GEAB N°38 - Contents


- Published on October 16, 2009 -



Global Systemic Crisis – The European Union at a crossroads in 2010: an accomplice or a victim of the collapse of the dollar?
According to LEAP/E2020, in 2010, the European Union having four strategic core requirements, will be compelled to take a number of urgent decisions in a context of a fast collapse of the Western camp that could be summed up as the US Dollar’s fate. The decisions taken by the EU will define the role the Europeans will be playing in the post-crisis world... (page 2)
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EU faced with four strategic requirements in 2010
LEAP/E2020 develops anticipations regarding four strategic requirements for which the EU will need to find solutions in 2010. The speeding up of the crisis in a context of global geopolitical dislocation will make it impossible for European leaders to even think about escaping it. The nature of the answers found by the EU will shape the post-crisis world on a long-term basis… (page 7)
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Global geopolitical dislocation – Controlled nuclear dissemination: Urgent action is needed to avoid a direct Israel/Iran conflict
Strategy is a matter of turning quagmires into opportunities. And, indeed, there is a way to turn Iran’s nuclear crisis into a means of stabilizing the Middle-East and offering the world a few decades of strategic stability. The way consists of transforming the obsolete Nuclear Non-Proliferation treaty into a treaty of Controlled Nuclear Dissemination… (page 15)
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Country-risk (2009-2014): At a crossroads between the two terminal phases of the crisis, the decanting phase and the global geopolitical dislocation phase - Five groups of countries experiencing very different development
In this 38th issue of the GEAB, our team presents its « crisis-related country-risk » annual update. Their analysis is based on nine criteria. It is intended as a decision-support instrument which has already proved its relevance by accurately anticipating the developments of the past twelve months… (page 19)
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Strategic and operational recommendations
. Currencies/Gold: The absolute necessity
. Interest rates: Warning! Danger straight ahead
. Shares/Bonds: Trend reversal in sight
. « Risk appetite » : An iconoclastic explanation (page 22)
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The GlobalEurometre - Results & Analyses
Citizens’ dissatisfaction with governments’ response to people’s expectations on European construction continues to move much higher (95 percent). Obviously the Irish ratification of the Lisbon Treaty has not changed European citizens’ feelings about the European actions of their leaders… (page 23)
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Vendredi 16 Octobre 2009


In the same category:

GEAB 55 - Contents - 16/05/2011

GEAB 54 - Contents - 16/04/2011

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GEAB N°61 - Contents

- Published on January 16, 2012 -

Global systemic crisis - 2012: The year of the world’s great geopolitical swing
This GEAB issue makes it six years that the LEAP/ E2020 team have shared their anticipations with their subscribers and readers of their public briefing on the development of the global systemic crisis each month. And, for the first time, in the January issue which presents a summary of our anticipations for the year to come, our team anticipates a year which will not result solely in a worsening of the world crisis but which will also be characterized by the emergence of the first constructive elements of the “world after the crisis”… (page 2)
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USA 2012: on the way towards the tragedy of QE3
Today, US financial policy is confronted by the sovereign debt crisis of which it will be the ultimate victim in 2012. As LEAP/E2020 anticipated, the 2011 European debt detonator has truly ignited the 2012 American sovereign debt bomb, even if the media coverage desperately tries to make us believe the opposite. The massive sale of US Treasury Bills by the planet’s major central banks in the second half-year 2011 perfectly illustrates this situation incidentally… (page 7)
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ANTICIPATIONS 2012 - ‘20-UP AND 15-DOWN’, THIRTY FIVE KEY TRENDS FOR 2012
Up or Down? The United States' political paralysis; The City and Wall Street ; The rise in interest rates; The forfeiting of value to Wall Street and the City; The value of Chinese reserves; The Pound Sterling (and Gilts); Euroland as new European sovereign; The USA-China “little cold war”; Italy; The importance of the US Dollar in world trade transactions; Rating agencies; The “great European public borrowing” (GEPB); MerkHollMont; Ron Paul; The number, size and influence of Western banks; The continuation of gold’s return in the international monetary system; Recessflation; Sarkozy, Cameron, Netanyahu and Medvedev; The BRICS maturing as a pro-active world player; Turkey’s exit from the Western camp; The Tobin Eurotax; Secular and pro-Western forces in the Muslim world; Growth; The usefulness of the G20; Lawsuits against those managing banks and hedge funds; The splitting of the world monetary system into three zones: Dollar, Euro, Yuan; The widespread downgrade of Western public debt; Peoples' anger; The Euro crisis; The EU as the principal incarnation of Europe; QE3 as the ultimate weapon for saving the US economy; The US’ capacity for military intervention; The West as a community of relevance and values; Scottish independence; Le détroit d'Ormuz et un nouveau contexte de crise au Moyen-Orient ; L'indépendance de l'Ecosse; The Straits of Hormuz and a new context of the Middle East crisis (page 19) (page 19)
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The GlobalEurometre - Results & Analyses
We are seeing a strengthening in the majority considering that common European solutions to the crisis are more effective than national ones (80% in January versus 77% in December)… (page 33)
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