GEAB N°22 - Contents


- Published on February 16, 2008 -



Global systemic crisis / September 2008 - Phase of collapse of US real economy
The end of the third quarter of 2008 will be marked by a new tipping point in the unfolding of the global systemic crisis. In the United States, this new tipping point will translate into a collapse of the real economy, final socio-economic stage of the serial bursting of the housing and financial bubbles and of the pursuance of the US dollar fall.... (page 2)
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The four main factors at work in the collapse of US real economy
In the coming months, four main factors combine and provoke the collapse if US real economy. LEAP/E2020 describes them below:
US companies: The two effects of the financial crisis
US consumers: Consuming times are over, saving is back
US municipalities: Shutdown of public services
US Dollar: Towards the Dollar-Carry Trade (page 6)
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Five strategic and operational recommendations to be protected from the aggravation of the crisis
Stocks or bonds?
The recognition of a new « American risk
The new safe heaven currencies
Real estate: Selling, keeping or buying ?
Risking less for losing less (page 15)
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France on its way to a regime crisis by Fall 2008
The domestic political situation in France is deteriorating very rapidly, on both the political front and in terms of economic and financial matters. According to LEAP/E2020, this situation is prone to result in a very severe political crisis, a regime crisis, that will question the very bases of the French political and institutional system’s mechanisms, and that will generate a significant social unrest… (page 17)
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GlobalEurometre - Results & Analyses
With 100 percent of the respondents convinced that the US dollar’s fall is ineluctable, the European opinion on the evolution of the US currency has become radical: they are now sure that the US currency is on its way for a long-lasting fall. This opinion is not only about the EURUSD exchange rate, but about the value of the US currency compared to all the main international currencies… (page 21)
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Samedi 16 Février 2008


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GEAB N°43 - Contents

- Published on March 16, 2010 -

The crisis marks the end of pre-eminence in the financial sphere and the lasting decline of the City and Wall Street
It is a geopolitical, as much as an economic, financial and monetary approach which led LEAP, in February 2006, to announce the imminent arrival of what we have called « the global systemic crisis ». This same approach now tends to confirm that, in the « world after the crisis », the real economy will, once again, take on a central role, whilst these last few decades have been marked by a virtual economy in the financial sector being at the centre of affairs… (page 2)
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The five steps of the global geopolitical dislocation phase (page 7)
Beginning of the phase of global geopolitical dislocation (page 12)
Step 1: Monetary disputes and financial shocks (page 12)
Step 2: Trade disputes (page 14)
Step 3: State crises (page 14)
Step 4: Socio-political crises (page 16)
Step 5: Strategic crises (page 17)
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« Danger warning »: A list of eight sovereign risks more dangerous than Greece
Based on the most recent information available, the LEAP/E2020 team has refined its country risk classification published last autumn. From that it is clearly apparent that eight large countries are in a worse position than Greece, exactly confirming our anticipation that the Greek problem is only a tree hiding the forest… (page 18)
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Strategic and operational recommendations
Currencies, Stocks and Bonds, Country’s degree of socio-political risk… (page 20)
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The GlobalEurometre - Results & Analyses
A further change in the majority worried about the possibility of political and social upheaval in their country: those believing in such a development constitute, once again, a substantial majority this month (76% versus 57% who thought the opposite in February)… (page 22)
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