GEAB N°31 - Contents

- Published January 16, 2009 -

Phase IV of the systemic crisis: The sequence of global insolvency begins
In 2007, LEAP/E2020 announced that US banks and consumers were both insolvent. More than a year ago, our team estimated that USD 10,000-billion worth in « ghost-assets » would vanish in the crisis. In the same line, LEAP/E2020 today estimates that a new sequence of the fourth phase (so-called « decanting phase ») of the unfolding global systemic crisis has began: the sequence of global insolvency… (page 2)
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. How to make the difference between a crisis of solvency and a crisis of liquidity? (page 3)
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. The actions taken today by governments and central banks are inefficient and dangerous for savers (page 5)

. Towards a world war of interest rates aimed at capturing global savings (page 7)

‘15-UP AND 14-DOWN’, Twenty-Nine Key Trends of 2009 – Fifteen subjects gain momentum along the year 2009 / Fourteen subjects lose momentum along the year 2009
Up or Down? State defaults; corporate profits; Very Great US depression; social unrest; middle-class purchasing power; UK, sick-man of Europe; US, sick-man of the world; industry and agriculture, central economic activities; Russian- and Chinese-style authoritarian management of economic modernization; anti-Semitism in the US; Brown, Merkel, Obama and Sarkozy; globalization; inflation; social welfare systems; regional blocks; NATO; instability in the Middle-East; EU-Russia strategic partnership; Eurozone; Yen-Yuan-Euro; Dollar-Sterling Pound-Swiss Franc; US T-Bonds; the Bretton Woods system; CDS (Credit Default Swaps); big financial scandals; « billionaires »; economic recovery... (page 11)

The GlobalEurometre - Results & Analyses
On the future of the British pound, the verdict of the Europeans is clear-cut: 86 percent estimate that it has no future as an international currency… (page 24)

Samedi 17 Janvier 2009
Marie-Helene Caillol
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GEAB N°90 - Contents

- Published on December 15, 2014 -

Global systemic crisis 2015 – Oil, currencies, finance, societies, the Middle East : Massive storm in the Western port!

. « Global systemic crisis: the end of the West we have known since 1945 »
. The oil crisis is systemic because it is linked to the end of the all-oil era
. The US in one hell of a state
. Europe post-Ukraine: lots of questions
. Three missions for the new Europe: resolve the Ukrainian crisis, put Euro-Russian relations back on the right path, avoid a European QE
. Middle East: traditional alliances’ big waltz
. Saudi Arabia, Iran: the allies change sides
. And Western « values » in all this
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2015 – new phase of the crisis: the oil systemic crisis

. The impact of speculation
. Price War
. Systemic oil crisis and finance
. Systemic oil crisis and geopolitics

Investments, trends and recommendations

. Oil: beware!
. Energy intensive industries like airline companies
. Renewable energy: the good and the bad
. 2015: Euro & Yen rebound
. Gold: still safe

Evaluation of our anticipations for 2014
(from GEAB N° 81 in January 2014): a 69% success rate