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GLOBAL SYSTEMIC CRISIS Press clippings
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GEAB N°28 - Contents- Published October 16, 2008 -
Global systemic crisis Alert - Summer 2009: The US government defaults on its debt
In this 28th edition of the GEAB, LEAP/E2020 has decided to launch a new global systemic crisis alert. Indeed our researchers anticipate that, before next summer 2009, the US government will default and be prevented to repay its creditors (holders of US Treasury Bonds, of Fanny May and Freddy Mac shares, etc.)… (page 2) Read public announcement Summer 2009: The US government defaults on its debt Five factors directly lead the United States to defaulting on their debt by summer 2009: The recent upward trend of the US Dollar is a direct and temporary consequence of the collapse of stock markets; With its recent « political baptism », the Euro becomes a credible « safe haven » value and therefore provides a « crisis » alternative to the US dollar; The US public debt now swells uncontrollably; The ongoing collapse of US real economy prevents from finding an alternative solution to the country's defaulting; « Strong inflation or hyper-inflation in the US in 2009? », that is the only question. (page 8) Subscribe End of 2008: The world enters the decanting phase of the global systemic crisis - Anticipations over 2008-2013 for six groups of countries experiencing very different evolutions In this October edition of the GEAB (N°28), we therefore chose to establish the anticipatory calendar of the so-called « decanting phase », i.e. a phase along which the outcome of the crisis begins reshaping the global system. Our studies thus enabled us to make anticipations for the 2008-2013 period and for 6 groups of countries differently impacted by the 4 specific sequences of this phase: financial crisis, economic crisis, social crisis and political crisis… (page 16) Subscribe Eight strategic recommendations and operational advices in times of crisis Stocks: going back there or not? Emerging countries : the selection begins; Iran, Venezuela, Oil ; Some tools to help you choose your banks; Risk or no risk; Currencies ; How to save one’s retirement plan? How to run a sovereign fund amidst the storm? (page 20) Subscribe The GlobalEurometre - Results & Analyses As to what kind of response the EU should bring forward, the people surveyed nearly unanimously (95 percent) agree on a large-scale EU programme of infrastructure building/improving. (page 23) Subscribe Jeudi 16 Octobre 2008
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GEAB N°61 - Contents- Published on January 16, 2012 -
Global systemic crisis - 2012: The year of the world’s great geopolitical swing
This GEAB issue makes it six years that the LEAP/ E2020 team have shared their anticipations with their subscribers and readers of their public briefing on the development of the global systemic crisis each month. And, for the first time, in the January issue which presents a summary of our anticipations for the year to come, our team anticipates a year which will not result solely in a worsening of the world crisis but which will also be characterized by the emergence of the first constructive elements of the “world after the crisis”… (page 2) Read public announcement USA 2012: on the way towards the tragedy of QE3 Today, US financial policy is confronted by the sovereign debt crisis of which it will be the ultimate victim in 2012. As LEAP/E2020 anticipated, the 2011 European debt detonator has truly ignited the 2012 American sovereign debt bomb, even if the media coverage desperately tries to make us believe the opposite. The massive sale of US Treasury Bills by the planet’s major central banks in the second half-year 2011 perfectly illustrates this situation incidentally… (page 7) Subscribe ANTICIPATIONS 2012 - ‘20-UP AND 15-DOWN’, THIRTY FIVE KEY TRENDS FOR 2012 Up or Down? The United States' political paralysis; The City and Wall Street ; The rise in interest rates; The forfeiting of value to Wall Street and the City; The value of Chinese reserves; The Pound Sterling (and Gilts); Euroland as new European sovereign; The USA-China “little cold war”; Italy; The importance of the US Dollar in world trade transactions; Rating agencies; The “great European public borrowing” (GEPB); MerkHollMont; Ron Paul; The number, size and influence of Western banks; The continuation of gold’s return in the international monetary system; Recessflation; Sarkozy, Cameron, Netanyahu and Medvedev; The BRICS maturing as a pro-active world player; Turkey’s exit from the Western camp; The Tobin Eurotax; Secular and pro-Western forces in the Muslim world; Growth; The usefulness of the G20; Lawsuits against those managing banks and hedge funds; The splitting of the world monetary system into three zones: Dollar, Euro, Yuan; The widespread downgrade of Western public debt; Peoples' anger; The Euro crisis; The EU as the principal incarnation of Europe; QE3 as the ultimate weapon for saving the US economy; The US’ capacity for military intervention; The West as a community of relevance and values; Scottish independence; Le détroit d'Ormuz et un nouveau contexte de crise au Moyen-Orient ; L'indépendance de l'Ecosse; The Straits of Hormuz and a new context of the Middle East crisis (page 19) (page 19) Subscribe The GlobalEurometre - Results & Analyses We are seeing a strengthening in the majority considering that common European solutions to the crisis are more effective than national ones (80% in January versus 77% in December)… (page 33) Subscribe 
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GEAB N°61 - Contents