GEAB N°28 - Contents


- Published October 16, 2008 -



Global systemic crisis Alert - Summer 2009: The US government defaults on its debt
In this 28th edition of the GEAB, LEAP/E2020 has decided to launch a new global systemic crisis alert. Indeed our researchers anticipate that, before next summer 2009, the US government will default and be prevented to repay its creditors (holders of US Treasury Bonds, of Fanny May and Freddy Mac shares, etc.)… (page 2)
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Summer 2009: The US government defaults on its debt
Five factors directly lead the United States to defaulting on their debt by summer 2009: The recent upward trend of the US Dollar is a direct and temporary consequence of the collapse of stock markets; With its recent « political baptism », the Euro becomes a credible « safe haven » value and therefore provides a « crisis » alternative to the US dollar; The US public debt now swells uncontrollably; The ongoing collapse of US real economy prevents from finding an alternative solution to the country's defaulting; « Strong inflation or hyper-inflation in the US in 2009? », that is the only question. (page 8)
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End of 2008: The world enters the decanting phase of the global systemic crisis - Anticipations over 2008-2013 for six groups of countries experiencing very different evolutions
In this October edition of the GEAB (N°28), we therefore chose to establish the anticipatory calendar of the so-called « decanting phase », i.e. a phase along which the outcome of the crisis begins reshaping the global system. Our studies thus enabled us to make anticipations for the 2008-2013 period and for 6 groups of countries differently impacted by the 4 specific sequences of this phase: financial crisis, economic crisis, social crisis and political crisis… (page 16)
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Eight strategic recommendations and operational advices in times of crisis
Stocks: going back there or not? Emerging countries : the selection begins; Iran, Venezuela, Oil ; Some tools to help you choose your banks; Risk or no risk; Currencies ; How to save one’s retirement plan? How to run a sovereign fund amidst the storm? (page 20)
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The GlobalEurometre - Results & Analyses
As to what kind of response the EU should bring forward, the people surveyed nearly unanimously (95 percent) agree on a large-scale EU programme of infrastructure building/improving. (page 23)
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Jeudi 16 Octobre 2008


In the same category:

GEAB N°41 - Contents - 16/01/2010

GEAB N°40 - Contents - 16/12/2009

GEAB N°39 - Contents - 16/11/2009

GEAB N°38 - Contents - 16/10/2009

GEAB N°37 - Contents - 16/09/2009

GEAB N°36 (Summer 2009 special edition) - Contents - 17/06/2009

GEAB N°35 - Contents - 16/05/2009

GEAB N°34 - Contents - 17/04/2009

GEAB N°33 - Contents - 16/03/2009

GEAB N°32 - Contents - 17/02/2009

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GEAB N°41 - Contents

- Published on January 16, 2010 -

Calendar 2010 – 2020 / The « tragic twilight » of the world-before-the-crisis
The publication of this first GEAB of the year, where we usually publish our anticipations for the next twelve months, exceptionally coincides with the beginning of a new decade and, what is more, a decade which all careful observers feel will mark an upheaval in the world order. Our team has seized this occasion to give our subscribers the benefit of a rational geopolitical « dive » into what the coming decade holds for us… (page 2)
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To prepare 2010 - ’15 UP AND 15 DOWN’, 30 KEY TRENDS FOR 2010 – Fifteen topics which are going to increase in importance during 2010 / Fifteen key subjects which are going to fade away between now and the end of 2010
The US Federal reserve; The Very Great US Depression; The future of the United Kingdom; Global warming; Gold; Yuan; Unemployment and social dislocation; Global geopolitical dislocation; Eurozone; Speculative bubbles; Dollar, Pound Sterling and Yen; Greece as a Eurozone menace; Latin America; BRIC summits; Global recovery; Globalisation; EU governance; China’s economic miracle; The likelihood of a NATO victory in Afghanistan; G20; The middle-East “Peace Process”; State bankruptcies; Israel-USA/Iran conflict; Social safety net systems; Trade blocs; US T-bonds; Tax reductions; Nicolas Sarkozy… (page 8)
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The Decade 2010 – 2020: Towards a knockout victory by gold over the Dollar
We have often reminded readers in different GEAB issues that gold constitutes both a medium/long term investment intended to protect one’s capital against the risk of a loss in value of paper currencies and financial assets, and an eventual means of payment in the event of a very serious monetary crisis. In these two cases the choice of placing a portion of one’s assets in gold is a response to anticipating events and risks in the coming years (and not the coming weeks or months). For this GEAB N°41, a special edition at the beginning of a new decade, it seems opportune to LEAP/E2020 to put forward its anticipations on gold’s progress for 2010 – 2020, completing what the team wrote in issue N°34 of the GEAB in April 2009… (page 19)
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The GlobalEurometre - Results & Analyses
Citizens’ discontent with European government action compared to the expectations of their people climbs slightly, though remaining at very high levels (96%). The « Lisbon Treaty » effect clearly hasn’t happened.… (page 24)
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