GEAB N°10 - Contents


- Published on December 16, 2006 -



Global systemic crisis 2007: The four most affected sectors

With a EURUSD exchange rate now steadily above 1.30, the LEAP/E2020 researchers feel entitled to consider that the impact phase of the global systemic crisis has well started. Now in this month of December, LEAP/E2020 is able to anticipate precisely the four main sectors which shall be at the centre of the global systemic crisis in the year 2007, these are: international trade; exchange rates; financial sector; energy.
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International trade in 2007: The US at the origin of the big return of protectionism and commercial wars

According to LEAP/E2020, there is a good reason why US leaders keep hustling in Beijing: they are trying to prevent a direct economic and financial confrontation from emerging between the US and China in 2007. Repeated travels on the part of many prominent US figures to the Chinese capital, such as those being made by no less than seven cabinet Secretaries plus the US Federal Reserve’s president on the occasion of the « Strategic Economic Dialogue », are a clear signal of tensions growing between the two countries and of Washington’s weakness on an issue in which the US do not have much to offer.
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Exchange rates in 2007: Great turmoil in the wake of the dollar collapse

Considering the accelerating diversification of currency reserves out of the dollar, LEAP/E2020 anticipates that in the first quarter of 2007, for the first time since 1945, the share of reserves in US dollars will fall under 60% and that the 50% threshold will be reached sometimes during the first semester of 2008. A recent report published by the Bank of International Settlements shows that this trend is for a large part organised by the central banks of Europe, Asia, Russia and oil-producing countries, and that it is likely to result in a new 20% to 30% fall in the dollar’s value against all the other big currencies, but the Pound Sterling.
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Financial sector in 2007: « Another bubble » close to bursting

A large number of events - whose importance began to reveal at this end of 2006 - is about to thrust the world’s financial sector into a process of deep crisis: depreciation of US dollar-based assets, monetisation of US debt, fast degradation of US banks’ and of some EU banks’ balance-sheets, low-level of banks’ reserves, fast depreciation of housing loans and recession of the US economy.
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Energy in 2007: A chaotic way out of the « dollar era »

Energy prices will be affected by the two-fold impact of the Middle-East’s implosion and of the dollar collapse. Indeed producing countries are still depending a lot on the US dollar to invoice their transactions, even if Russia walked away from the US dollar in favour of the ruble and even if Iran has reduced to the minimum its exchanges in dollars. As a result, producing countries are strongly affected by the US Dollar’s 10% loss in value, against the Euro in particular (their largest trade partner now), directly reducing their purchasing power. They are therefore tempted to either raise the price in dollar of their energy, or to accelerate their way out of the « dollar era » like what the Gulf States are preparing with the creation by 2010 of a common currency on the model of the Euro.
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Investor’s counsel - Currencies and assets


GlobalEurometre - Results and analysis


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GEAB N°65 - Contents

- Published on May 16, 2012 -

Global systemic crisis / Second half of 2012 – Convergence of four explosive factors: Banks-Stock Exchanges-Pensions-Debts
Whilst waiting for Euroland to equip itself, by the end of 2012, with a medium to long term common political, economic and social project, especially following the election of the new French president François Hollande, anticipated many months ago by LEAP/E2020, players will remain prisoners of the short-term reflexes related to the sudden Greek political tremors, the uncertainties over Euroland governance and to the risks in public debts… (page 2)
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Which languages must your child learn to be useful to him in twenty years ? Anticipation of the principal intra-European and world common languages in a 2030 timframe
Beyond its cultural interest LEAP/E2020 has created this anticipation as a tool to aid decision-making, individual (parents for the education of their children) as much as collective (public education institutions, universities, states, international businesses). Individual and joint strategies as regards language teaching are long term processes needing fundamental choices to be made almost a generation in advance… (page 11)
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Strategic and operational recommendations
. Currencies-Gold: Stay on course
. Pensions: Preserving one’s capital
. Stock Exchanges: Last exit before chaos
. Banks: Maximum distrust
. Government bonds: The trap is closing (page 21)
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The GlobalEurometre - Results & Analysis
The majority of respondents believing that their country’s major banks could go bankrupt by the end of 2012 has risen to 66% this month (versus 61% last month)… (page 23)
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