GEAB N°19 - Contents

- Published on November 16, 2007 -

International banks get dragged into financial crisis’ « black hole »: Four triggering factors of a major financial bankruptcy

LEAP/E2020 now estimates that at least one large US financial institution (bank, insurance, investment fund) will file for bankruptcy before February 2008, sparking off bankruptcies among a series of other financial institutions and banks in Europe (in the UK especially), in Asia and in various emerging countries... (page 2)
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Factor N° 1 - Drastic drop in revenues for banks operating in the US

The CDOs altogether are now dragged into a general confidence crisis, and they represent a large part of bank assets since, in the past few years, large banks from lenders became investors and speculators, like hedge funds… (page 4)
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Factor N°2 - Slumping value of assets owned by these banks resulting from new US banking regulation (FASB regulation 157)

On November 15, 2007, a regulatory factor, the FASB 157 standard (designed to enhance transparency of financial statements of financial institutions operating in the US) speeds up the pace of financial organisations’ collapses (American and others)… (page 7)

Factor N°3 – Increasing weakness of bond insurers

Bond insurers are financial markets’ « supports ». Completely unknown to the public today, their names could soon become as common as the word « subprime » has… (page 9)

Factor N°4 – Economic recession in the US

As a complement to our anticipations of the impact of the US economic recession for banks operating in the US, we find it useful to analyse here how much US official statistics have become totally surrealistic… (page 12)

Strategic advice / Operational recommendations for the intention of individual investors, corporate treasurers, financial operators

(page 15)

GlobalEurometre - Results & Analyses

The Europeans seem to make no illusion on the evolution of US policies after the next presidential election, with 65% of the respondents who estimate that G. W. Bush’s successor will not change significantly the American policy… (page 17)

Vendredi 16 Novembre 2007
Marie-Helene Caillol
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GEAB N°90 - Contents

- Published on December 15, 2014 -

Global systemic crisis 2015 – Oil, currencies, finance, societies, the Middle East : Massive storm in the Western port!

. « Global systemic crisis: the end of the West we have known since 1945 »
. The oil crisis is systemic because it is linked to the end of the all-oil era
. The US in one hell of a state
. Europe post-Ukraine: lots of questions
. Three missions for the new Europe: resolve the Ukrainian crisis, put Euro-Russian relations back on the right path, avoid a European QE
. Middle East: traditional alliances’ big waltz
. Saudi Arabia, Iran: the allies change sides
. And Western « values » in all this
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2015 – new phase of the crisis: the oil systemic crisis

. The impact of speculation
. Price War
. Systemic oil crisis and finance
. Systemic oil crisis and geopolitics

Investments, trends and recommendations

. Oil: beware!
. Energy intensive industries like airline companies
. Renewable energy: the good and the bad
. 2015: Euro & Yen rebound
. Gold: still safe

Evaluation of our anticipations for 2014
(from GEAB N° 81 in January 2014): a 69% success rate