GEAB N°49 - Contents

- Published on November 16, 2010 -

2012-2013: The double electoral shock of French and German elections
According to LEAP/E2020, the French elections in 2012 (presidential election followed by the legislative elections) and the German federal elections planned for 2013 will set the scene for two major shocks destined to disrupt the balances of political power in these two pillars of Euroland and the European Union… (page 2)

Warning Global systemic crisis – First quarter 2011: Breach of the critical threshold of global geopolitical dislocation
With the G20 summit in Seoul, which signalled to the planet in its entirety the end of US domination of the international agenda and its replacement by a generalised mood of “every man for himself”, a new phase of the crisis has begun, prompting the LEAP/E2020 team to issue a new warning. The world is about to breach a critical threshold in this phase of global geopolitical dislocation... (page 9)

. Concluding the quantitative easing: the Fed placed under “house arrest” (page 11)

. Political paralysis in Washington: the US adrift, the dollar in freefall, and austerity looming in 2011 (page 12)

. European austerity: spread of social resistance movements; mounting populism; risk of fostering radicalism in rising generations; higher taxes (page 14)

. Strengthening of Euroland and beginning of euro manipulation in Europe (page 15)

. United Kingdom: a former power falters (page 16)

. Japan: the latest efforts to resist China’s power (page 17)
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Strategic and operational recommendations
Three simple but indispensable reflexes for a better understanding of the new world taking shape / Currency/interest rates/gold & precious metals / The Wealth Preservation Index / Asset classes dominated in US Dollars (page 19)

The GlobalEurometre - Results & Analyses
The very large majority traditionally unsatisfied with European governments’ actions in relation to their people’s expectations remains at peak levels, with 95% unsatisfied (against 97% in October)… (page 24)

Special subscribers’ announcements
. LEAP launches MAP "to renew our stock of potential futures"
. ‘Do GEAB yourself’ with the Manual of political anticipation

Mercredi 17 Novembre 2010
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GEAB N°90 - Contents

- Published on December 15, 2014 -

Global systemic crisis 2015 – Oil, currencies, finance, societies, the Middle East : Massive storm in the Western port!

. « Global systemic crisis: the end of the West we have known since 1945 »
. The oil crisis is systemic because it is linked to the end of the all-oil era
. The US in one hell of a state
. Europe post-Ukraine: lots of questions
. Three missions for the new Europe: resolve the Ukrainian crisis, put Euro-Russian relations back on the right path, avoid a European QE
. Middle East: traditional alliances’ big waltz
. Saudi Arabia, Iran: the allies change sides
. And Western « values » in all this
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2015 – new phase of the crisis: the oil systemic crisis

. The impact of speculation
. Price War
. Systemic oil crisis and finance
. Systemic oil crisis and geopolitics

Investments, trends and recommendations

. Oil: beware!
. Energy intensive industries like airline companies
. Renewable energy: the good and the bad
. 2015: Euro & Yen rebound
. Gold: still safe

Evaluation of our anticipations for 2014
(from GEAB N° 81 in January 2014): a 69% success rate