GEAB N°38 - Contents

- Published on October 16, 2009 -

Global Systemic Crisis – The European Union at a crossroads in 2010: an accomplice or a victim of the collapse of the dollar?
According to LEAP/E2020, in 2010, the European Union having four strategic core requirements, will be compelled to take a number of urgent decisions in a context of a fast collapse of the Western camp that could be summed up as the US Dollar’s fate. The decisions taken by the EU will define the role the Europeans will be playing in the post-crisis world... (page 2)
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EU faced with four strategic requirements in 2010
LEAP/E2020 develops anticipations regarding four strategic requirements for which the EU will need to find solutions in 2010. The speeding up of the crisis in a context of global geopolitical dislocation will make it impossible for European leaders to even think about escaping it. The nature of the answers found by the EU will shape the post-crisis world on a long-term basis… (page 7)

Global geopolitical dislocation – Controlled nuclear dissemination: Urgent action is needed to avoid a direct Israel/Iran conflict
Strategy is a matter of turning quagmires into opportunities. And, indeed, there is a way to turn Iran’s nuclear crisis into a means of stabilizing the Middle-East and offering the world a few decades of strategic stability. The way consists of transforming the obsolete Nuclear Non-Proliferation treaty into a treaty of Controlled Nuclear Dissemination… (page 15)

Country-risk (2009-2014): At a crossroads between the two terminal phases of the crisis, the decanting phase and the global geopolitical dislocation phase - Five groups of countries experiencing very different development
In this 38th issue of the GEAB, our team presents its « crisis-related country-risk » annual update. Their analysis is based on nine criteria. It is intended as a decision-support instrument which has already proved its relevance by accurately anticipating the developments of the past twelve months… (page 19)

Strategic and operational recommendations
. Currencies/Gold: The absolute necessity
. Interest rates: Warning! Danger straight ahead
. Shares/Bonds: Trend reversal in sight
. « Risk appetite » : An iconoclastic explanation (page 22)

The GlobalEurometre - Results & Analyses
Citizens’ dissatisfaction with governments’ response to people’s expectations on European construction continues to move much higher (95 percent). Obviously the Irish ratification of the Lisbon Treaty has not changed European citizens’ feelings about the European actions of their leaders… (page 23)

Vendredi 16 Octobre 2009
Marie-Helene Caillol
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GEAB N°90 - Contents

- Published on December 15, 2014 -

Global systemic crisis 2015 – Oil, currencies, finance, societies, the Middle East : Massive storm in the Western port!

. « Global systemic crisis: the end of the West we have known since 1945 »
. The oil crisis is systemic because it is linked to the end of the all-oil era
. The US in one hell of a state
. Europe post-Ukraine: lots of questions
. Three missions for the new Europe: resolve the Ukrainian crisis, put Euro-Russian relations back on the right path, avoid a European QE
. Middle East: traditional alliances’ big waltz
. Saudi Arabia, Iran: the allies change sides
. And Western « values » in all this
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2015 – new phase of the crisis: the oil systemic crisis

. The impact of speculation
. Price War
. Systemic oil crisis and finance
. Systemic oil crisis and geopolitics

Investments, trends and recommendations

. Oil: beware!
. Energy intensive industries like airline companies
. Renewable energy: the good and the bad
. 2015: Euro & Yen rebound
. Gold: still safe

Evaluation of our anticipations for 2014
(from GEAB N° 81 in January 2014): a 69% success rate