence. (p. 17)

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GEAB N°90 - Contents

- Published on December 15, 2014 -

Global systemic crisis 2015 – Oil, currencies, finance, societies, the Middle East : Massive storm in the Western port!

. « Global systemic crisis: the end of the West we have known since 1945 »
. The oil crisis is systemic because it is linked to the end of the all-oil era
. The US in one hell of a state
. Europe post-Ukraine: lots of questions
. Three missions for the new Europe: resolve the Ukrainian crisis, put Euro-Russian relations back on the right path, avoid a European QE
. Middle East: traditional alliances’ big waltz
. Saudi Arabia, Iran: the allies change sides
. And Western « values » in all this
Read the public announcement

2015 – new phase of the crisis: the oil systemic crisis

. The impact of speculation
. Price War
. Systemic oil crisis and finance
. Systemic oil crisis and geopolitics

Investments, trends and recommendations

. Oil: beware!
. Energy intensive industries like airline companies
. Renewable energy: the good and the bad
. 2015: Euro & Yen rebound
. Gold: still safe

Evaluation of our anticipations for 2014
(from GEAB N° 81 in January 2014): a 69% success rate