GEAB N°29 - Contents


- Published November 17, 2008 -



Phase IV of the Global Systemic crisis: Breakdown of the Global Monetary System by summer 2009
The G20-meeting held in Washington on November 14/15, 2008, clearly demonstrated that this kind of summits is doomed to inefficiency because they concentrate on curing the symptoms (banks’ and hedge funds’ financial difficulties, derivative markets’ explosion, financial and currency markets’ dramatic volatility, ...) rather than the fundamental root of the current crisis, i.e. the collapse of the Bretton Woods system based on the US Dollar as sole pillar of the global monetary system… (page 2)
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Three visions of the future of global governance will be dividing world’s largest players (United-States, Eurozone, China, Japan, Russia, Brazil) by spring 2009
The world’s main players’ trajectories are now diverging. The G20 Summit which took place in Washington on November 15th, 2008, did not show a convergence of views, whatever may pretend the common declaration, in fact focused on mere details, declarations of intent and virtual measures aimed at preventing future crises to happen when the current one is only beginning... (page 9)
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Strategic and operational recommendations
. Limit yourself to Wysiwyg investments!
. Reappraise your beliefs and beware of reflex-actions: Before making a decision, do the LEAP/E2020-test « Is your safe haven value still one? »
. Currencies: Getting ready for the mid-2009 global monetary system crash
. Special US citizens: Getting ready for the US default
(page 14)
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Paradox: Why LEAP/E2020 in GEAB N°27 under-estimated the force of the impact phase of the global systemic crisis
The force of the blow generated last September by the world’s entrance into the impact phase of the global crisis, despite the fact that LEAP/E2020 anticipated it as early as February 2008 and elaborated on it in June 2008, was so important that it even managed to catch our team, resulting in the under-estimation of some of its consequences in GEAB N°28... (page 21)
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The GlobalEurometre - Results & Analyses
With 88 percent of the people surveyed convinced that the US dollar will keep falling (and none at all claiming the contrary), the Europeans appear to have resumed with their pre-summer 2008 level of pessimism regarding the future of the US currency… (page 25)
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Lundi 17 Novembre 2008


In the same category:

GEAB N°42 - Contents - 16/02/2010

GEAB N°41 - Contents - 16/01/2010

GEAB N°40 - Contents - 16/12/2009

GEAB N°39 - Contents - 16/11/2009

GEAB N°38 - Contents - 16/10/2009

GEAB N°37 - Contents - 16/09/2009

GEAB N°35 - Contents - 16/05/2009

GEAB N°34 - Contents - 17/04/2009

GEAB N°33 - Contents - 16/03/2009

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GEAB N°42 - Contents

- Published on February 16, 2010 -

Second half of 2010: Sudden intensification of the global systemic crisis – Strengthening of five fundamental negative trends
Our team anticipates, in this 42nd issue of the GEAB, a sudden intensification of the crisis in the second half of 2010, caused by a double effect of a catching up of events which were temporarily « frozen » in the second half of 2009 and the impossibility of maintaining the palliative remedies of past years… (page 2)
. The five characteristics which make up the « Greek case » into the tree with which one tries to hide the forest (page 5)
. Goldman Sachs’ role in this Greek tragedy… and the next sovereign defaults (page 7)
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Three fundamental trends aggravating the crisis in the second half of 2010
For LEAP/E2020, behind the « sophisticated » dissertations on the exit from the crisis and the end of the policies of support for the economy and the financial sector hides a very simple truth, but one which governments and central bankers are unable to express: they don’t know what to do? when to do it? how to do it? and if they should do it alone or with the other big global players?… (page 9)
The explosion of the bubble in public deficits and the corresponding increase in states failing to pay (page 10)
The fatal impact of the Western banking system with mounting payment defaults and the wall of maturing debt (page 13)
The inevitable rise in interest rates (page 15)
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Russia: Better prepared to face the coming years than the other big global players
That may seem paradoxical, especially for those who merely read the Western media, however the country has gone through a major transition towards the world after 1945 … since 1989. Russia is, a priori, assured of a lasting period of stable central power, which is far from being the case for the other major global players… (page 17)
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Strategic and operational recommendations
Currencies, Commercial real estate, Stocks, Precious metals (gold, silver, platinium…) (page 21)
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The GlobalEurometre - Results & Analyses
This month’s results show the existence of very contradictory trends, with strong directional changes depending on the issues. March will show whether these changes are lasting, or simply a sign of general confusion created by media commentary which is contrary to the personal experiences of those polled… (page 22)
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