GEAB N°22 - Contents


- Published on February 16, 2008 -



Global systemic crisis / September 2008 - Phase of collapse of US real economy
The end of the third quarter of 2008 will be marked by a new tipping point in the unfolding of the global systemic crisis. In the United States, this new tipping point will translate into a collapse of the real economy, final socio-economic stage of the serial bursting of the housing and financial bubbles and of the pursuance of the US dollar fall.... (page 2)
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The four main factors at work in the collapse of US real economy
In the coming months, four main factors combine and provoke the collapse if US real economy. LEAP/E2020 describes them below:
US companies: The two effects of the financial crisis
US consumers: Consuming times are over, saving is back
US municipalities: Shutdown of public services
US Dollar: Towards the Dollar-Carry Trade (page 6)
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Five strategic and operational recommendations to be protected from the aggravation of the crisis
Stocks or bonds?
The recognition of a new « American risk
The new safe heaven currencies
Real estate: Selling, keeping or buying ?
Risking less for losing less (page 15)
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France on its way to a regime crisis by Fall 2008
The domestic political situation in France is deteriorating very rapidly, on both the political front and in terms of economic and financial matters. According to LEAP/E2020, this situation is prone to result in a very severe political crisis, a regime crisis, that will question the very bases of the French political and institutional system’s mechanisms, and that will generate a significant social unrest… (page 17)
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GlobalEurometre - Results & Analyses
With 100 percent of the respondents convinced that the US dollar’s fall is ineluctable, the European opinion on the evolution of the US currency has become radical: they are now sure that the US currency is on its way for a long-lasting fall. This opinion is not only about the EURUSD exchange rate, but about the value of the US currency compared to all the main international currencies… (page 21)
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Samedi 16 Février 2008


In the same category:

GEAB 55 - Contents - 16/05/2011

GEAB 54 - Contents - 16/04/2011

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GEAB N°61 - Contents

- Published on January 16, 2012 -

Global systemic crisis - 2012: The year of the world’s great geopolitical swing
This GEAB issue makes it six years that the LEAP/ E2020 team have shared their anticipations with their subscribers and readers of their public briefing on the development of the global systemic crisis each month. And, for the first time, in the January issue which presents a summary of our anticipations for the year to come, our team anticipates a year which will not result solely in a worsening of the world crisis but which will also be characterized by the emergence of the first constructive elements of the “world after the crisis”… (page 2)
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USA 2012: on the way towards the tragedy of QE3
Today, US financial policy is confronted by the sovereign debt crisis of which it will be the ultimate victim in 2012. As LEAP/E2020 anticipated, the 2011 European debt detonator has truly ignited the 2012 American sovereign debt bomb, even if the media coverage desperately tries to make us believe the opposite. The massive sale of US Treasury Bills by the planet’s major central banks in the second half-year 2011 perfectly illustrates this situation incidentally… (page 7)
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ANTICIPATIONS 2012 - ‘20-UP AND 15-DOWN’, THIRTY FIVE KEY TRENDS FOR 2012
Up or Down? The United States' political paralysis; The City and Wall Street ; The rise in interest rates; The forfeiting of value to Wall Street and the City; The value of Chinese reserves; The Pound Sterling (and Gilts); Euroland as new European sovereign; The USA-China “little cold war”; Italy; The importance of the US Dollar in world trade transactions; Rating agencies; The “great European public borrowing” (GEPB); MerkHollMont; Ron Paul; The number, size and influence of Western banks; The continuation of gold’s return in the international monetary system; Recessflation; Sarkozy, Cameron, Netanyahu and Medvedev; The BRICS maturing as a pro-active world player; Turkey’s exit from the Western camp; The Tobin Eurotax; Secular and pro-Western forces in the Muslim world; Growth; The usefulness of the G20; Lawsuits against those managing banks and hedge funds; The splitting of the world monetary system into three zones: Dollar, Euro, Yuan; The widespread downgrade of Western public debt; Peoples' anger; The Euro crisis; The EU as the principal incarnation of Europe; QE3 as the ultimate weapon for saving the US economy; The US’ capacity for military intervention; The West as a community of relevance and values; Scottish independence; Le détroit d'Ormuz et un nouveau contexte de crise au Moyen-Orient ; L'indépendance de l'Ecosse; The Straits of Hormuz and a new context of the Middle East crisis (page 19) (page 19)
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The GlobalEurometre - Results & Analyses
We are seeing a strengthening in the majority considering that common European solutions to the crisis are more effective than national ones (80% in January versus 77% in December)… (page 33)
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