GEAB N°2 - Contents




1- March 20-26, 2006 – Release of major world crisis: « The End of the Western World we have known since 1945 »

We estimate to over 80% the probability that the week of March 20 to 6, 2006 will be the beginning of the most significant political crisis the world has known since the Fall of the Iron Curtain in 1989, together with an economic and financial crisis of comparable scope to the 1929 crisis. This last week of March 2006 will be the turning-point of a number of critical developments, resulting in an acceleration of all the factors leading to a major crisis, disregard any American or Israeli military intervention against Iran. In case such an intervention is conducted, the probability of a major crisis to start rises up to 100%, according to LEAP/E2020… (pages 2 et 3)

2- The seven facets of the world crisis in gestation

The American and Iranian decisions coming into effect during the last week of March 2006, will catalyse and turn into a total crisis seven sectoral crises affecting the whole planet in the political, economic, financial and probably military fields: loss of confidence in the Dollar, explosion of the US financial imbalances, oil crisis, end of the global US leadership, distrust towards the Arab-Muslim world, inefficiency of the global governance, and uncertainties about the European governance … (pages 4 à 7)

3- Euroland facing a Dollar plunge

The world crisis anticipated for the end of March 2006 will provide a test for the Euroland and determine the sustainability of its currency. The Dollar plunge will put upward pressure on the Euro against all other currencies (the Chinese currency in particular). This situation will result in the immediate and significant fall of the competitiveness of European companies exporting towards the Dollar zone, with a negative impact on European exportations and an immediate aggravation of unemployment in the Euro zone. Facing such a situation, the temptation will be strong for some countries to get away from the Euro. But … (pages 8 et 9)

4- The future of the EU constitutional project: Analysis of the converging capacity among the various institutional players

The internal difficulties of the member-states in continuing the European constitutional project were detailed in GEAB Nr1. This month LEAP/E2020 undertakes to analyse the converging capacity on this subject of the various institutional players. It is indeed one of the three requirements identified in this field… (pages 9 et 10)

5- GlobalEurometre

This month’s three indicators of the GlobalEurometre: Tide-Action, Tide-Legitimacy and Tide-Governance (page 11)

Lundi 2 Octobre 2006



In the same category:

GEAB N°41 - Contents - 16/01/2010

GEAB N°40 - Contents - 16/12/2009

GEAB N°39 - Contents - 16/11/2009

GEAB N°38 - Contents - 16/10/2009

GEAB N°37 - Contents - 16/09/2009

GEAB N°36 (Summer 2009 special edition) - Contents - 17/06/2009

GEAB N°35 - Contents - 16/05/2009

GEAB N°34 - Contents - 17/04/2009

GEAB N°33 - Contents - 16/03/2009

GEAB N°32 - Contents - 17/02/2009

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GEAB N°41 - Contents

- Published on January 16, 2010 -

Calendar 2010 – 2020 / The « tragic twilight » of the world-before-the-crisis
The publication of this first GEAB of the year, where we usually publish our anticipations for the next twelve months, exceptionally coincides with the beginning of a new decade and, what is more, a decade which all careful observers feel will mark an upheaval in the world order. Our team has seized this occasion to give our subscribers the benefit of a rational geopolitical « dive » into what the coming decade holds for us… (page 2)
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To prepare 2010 - ’15 UP AND 15 DOWN’, 30 KEY TRENDS FOR 2010 – Fifteen topics which are going to increase in importance during 2010 / Fifteen key subjects which are going to fade away between now and the end of 2010
The US Federal reserve; The Very Great US Depression; The future of the United Kingdom; Global warming; Gold; Yuan; Unemployment and social dislocation; Global geopolitical dislocation; Eurozone; Speculative bubbles; Dollar, Pound Sterling and Yen; Greece as a Eurozone menace; Latin America; BRIC summits; Global recovery; Globalisation; EU governance; China’s economic miracle; The likelihood of a NATO victory in Afghanistan; G20; The middle-East “Peace Process”; State bankruptcies; Israel-USA/Iran conflict; Social safety net systems; Trade blocs; US T-bonds; Tax reductions; Nicolas Sarkozy… (page 8)
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The Decade 2010 – 2020: Towards a knockout victory by gold over the Dollar
We have often reminded readers in different GEAB issues that gold constitutes both a medium/long term investment intended to protect one’s capital against the risk of a loss in value of paper currencies and financial assets, and an eventual means of payment in the event of a very serious monetary crisis. In these two cases the choice of placing a portion of one’s assets in gold is a response to anticipating events and risks in the coming years (and not the coming weeks or months). For this GEAB N°41, a special edition at the beginning of a new decade, it seems opportune to LEAP/E2020 to put forward its anticipations on gold’s progress for 2010 – 2020, completing what the team wrote in issue N°34 of the GEAB in April 2009… (page 19)
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The GlobalEurometre - Results & Analyses
Citizens’ discontent with European government action compared to the expectations of their people climbs slightly, though remaining at very high levels (96%). The « Lisbon Treaty » effect clearly hasn’t happened.… (page 24)
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