GEAB N°40 - Contents


- Published on December 16, 2009 -



Spring 2010 – A new tipping point of the global systemic crisis: When the slip knot around public deficits is going to strangle Western states and their social security systems
LEAP/E2020 believes that the global systemic crisis will experience a new tipping point from Spring 2010. Indeed, at that time, the public finances of the major Western countries are going to become unmanageable, as it will simultaneously become clear that new support measures for the economy are needed because of the failure of the various stimuli in 2009, and that the size of budget deficits preclude any significant new expenditures... (page 2)
Read public announcement

. Dubai: a clear example of what banks qualify as a « riskless asset » (page 4)
Subscribe

. Greek debt crisis: A small problem for Frankfurt and a strong warning for Washington and London (page 5)
Read public announcement

The big Western dilemma in Spring 2010: Managing budget deficits versus new plans to boost the economy – Japan / Germany / France / United Kingdom / United States
Next Spring will be the defining moment on this issue for each country and, especially, the time when the first results will be available concerning either the success of these stimulus plans, or the relevance of deficit control policies: sovereign debt and currencies will suffer direct and brutal consequences… (page 8)
Subscribe

Evaluation of GEAB’s 2009 anticipations: A 72% success rate
Before presenting its 2010 anticipations (which will appear in the GEAB January 2010 issue (N°41)) and within the framework of an ongoing evaluation of its analyses, LEAP/E2020 has prepared a balance sheet of its 2009 anticipations to establish their reliability… (page 14)
Subscribe

Strategic and operational recommendations
. Expatriates: Taxes and currencies-facing up to the two big uncertainties of 2010
. Commercial real estate (page 22)
Subscribe

The GlobalEurometre - Results & Analyses
Europeans continue to be almost completely unanimous (95%) in thinking that the EU must start negotiations with China, Russia, Brazil, India and Japan in 2010 on the subject of a new international reference currency… (page 23)
Subscribe

Mercredi 16 Décembre 2009


In the same category:

GEAB N°43 - Contents - 16/03/2010

GEAB N°42 - Contents - 16/02/2010

GEAB N°41 - Contents - 16/01/2010

GEAB N°39 - Contents - 16/11/2009

GEAB N°38 - Contents - 16/10/2009

GEAB N°37 - Contents - 16/09/2009

GEAB N°36 (Summer 2009 special edition) - Contents - 17/06/2009

GEAB N°35 - Contents - 16/05/2009

GEAB N°34 - Contents - 17/04/2009

GEAB N°33 - Contents - 16/03/2009

1 2 3 4 5

GEAB N°43 - Contents

- Published on March 16, 2010 -

The crisis marks the end of pre-eminence in the financial sphere and the lasting decline of the City and Wall Street
It is a geopolitical, as much as an economic, financial and monetary approach which led LEAP, in February 2006, to announce the imminent arrival of what we have called « the global systemic crisis ». This same approach now tends to confirm that, in the « world after the crisis », the real economy will, once again, take on a central role, whilst these last few decades have been marked by a virtual economy in the financial sector being at the centre of affairs… (page 2)
Subscribe

The five steps of the global geopolitical dislocation phase (page 7)
Beginning of the phase of global geopolitical dislocation (page 12)
Step 1: Monetary disputes and financial shocks (page 12)
Step 2: Trade disputes (page 14)
Step 3: State crises (page 14)
Step 4: Socio-political crises (page 16)
Step 5: Strategic crises (page 17)
Read public announcement

« Danger warning »: A list of eight sovereign risks more dangerous than Greece
Based on the most recent information available, the LEAP/E2020 team has refined its country risk classification published last autumn. From that it is clearly apparent that eight large countries are in a worse position than Greece, exactly confirming our anticipation that the Greek problem is only a tree hiding the forest… (page 18)
Subscribe

Strategic and operational recommendations
Currencies, Stocks and Bonds, Country’s degree of socio-political risk… (page 20)
Subscribe

The GlobalEurometre - Results & Analyses
A further change in the majority worried about the possibility of political and social upheaval in their country: those believing in such a development constitute, once again, a substantial majority this month (76% versus 57% who thought the opposite in February)… (page 22)
Subscribe
Full page