GLOBAL SYSTEMIC CRISIS Press clippings
UK house prices fall for second monthTelegraph
GM, Ford post double-digit drop in August salesMarket Watch
Beck, Palin tell thousands to 'restore America'Washington Post
U.S. Economy Slowed to 1.6% Pace in 2nd QuarterNew York Times
Four possible scenarios for the future of IsraelNewropeans Magazine
El-Erian: How to read Bernanke’s Jackson Hole SpeechFinancial Times - Alphaville
Durable Goods Collapse24/7 Wall St
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GEAB N°2 - Contents1- March 20-26, 2006 – Release of major world crisis: « The End of the Western World we have known since 1945 »
We estimate to over 80% the probability that the week of March 20 to 6, 2006 will be the beginning of the most significant political crisis the world has known since the Fall of the Iron Curtain in 1989, together with an economic and financial crisis of comparable scope to the 1929 crisis. This last week of March 2006 will be the turning-point of a number of critical developments, resulting in an acceleration of all the factors leading to a major crisis, disregard any American or Israeli military intervention against Iran. In case such an intervention is conducted, the probability of a major crisis to start rises up to 100%, according to LEAP/E2020… (pages 2 et 3)
Read public announcement 2- The seven facets of the world crisis in gestation
The American and Iranian decisions coming into effect during the last week of March 2006, will catalyse and turn into a total crisis seven sectoral crises affecting the whole planet in the political, economic, financial and probably military fields: loss of confidence in the Dollar, explosion of the US financial imbalances, oil crisis, end of the global US leadership, distrust towards the Arab-Muslim world, inefficiency of the global governance, and uncertainties about the European governance … (pages 4 à 7)
Subscribe 3- Euroland facing a Dollar plunge
The world crisis anticipated for the end of March 2006 will provide a test for the Euroland and determine the sustainability of its currency. The Dollar plunge will put upward pressure on the Euro against all other currencies (the Chinese currency in particular). This situation will result in the immediate and significant fall of the competitiveness of European companies exporting towards the Dollar zone, with a negative impact on European exportations and an immediate aggravation of unemployment in the Euro zone. Facing such a situation, the temptation will be strong for some countries to get away from the Euro. But … (pages 8 et 9)
Subscribe 4- The future of the EU constitutional project: Analysis of the converging capacity among the various institutional players
The internal difficulties of the member-states in continuing the European constitutional project were detailed in GEAB Nr1. This month LEAP/E2020 undertakes to analyse the converging capacity on this subject of the various institutional players. It is indeed one of the three requirements identified in this field… (pages 9 et 10)
Subscribe 5- GlobalEurometre
This month’s three indicators of the GlobalEurometre: Tide-Action, Tide-Legitimacy and Tide-Governance (page 11)
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GEAB N°46 - Contents- Published on June 16, 2010 -
Global systemic crisis / Second half of 2010: The global system’s four single points of failure
The second half of 2010 will thus correspond to a new step in the global geopolitical dislocation, characterized by an acceleration in the process of strategic, financial, economic and social convulsions centered on four single points of failure of the international system... (page 2) Subscribe Western public debt: When insolvency becomes intolerable Between now and the end of 2010 the whole world will have learned all the lessons from the « Greek crisis ». In fact, there are only two lessons to learn from… (page 5) Subscribe European austerity: When contextual growth is abandoned in favour of structural stability In speaking of the Eurozone we have written about « a policy » of austerity and not « policies of austerity » as indeed Germany now sets the standards on the subject... (page 8) Subscribe Chinese inflation: When China is going to begin exporting its inflation As anticipated by LEAP/E2020, the Chinese new impetus plan is coming to an end and opens up two connected problems... (page 12) Subscribe US contraction: From « hidden mass austerity » to « imposed Federal austerity » The November 2010 mid-term elections will be the first electoral test of a United States in crisis... (page 14) Read public announcement Second series of elements for a methodology of political anticipation: Questions about source material and team management Second series of excerpts from the Manual of Political Anticipation which LEAP will publish in October 2010. (page 19) Subscribe Strategic and operational recommendations for the second half of 2010 US municipal bond market (« munis »): The major shock Currencies: The hurricane will strengthen with even higher waves! World stock markets face the unthinkable Gold, cash, precious metals, real estate… (page 23) Subscribe The GlobalEurometre - Results & Analyses Those polled are now unanimously agreed (a rare case for the GlobalEurometre) calling for the establishment of European and Asiatic rating agencies so as to no longer depend on the goodwill of Moody’s, Fitch and Standard & Poor’s.… (page 26) Subscribe Special subscribers’ announcements EU-Russia seminar, Nice, September 23/24 septembre, 2010 Political Anticipation Academy, cycle 2010-2011 (page 30) Subscribe |
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GEAB N°46 - Contents