GLOBAL SYSTEMIC CRISIS Press clippings
UK house prices fall for second monthTelegraph
GM, Ford post double-digit drop in August salesMarket Watch
Beck, Palin tell thousands to 'restore America'Washington Post
U.S. Economy Slowed to 1.6% Pace in 2nd QuarterNew York Times
Four possible scenarios for the future of IsraelNewropeans Magazine
El-Erian: How to read Bernanke’s Jackson Hole SpeechFinancial Times - Alphaville
Durable Goods Collapse24/7 Wall St
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GEAB N°35 - Contents- Published May 16, 2009 -
Global systemic crisis: June 2009 - When the world steps out of a sixty-year old referential framework
The financial surrealism which has been chairing stock market trends, financial indicators and political commentaries in the past two months, is in fact the swan song of the referential framework within which the world has lived since 1945… (page 2) Read public announcement Programmed failure of US and Chinese economic stimulus plans: The “absorption capacity barrier” Despite impressive budgets, the two largest economic stimulus plans to date - those initiated by the governments of the United States and the People's Republic of China - are doomed to fail. LEAP/E2020 anticipates that, in the next few months, their implementation will face an insurmountable obstacle in the short term, the “absorption capacity barrier”... (page 7) Subscribe United Kingdom: Meeting with the IMF at the end of summer 2009 Thirty-three years ago, between March and December 1976, the world faced the consequences of the oil crisis and the United Kingdom was compelled to call the IMF for financial support (USD 3.9-billion, the largest loan ever granted at that time by the institution). According to LEAP/E2020, the United Kingdom is about to renew its appeal to the IMF by the end of summer 2009.… (page 15) Subscribe Three strategic advices and recommendations 1. Which indicators to trust in this crisis? 2. Real estate: When to buy, where? 3. Bonds, Treasuries: Which ones to chose? (page 19) Subscribe The GlobalEurometre - Results & Analyses A large majority (67 percent) think that the British government will not be able to avoid calling the IMF for help by the end of summer 2009… (page 23) Subscribe Samedi 16 Mai 2009
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GEAB N°46 - Contents- Published on June 16, 2010 -
Global systemic crisis / Second half of 2010: The global system’s four single points of failure
The second half of 2010 will thus correspond to a new step in the global geopolitical dislocation, characterized by an acceleration in the process of strategic, financial, economic and social convulsions centered on four single points of failure of the international system... (page 2) Subscribe Western public debt: When insolvency becomes intolerable Between now and the end of 2010 the whole world will have learned all the lessons from the « Greek crisis ». In fact, there are only two lessons to learn from… (page 5) Subscribe European austerity: When contextual growth is abandoned in favour of structural stability In speaking of the Eurozone we have written about « a policy » of austerity and not « policies of austerity » as indeed Germany now sets the standards on the subject... (page 8) Subscribe Chinese inflation: When China is going to begin exporting its inflation As anticipated by LEAP/E2020, the Chinese new impetus plan is coming to an end and opens up two connected problems... (page 12) Subscribe US contraction: From « hidden mass austerity » to « imposed Federal austerity » The November 2010 mid-term elections will be the first electoral test of a United States in crisis... (page 14) Read public announcement Second series of elements for a methodology of political anticipation: Questions about source material and team management Second series of excerpts from the Manual of Political Anticipation which LEAP will publish in October 2010. (page 19) Subscribe Strategic and operational recommendations for the second half of 2010 US municipal bond market (« munis »): The major shock Currencies: The hurricane will strengthen with even higher waves! World stock markets face the unthinkable Gold, cash, precious metals, real estate… (page 23) Subscribe The GlobalEurometre - Results & Analyses Those polled are now unanimously agreed (a rare case for the GlobalEurometre) calling for the establishment of European and Asiatic rating agencies so as to no longer depend on the goodwill of Moody’s, Fitch and Standard & Poor’s.… (page 26) Subscribe Special subscribers’ announcements EU-Russia seminar, Nice, September 23/24 septembre, 2010 Political Anticipation Academy, cycle 2010-2011 (page 30) Subscribe |
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GEAB N°46 - Contents