GEAB N°35 - Contents


- Published May 16, 2009 -



Global systemic crisis: June 2009 - When the world steps out of a sixty-year old referential framework
The financial surrealism which has been chairing stock market trends, financial indicators and political commentaries in the past two months, is in fact the swan song of the referential framework within which the world has lived since 1945… (page 2)
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Programmed failure of US and Chinese economic stimulus plans: The “absorption capacity barrier”
Despite impressive budgets, the two largest economic stimulus plans to date - those initiated by the governments of the United States and the People's Republic of China - are doomed to fail. LEAP/E2020 anticipates that, in the next few months, their implementation will face an insurmountable obstacle in the short term, the “absorption capacity barrier”... (page 7)
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United Kingdom: Meeting with the IMF at the end of summer 2009
Thirty-three years ago, between March and December 1976, the world faced the consequences of the oil crisis and the United Kingdom was compelled to call the IMF for financial support (USD 3.9-billion, the largest loan ever granted at that time by the institution). According to LEAP/E2020, the United Kingdom is about to renew its appeal to the IMF by the end of summer 2009.… (page 15)
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Three strategic advices and recommendations
1. Which indicators to trust in this crisis?
2. Real estate: When to buy, where?
3. Bonds, Treasuries: Which ones to chose? (page 19)
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The GlobalEurometre - Results & Analyses
A large majority (67 percent) think that the British government will not be able to avoid calling the IMF for help by the end of summer 2009… (page 23)
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Samedi 16 Mai 2009


In the same category:

GEAB N°43 - Contents - 16/03/2010

GEAB N°42 - Contents - 16/02/2010

GEAB N°41 - Contents - 16/01/2010

GEAB N°40 - Contents - 16/12/2009

GEAB N°39 - Contents - 16/11/2009

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GEAB N°37 - Contents - 16/09/2009

GEAB N°36 (Summer 2009 special edition) - Contents - 17/06/2009

GEAB N°34 - Contents - 17/04/2009

GEAB N°33 - Contents - 16/03/2009

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GEAB N°43 - Contents

- Published on March 16, 2010 -

The crisis marks the end of pre-eminence in the financial sphere and the lasting decline of the City and Wall Street
It is a geopolitical, as much as an economic, financial and monetary approach which led LEAP, in February 2006, to announce the imminent arrival of what we have called « the global systemic crisis ». This same approach now tends to confirm that, in the « world after the crisis », the real economy will, once again, take on a central role, whilst these last few decades have been marked by a virtual economy in the financial sector being at the centre of affairs… (page 2)
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The five steps of the global geopolitical dislocation phase (page 7)
Beginning of the phase of global geopolitical dislocation (page 12)
Step 1: Monetary disputes and financial shocks (page 12)
Step 2: Trade disputes (page 14)
Step 3: State crises (page 14)
Step 4: Socio-political crises (page 16)
Step 5: Strategic crises (page 17)
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« Danger warning »: A list of eight sovereign risks more dangerous than Greece
Based on the most recent information available, the LEAP/E2020 team has refined its country risk classification published last autumn. From that it is clearly apparent that eight large countries are in a worse position than Greece, exactly confirming our anticipation that the Greek problem is only a tree hiding the forest… (page 18)
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Strategic and operational recommendations
Currencies, Stocks and Bonds, Country’s degree of socio-political risk… (page 20)
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The GlobalEurometre - Results & Analyses
A further change in the majority worried about the possibility of political and social upheaval in their country: those believing in such a development constitute, once again, a substantial majority this month (76% versus 57% who thought the opposite in February)… (page 22)
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