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GLOBAL SYSTEMIC CRISIS Press clippings
December trade deficit at widest in six monthsMarket Watch
High-yield bond buyers skeptical of job gainsMarket Watch
Latin American leaders assail U.S. drug ‘market’Washington Post
China's export drops 0.5% y-o-y in JanShanghai Daily
A New Generation Aims to Revitalize RussiaDer Spiegel
Landmark settlement announced on foreclosure, mortgage fraudWashington Post
PASOK deputies seek deficit probeEkathimerini
Mean-Spirited, Bad EconomicsIn These New Times
China's CPI at three-month highChina Daily
Bank of England adds another dose of QEMarket Watch
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GEAB N°32 - Contents- Published February 16, 2009 -
4th quarter 2009 – Beginning of Phase 5 of the global systemic crisis: phase of global geopolitical dislocation
Back in February 2006, LEAP/E2020 estimated that the global systemic crisis would unfold in 4 main structural phases: trigger, acceleration, impact and decanting phases. This process enabled us to properly anticipate events until now. However our team has now come to the conclusion that, due to the global leaders’ incapacity to fully realise the scope of the ongoing crisis (made obvious by their determination to cure the consequences rather than the causes of this crisis), the global systemic crisis will enter a fifth phase in the fourth quarter of 2009, a phase of global geopolitical dislocation... (page 2) Read public announcement Two major processes at the centre of the phase of global geopolitical dislocation On the one hand, the base on which this global order has been founded for at least thirty years is disappearing, a base made up of a mixture of US Dollars and of American, British and more generally Western debts. On the other hand, the interests of the main players in the global system have begun diverging at an increasing pace, whatever the G7, G20 and other international organizations may publish in their press releases... (page 6) Subscribe Two parallel sequences in the phase of global geopolitical dislocation These two parallel (but not necessarily synchronized) sequences involve, on the one hand, a sequence of quick disintegration of the present international system altogether, resulting from the growing incapacity of the main international organisations and markets to keep on playing their role efficiently; and, on the other hand, a sequence of strategic dislocation directly affecting the big global players such as the United States, China, Russia and the EU. For some of these players, this sequence will undermine their territorial integrity and their socio-economic fabric, as well as the very structure of their political power and their influence on the world... (page 11) Subscribe Recommendations: Preparing for the phase of geopolitical dislocation As we have previously forecast in this 32nd issue of the GEAB, the fifth phase of the global systemic crisis will affect countries and regions within one political entity differently. However, it is possible to make a number of general recommendations to avoid being trapped in the process of geopolitical dislocation. To this end, it is important to assess three major factors determining the gravity of the social, political and economic dislocation in your country or region… (page 19) Subscribe The GlobalEurometre - Results & Analyses The Europeans are harsh on the G20: 85 percent estimate that the next G20 summit in London will not bring any solution to the crisis… (page 21) Subscribe Mardi 17 Février 2009
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GEAB N°61 - Contents- Published on January 16, 2012 -
Global systemic crisis - 2012: The year of the world’s great geopolitical swing
This GEAB issue makes it six years that the LEAP/ E2020 team have shared their anticipations with their subscribers and readers of their public briefing on the development of the global systemic crisis each month. And, for the first time, in the January issue which presents a summary of our anticipations for the year to come, our team anticipates a year which will not result solely in a worsening of the world crisis but which will also be characterized by the emergence of the first constructive elements of the “world after the crisis”… (page 2) Read public announcement USA 2012: on the way towards the tragedy of QE3 Today, US financial policy is confronted by the sovereign debt crisis of which it will be the ultimate victim in 2012. As LEAP/E2020 anticipated, the 2011 European debt detonator has truly ignited the 2012 American sovereign debt bomb, even if the media coverage desperately tries to make us believe the opposite. The massive sale of US Treasury Bills by the planet’s major central banks in the second half-year 2011 perfectly illustrates this situation incidentally… (page 7) Subscribe ANTICIPATIONS 2012 - ‘20-UP AND 15-DOWN’, THIRTY FIVE KEY TRENDS FOR 2012 Up or Down? The United States' political paralysis; The City and Wall Street ; The rise in interest rates; The forfeiting of value to Wall Street and the City; The value of Chinese reserves; The Pound Sterling (and Gilts); Euroland as new European sovereign; The USA-China “little cold war”; Italy; The importance of the US Dollar in world trade transactions; Rating agencies; The “great European public borrowing” (GEPB); MerkHollMont; Ron Paul; The number, size and influence of Western banks; The continuation of gold’s return in the international monetary system; Recessflation; Sarkozy, Cameron, Netanyahu and Medvedev; The BRICS maturing as a pro-active world player; Turkey’s exit from the Western camp; The Tobin Eurotax; Secular and pro-Western forces in the Muslim world; Growth; The usefulness of the G20; Lawsuits against those managing banks and hedge funds; The splitting of the world monetary system into three zones: Dollar, Euro, Yuan; The widespread downgrade of Western public debt; Peoples' anger; The Euro crisis; The EU as the principal incarnation of Europe; QE3 as the ultimate weapon for saving the US economy; The US’ capacity for military intervention; The West as a community of relevance and values; Scottish independence; Le détroit d'Ormuz et un nouveau contexte de crise au Moyen-Orient ; L'indépendance de l'Ecosse; The Straits of Hormuz and a new context of the Middle East crisis (page 19) (page 19) Subscribe The GlobalEurometre - Results & Analyses We are seeing a strengthening in the majority considering that common European solutions to the crisis are more effective than national ones (80% in January versus 77% in December)… (page 33) Subscribe 
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GEAB N°61 - Contents