GEAB N°29 - Contents


- Published November 17, 2008 -



Phase IV of the Global Systemic crisis: Breakdown of the Global Monetary System by summer 2009
The G20-meeting held in Washington on November 14/15, 2008, clearly demonstrated that this kind of summits is doomed to inefficiency because they concentrate on curing the symptoms (banks’ and hedge funds’ financial difficulties, derivative markets’ explosion, financial and currency markets’ dramatic volatility, ...) rather than the fundamental root of the current crisis, i.e. the collapse of the Bretton Woods system based on the US Dollar as sole pillar of the global monetary system… (page 2)
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Three visions of the future of global governance will be dividing world’s largest players (United-States, Eurozone, China, Japan, Russia, Brazil) by spring 2009
The world’s main players’ trajectories are now diverging. The G20 Summit which took place in Washington on November 15th, 2008, did not show a convergence of views, whatever may pretend the common declaration, in fact focused on mere details, declarations of intent and virtual measures aimed at preventing future crises to happen when the current one is only beginning... (page 9)
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Strategic and operational recommendations
. Limit yourself to Wysiwyg investments!
. Reappraise your beliefs and beware of reflex-actions: Before making a decision, do the LEAP/E2020-test « Is your safe haven value still one? »
. Currencies: Getting ready for the mid-2009 global monetary system crash
. Special US citizens: Getting ready for the US default
(page 14)
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Paradox: Why LEAP/E2020 in GEAB N°27 under-estimated the force of the impact phase of the global systemic crisis
The force of the blow generated last September by the world’s entrance into the impact phase of the global crisis, despite the fact that LEAP/E2020 anticipated it as early as February 2008 and elaborated on it in June 2008, was so important that it even managed to catch our team, resulting in the under-estimation of some of its consequences in GEAB N°28... (page 21)
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The GlobalEurometre - Results & Analyses
With 88 percent of the people surveyed convinced that the US dollar will keep falling (and none at all claiming the contrary), the Europeans appear to have resumed with their pre-summer 2008 level of pessimism regarding the future of the US currency… (page 25)
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Lundi 17 Novembre 2008


In the same category:

GEAB 55 - Contents - 16/05/2011

GEAB 54 - Contents - 16/04/2011

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GEAB N°61 - Contents

- Published on January 16, 2012 -

Global systemic crisis - 2012: The year of the world’s great geopolitical swing
This GEAB issue makes it six years that the LEAP/ E2020 team have shared their anticipations with their subscribers and readers of their public briefing on the development of the global systemic crisis each month. And, for the first time, in the January issue which presents a summary of our anticipations for the year to come, our team anticipates a year which will not result solely in a worsening of the world crisis but which will also be characterized by the emergence of the first constructive elements of the “world after the crisis”… (page 2)
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USA 2012: on the way towards the tragedy of QE3
Today, US financial policy is confronted by the sovereign debt crisis of which it will be the ultimate victim in 2012. As LEAP/E2020 anticipated, the 2011 European debt detonator has truly ignited the 2012 American sovereign debt bomb, even if the media coverage desperately tries to make us believe the opposite. The massive sale of US Treasury Bills by the planet’s major central banks in the second half-year 2011 perfectly illustrates this situation incidentally… (page 7)
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ANTICIPATIONS 2012 - ‘20-UP AND 15-DOWN’, THIRTY FIVE KEY TRENDS FOR 2012
Up or Down? The United States' political paralysis; The City and Wall Street ; The rise in interest rates; The forfeiting of value to Wall Street and the City; The value of Chinese reserves; The Pound Sterling (and Gilts); Euroland as new European sovereign; The USA-China “little cold war”; Italy; The importance of the US Dollar in world trade transactions; Rating agencies; The “great European public borrowing” (GEPB); MerkHollMont; Ron Paul; The number, size and influence of Western banks; The continuation of gold’s return in the international monetary system; Recessflation; Sarkozy, Cameron, Netanyahu and Medvedev; The BRICS maturing as a pro-active world player; Turkey’s exit from the Western camp; The Tobin Eurotax; Secular and pro-Western forces in the Muslim world; Growth; The usefulness of the G20; Lawsuits against those managing banks and hedge funds; The splitting of the world monetary system into three zones: Dollar, Euro, Yuan; The widespread downgrade of Western public debt; Peoples' anger; The Euro crisis; The EU as the principal incarnation of Europe; QE3 as the ultimate weapon for saving the US economy; The US’ capacity for military intervention; The West as a community of relevance and values; Scottish independence; Le détroit d'Ormuz et un nouveau contexte de crise au Moyen-Orient ; L'indépendance de l'Ecosse; The Straits of Hormuz and a new context of the Middle East crisis (page 19) (page 19)
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The GlobalEurometre - Results & Analyses
We are seeing a strengthening in the majority considering that common European solutions to the crisis are more effective than national ones (80% in January versus 77% in December)… (page 33)
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