GEAB N°19 - Contents


- Published on November 16, 2007 -



International banks get dragged into financial crisis’ « black hole »: Four triggering factors of a major financial bankruptcy

LEAP/E2020 now estimates that at least one large US financial institution (bank, insurance, investment fund) will file for bankruptcy before February 2008, sparking off bankruptcies among a series of other financial institutions and banks in Europe (in the UK especially), in Asia and in various emerging countries... (page 2)
Read public announcement

Factor N° 1 - Drastic drop in revenues for banks operating in the US

The CDOs altogether are now dragged into a general confidence crisis, and they represent a large part of bank assets since, in the past few years, large banks from lenders became investors and speculators, like hedge funds… (page 4)
Read public announcement

Factor N°2 - Slumping value of assets owned by these banks resulting from new US banking regulation (FASB regulation 157)

On November 15, 2007, a regulatory factor, the FASB 157 standard (designed to enhance transparency of financial statements of financial institutions operating in the US) speeds up the pace of financial organisations’ collapses (American and others)… (page 7)
Subscribe

Factor N°3 – Increasing weakness of bond insurers

Bond insurers are financial markets’ « supports ». Completely unknown to the public today, their names could soon become as common as the word « subprime » has… (page 9)
Subscribe

Factor N°4 – Economic recession in the US

As a complement to our anticipations of the impact of the US economic recession for banks operating in the US, we find it useful to analyse here how much US official statistics have become totally surrealistic… (page 12)
Subscribe

Strategic advice / Operational recommendations for the intention of individual investors, corporate treasurers, financial operators

(page 15)
Subscribe

GlobalEurometre - Results & Analyses

The Europeans seem to make no illusion on the evolution of US policies after the next presidential election, with 65% of the respondents who estimate that G. W. Bush’s successor will not change significantly the American policy… (page 17)
Subscribe

Vendredi 16 Novembre 2007


In the same category:

GEAB N°43 - Contents - 16/03/2010

GEAB N°42 - Contents - 16/02/2010

GEAB N°41 - Contents - 16/01/2010

GEAB N°40 - Contents - 16/12/2009

GEAB N°39 - Contents - 16/11/2009

GEAB N°38 - Contents - 16/10/2009

GEAB N°37 - Contents - 16/09/2009

GEAB N°36 (Summer 2009 special edition) - Contents - 17/06/2009

GEAB N°35 - Contents - 16/05/2009

GEAB N°34 - Contents - 17/04/2009

1 2 3 4 5

GEAB N°43 - Contents

- Published on March 16, 2010 -

The crisis marks the end of pre-eminence in the financial sphere and the lasting decline of the City and Wall Street
It is a geopolitical, as much as an economic, financial and monetary approach which led LEAP, in February 2006, to announce the imminent arrival of what we have called « the global systemic crisis ». This same approach now tends to confirm that, in the « world after the crisis », the real economy will, once again, take on a central role, whilst these last few decades have been marked by a virtual economy in the financial sector being at the centre of affairs… (page 2)
Subscribe

The five steps of the global geopolitical dislocation phase (page 7)
Beginning of the phase of global geopolitical dislocation (page 12)
Step 1: Monetary disputes and financial shocks (page 12)
Step 2: Trade disputes (page 14)
Step 3: State crises (page 14)
Step 4: Socio-political crises (page 16)
Step 5: Strategic crises (page 17)
Read public announcement

« Danger warning »: A list of eight sovereign risks more dangerous than Greece
Based on the most recent information available, the LEAP/E2020 team has refined its country risk classification published last autumn. From that it is clearly apparent that eight large countries are in a worse position than Greece, exactly confirming our anticipation that the Greek problem is only a tree hiding the forest… (page 18)
Subscribe

Strategic and operational recommendations
Currencies, Stocks and Bonds, Country’s degree of socio-political risk… (page 20)
Subscribe

The GlobalEurometre - Results & Analyses
A further change in the majority worried about the possibility of political and social upheaval in their country: those believing in such a development constitute, once again, a substantial majority this month (76% versus 57% who thought the opposite in February)… (page 22)
Subscribe
Full page