GEAB N°22 - Contents


- Published on February 16, 2008 -



Global systemic crisis / September 2008 - Phase of collapse of US real economy
The end of the third quarter of 2008 will be marked by a new tipping point in the unfolding of the global systemic crisis. In the United States, this new tipping point will translate into a collapse of the real economy, final socio-economic stage of the serial bursting of the housing and financial bubbles and of the pursuance of the US dollar fall.... (page 2)
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The four main factors at work in the collapse of US real economy
In the coming months, four main factors combine and provoke the collapse if US real economy. LEAP/E2020 describes them below:
US companies: The two effects of the financial crisis
US consumers: Consuming times are over, saving is back
US municipalities: Shutdown of public services
US Dollar: Towards the Dollar-Carry Trade (page 6)
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Five strategic and operational recommendations to be protected from the aggravation of the crisis
Stocks or bonds?
The recognition of a new « American risk
The new safe heaven currencies
Real estate: Selling, keeping or buying ?
Risking less for losing less (page 15)
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France on its way to a regime crisis by Fall 2008
The domestic political situation in France is deteriorating very rapidly, on both the political front and in terms of economic and financial matters. According to LEAP/E2020, this situation is prone to result in a very severe political crisis, a regime crisis, that will question the very bases of the French political and institutional system’s mechanisms, and that will generate a significant social unrest… (page 17)
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GlobalEurometre - Results & Analyses
With 100 percent of the respondents convinced that the US dollar’s fall is ineluctable, the European opinion on the evolution of the US currency has become radical: they are now sure that the US currency is on its way for a long-lasting fall. This opinion is not only about the EURUSD exchange rate, but about the value of the US currency compared to all the main international currencies… (page 21)
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Samedi 16 Février 2008


In the same category:

GEAB N°41 - Contents - 16/01/2010

GEAB N°40 - Contents - 16/12/2009

GEAB N°39 - Contents - 16/11/2009

GEAB N°38 - Contents - 16/10/2009

GEAB N°37 - Contents - 16/09/2009

GEAB N°36 (Summer 2009 special edition) - Contents - 17/06/2009

GEAB N°35 - Contents - 16/05/2009

GEAB N°34 - Contents - 17/04/2009

GEAB N°33 - Contents - 16/03/2009

GEAB N°32 - Contents - 17/02/2009

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GEAB N°41 - Contents

- Published on January 16, 2010 -

Calendar 2010 – 2020 / The « tragic twilight » of the world-before-the-crisis
The publication of this first GEAB of the year, where we usually publish our anticipations for the next twelve months, exceptionally coincides with the beginning of a new decade and, what is more, a decade which all careful observers feel will mark an upheaval in the world order. Our team has seized this occasion to give our subscribers the benefit of a rational geopolitical « dive » into what the coming decade holds for us… (page 2)
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To prepare 2010 - ’15 UP AND 15 DOWN’, 30 KEY TRENDS FOR 2010 – Fifteen topics which are going to increase in importance during 2010 / Fifteen key subjects which are going to fade away between now and the end of 2010
The US Federal reserve; The Very Great US Depression; The future of the United Kingdom; Global warming; Gold; Yuan; Unemployment and social dislocation; Global geopolitical dislocation; Eurozone; Speculative bubbles; Dollar, Pound Sterling and Yen; Greece as a Eurozone menace; Latin America; BRIC summits; Global recovery; Globalisation; EU governance; China’s economic miracle; The likelihood of a NATO victory in Afghanistan; G20; The middle-East “Peace Process”; State bankruptcies; Israel-USA/Iran conflict; Social safety net systems; Trade blocs; US T-bonds; Tax reductions; Nicolas Sarkozy… (page 8)
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The Decade 2010 – 2020: Towards a knockout victory by gold over the Dollar
We have often reminded readers in different GEAB issues that gold constitutes both a medium/long term investment intended to protect one’s capital against the risk of a loss in value of paper currencies and financial assets, and an eventual means of payment in the event of a very serious monetary crisis. In these two cases the choice of placing a portion of one’s assets in gold is a response to anticipating events and risks in the coming years (and not the coming weeks or months). For this GEAB N°41, a special edition at the beginning of a new decade, it seems opportune to LEAP/E2020 to put forward its anticipations on gold’s progress for 2010 – 2020, completing what the team wrote in issue N°34 of the GEAB in April 2009… (page 19)
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The GlobalEurometre - Results & Analyses
Citizens’ discontent with European government action compared to the expectations of their people climbs slightly, though remaining at very high levels (96%). The « Lisbon Treaty » effect clearly hasn’t happened.… (page 24)
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