GEAB N°26 - Contents

LEAP/E2020 Summer 2008 Alert – July-December 2008: The world plunges into the heart of the global systemic crisis
The upcoming six months are in fact the core of the unfolding crisis… (page 2)
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Global overview: Eight trends mark the coming semester

1. A Dollar in distress (EUR 1 = USD 1.75 at the end of 2008): Panic-fear of a US currency and economy collapse eats into the American collective psyche
Bernanke, Paulson and Bush bark but the USD will not deviate one iota from EUR 1 = USD 1.75 at the end of 2008, according to the forecasts of LEAP/E2020… (page 3)
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2. Global financial system: An impossible requirement – placing Washington under international trusteeship – provokes the system’s break
Washington’s decision to raise the bids for the return to a « strong Dollar » bears the seeds of an acceleration of the global financial system’s breaking process… (page 9)
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3. European Union: The periphery sinks into the recession, the Eurozone only slows down
As regards the European Union, the situation will be contrasted, as anticipated many times by LEAP/2020… (page 11)
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4. Asia: The « double whammy » inflation/export-collapse
Economies based on cheap costs and exports, hit by inflation and recession (US) or economic slowdown (EU) in two major export markets, these are the characteristics of the situation for Asian countries in the coming six months… (page 12)
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5. Latin America: Difficulties increase but growth remains steady in most parts of the region, Mexico and Argentina in crisis
The Very great US Depression will have very specific direct consequences on all countries of the area, namely in Central America and the North of South-America.… (page 13)
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6. Arab world: Pro-Western regimes go adrift / 60 percent risk of socio-political explosion on Egypt-Morocco axis
According to LEAP/E2020, the global systemic crisis contributes to weaken Arab states’ pro-Western regimes … (page 14)
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7. Iran: 70 percent probability of an attack by October 2008 confirmed
The nomination of Barak Obama as the Democrat opponent to John McCain props up the risk
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8. Banks/Speculative bubbles: When bubbles collide
World banks, American and British in particular, will be trapped between 4 bubbles, in fact now four bombs… (page 16)
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The decisive six months to avoid a global recession: Five strategic advices for central banks, governments and other regulatory authorities
Two measures must be implemented urgently as early as this summer 2008, two measures must be launched in the second semester of 2008 and a general stampede in case the two first measures are not implemented by the end of summer 2008… (page 18)
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Eight crucial advices to avoid committing fatal mistakes during the plunge into the heart of the phase of impact of the crisis
Five categories of assets must be avoided by any means and three positive recommendations (page 26)
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The GlobalEurometre - Results & Analyses
94 percent of the Europeans estimate that national political parties are not able to represent their collective European interest… (page 30)
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