GEAB N°40 - Contents


- Published on December 16, 2009 -



Spring 2010 – A new tipping point of the global systemic crisis: When the slip knot around public deficits is going to strangle Western states and their social security systems
LEAP/E2020 believes that the global systemic crisis will experience a new tipping point from Spring 2010. Indeed, at that time, the public finances of the major Western countries are going to become unmanageable, as it will simultaneously become clear that new support measures for the economy are needed because of the failure of the various stimuli in 2009, and that the size of budget deficits preclude any significant new expenditures... (page 2)
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. Dubai: a clear example of what banks qualify as a « riskless asset » (page 4)
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. Greek debt crisis: A small problem for Frankfurt and a strong warning for Washington and London (page 5)
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The big Western dilemma in Spring 2010: Managing budget deficits versus new plans to boost the economy – Japan / Germany / France / United Kingdom / United States
Next Spring will be the defining moment on this issue for each country and, especially, the time when the first results will be available concerning either the success of these stimulus plans, or the relevance of deficit control policies: sovereign debt and currencies will suffer direct and brutal consequences… (page 8)
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Evaluation of GEAB’s 2009 anticipations: A 72% success rate
Before presenting its 2010 anticipations (which will appear in the GEAB January 2010 issue (N°41)) and within the framework of an ongoing evaluation of its analyses, LEAP/E2020 has prepared a balance sheet of its 2009 anticipations to establish their reliability… (page 14)
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Strategic and operational recommendations
. Expatriates: Taxes and currencies-facing up to the two big uncertainties of 2010
. Commercial real estate (page 22)
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The GlobalEurometre - Results & Analyses
Europeans continue to be almost completely unanimous (95%) in thinking that the EU must start negotiations with China, Russia, Brazil, India and Japan in 2010 on the subject of a new international reference currency… (page 23)
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Mercredi 16 Décembre 2009

GEAB N°46 - Contents

- Published on June 16, 2010 -

Global systemic crisis / Second half of 2010: The global system’s four single points of failure
The second half of 2010 will thus correspond to a new step in the global geopolitical dislocation, characterized by an acceleration in the process of strategic, financial, economic and social convulsions centered on four single points of failure of the international system... (page 2)
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Western public debt: When insolvency becomes intolerable
Between now and the end of 2010 the whole world will have learned all the lessons from the « Greek crisis ». In fact, there are only two lessons to learn from… (page 5)
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European austerity: When contextual growth is abandoned in favour of structural stability
In speaking of the Eurozone we have written about « a policy » of austerity and not « policies of austerity » as indeed Germany now sets the standards on the subject... (page 8)
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Chinese inflation: When China is going to begin exporting its inflation
As anticipated by LEAP/E2020, the Chinese new impetus plan is coming to an end and opens up two connected problems... (page 12)
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US contraction: From « hidden mass austerity » to « imposed Federal austerity »
The November 2010 mid-term elections will be the first electoral test of a United States in crisis... (page 14)
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Second series of elements for a methodology of political anticipation: Questions about source material and team management
Second series of excerpts from the Manual of Political Anticipation which LEAP will publish in October 2010. (page 19)
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Strategic and operational recommendations for the second half of 2010
US municipal bond market (« munis »): The major shock
Currencies: The hurricane will strengthen with even higher waves!
World stock markets face the unthinkable
Gold, cash, precious metals, real estate… (page 23)
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The GlobalEurometre - Results & Analyses
Those polled are now unanimously agreed (a rare case for the GlobalEurometre) calling for the establishment of European and Asiatic rating agencies so as to no longer depend on the goodwill of Moody’s, Fitch and Standard & Poor’s.… (page 26)
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Special subscribers’ announcements
EU-Russia seminar, Nice, September 23/24 septembre, 2010
Political Anticipation Academy, cycle 2010-2011 (page 30)
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