GEAB N°40 - Contents


- Published on December 16, 2009 -



Spring 2010 – A new tipping point of the global systemic crisis: When the slip knot around public deficits is going to strangle Western states and their social security systems
LEAP/E2020 believes that the global systemic crisis will experience a new tipping point from Spring 2010. Indeed, at that time, the public finances of the major Western countries are going to become unmanageable, as it will simultaneously become clear that new support measures for the economy are needed because of the failure of the various stimuli in 2009, and that the size of budget deficits preclude any significant new expenditures... (page 2)
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. Dubai: a clear example of what banks qualify as a « riskless asset » (page 4)
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. Greek debt crisis: A small problem for Frankfurt and a strong warning for Washington and London (page 5)
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The big Western dilemma in Spring 2010: Managing budget deficits versus new plans to boost the economy – Japan / Germany / France / United Kingdom / United States
Next Spring will be the defining moment on this issue for each country and, especially, the time when the first results will be available concerning either the success of these stimulus plans, or the relevance of deficit control policies: sovereign debt and currencies will suffer direct and brutal consequences… (page 8)
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Evaluation of GEAB’s 2009 anticipations: A 72% success rate
Before presenting its 2010 anticipations (which will appear in the GEAB January 2010 issue (N°41)) and within the framework of an ongoing evaluation of its analyses, LEAP/E2020 has prepared a balance sheet of its 2009 anticipations to establish their reliability… (page 14)
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Strategic and operational recommendations
. Expatriates: Taxes and currencies-facing up to the two big uncertainties of 2010
. Commercial real estate (page 22)
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The GlobalEurometre - Results & Analyses
Europeans continue to be almost completely unanimous (95%) in thinking that the EU must start negotiations with China, Russia, Brazil, India and Japan in 2010 on the subject of a new international reference currency… (page 23)
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Mercredi 16 Décembre 2009


In the same category:

GEAB N°42 - Contents - 16/02/2010

GEAB N°41 - Contents - 16/01/2010

GEAB N°39 - Contents - 16/11/2009

GEAB N°38 - Contents - 16/10/2009

GEAB N°37 - Contents - 16/09/2009

GEAB N°35 - Contents - 16/05/2009

GEAB N°34 - Contents - 17/04/2009

GEAB N°33 - Contents - 16/03/2009

GEAB N°32 - Contents - 17/02/2009

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GEAB N°42 - Contents

- Published on February 16, 2010 -

Second half of 2010: Sudden intensification of the global systemic crisis – Strengthening of five fundamental negative trends
Our team anticipates, in this 42nd issue of the GEAB, a sudden intensification of the crisis in the second half of 2010, caused by a double effect of a catching up of events which were temporarily « frozen » in the second half of 2009 and the impossibility of maintaining the palliative remedies of past years… (page 2)
. The five characteristics which make up the « Greek case » into the tree with which one tries to hide the forest (page 5)
. Goldman Sachs’ role in this Greek tragedy… and the next sovereign defaults (page 7)
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Three fundamental trends aggravating the crisis in the second half of 2010
For LEAP/E2020, behind the « sophisticated » dissertations on the exit from the crisis and the end of the policies of support for the economy and the financial sector hides a very simple truth, but one which governments and central bankers are unable to express: they don’t know what to do? when to do it? how to do it? and if they should do it alone or with the other big global players?… (page 9)
The explosion of the bubble in public deficits and the corresponding increase in states failing to pay (page 10)
The fatal impact of the Western banking system with mounting payment defaults and the wall of maturing debt (page 13)
The inevitable rise in interest rates (page 15)
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Russia: Better prepared to face the coming years than the other big global players
That may seem paradoxical, especially for those who merely read the Western media, however the country has gone through a major transition towards the world after 1945 … since 1989. Russia is, a priori, assured of a lasting period of stable central power, which is far from being the case for the other major global players… (page 17)
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Strategic and operational recommendations
Currencies, Commercial real estate, Stocks, Precious metals (gold, silver, platinium…) (page 21)
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The GlobalEurometre - Results & Analyses
This month’s results show the existence of very contradictory trends, with strong directional changes depending on the issues. March will show whether these changes are lasting, or simply a sign of general confusion created by media commentary which is contrary to the personal experiences of those polled… (page 22)
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