GEAB N°1 - Contents




1- EU: A constitutional deadlock and the crisis of the analytical system of/on the EU

EU: A constitutional deadlock and the crisis of the analytical system of/on the EU
In this beginning of 2006, the project of constitutional treaty is still at the centre of most EU discussions. Does this mean that the process of ratification is being rejuvenated or is it the sign of a profound deadlock in which EU institutions and political leaders are stuck? What course will follow the EU between today and the June 2006 Summit, a summit first designed to mark the end of the “thinking era” initiated in June 2005?... (page 2)

2- The future of the European Constitutional Treaty: Member-states amidst the hardships of the Constitutional Treaty’s future

The French and Dutch « Noes » broke the constitutional march projected by the European institutions and the governments. The unexpected freeze of the ratification process all around the EU proves it. This freeze illustrates the immense problem raised by the French and Dutch votes in each and every other member-state: national political classes are from now on afraid of the ratification process itself… (pages 3 & 4)

3- Euroland, a Summit almost on us!

Between today and June 2006, the political leaders of the Eurozone will face a simple requirement: resume with the « Euro project » of which Euroland is nothing but the first step; or pay the electoral cost for giving up the pursuit of economic integration and for leaving Euroland affairs management in the sole hands of central bankers … (page 5)

4- USA 2010 : the catastrophe-scenario

Europe 2020/LEAP elaborated a medium-term anticipation scenario about the United-States, using the same conceptual tools which served to give birth to a now well-known scenario: “2009 – When the grand-sons of Pétain, Hitler, Mussolini, Franco and Stalin will take over the EU”. This new scenario is entitled: “2010: When the Washington Wall will fall…”.
Here is a summary of it… (pages 5 & 6)

5- GlobalEurometre

Each month, the GEAB team will poll a group of 50 European opinion leaders on 10 questions related to EU developments out of which 5 will be identical over long periods in order to measure opinion changes. These are the conclusions of the first GlobalEurometre poll … (page 7 & 8)

Lundi 2 Octobre 2006
LEAP / Europe 2020
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GEAB N°75 - Contents

- Published on May 16, 2013 -

Systemic crisis 2013: with record stock exchange highs, the planets imminent plunge into recession
The world economy is slowing down badly and a widespread recession is looming. The various players are fully aware of it and, in the face of the challenges of an imminent collapse, countries or regions are putting various strategies in place to try and limit the consequences… (page 2)
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BoJ, Fed, ECB : with different methods, contrasting futures
In order to see the unfolding of the global systemic crisis more clearly, we must understand how the major western central banks act, the limits, the advantages, and the disadvantages of their interventions. We explain their policies in broad terms… (page 9)
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GEAB Dollar and Euro index
The traditional Dollar Index (used by the financial markets) is an unreliable indicator for forecasting US Dollar developments. Henceforth, our team will also publish the GEAB $ index together with the GEAB € index… (page 14)
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Strategic and operational recommendations
. Decoupling of paper and physical gold
. European sovereign bonds: the ECB is still the boss
. Stock exchanges: when QE rains money ! … (page 17)
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The GlobalEurometre - Results and analysis
The general tone of this month's poll is sombre, to say the least. Confidence in the capacity to manage the Euro crisis has literally collapsed this month, the fear of losing money has significantly risen … (page 18)
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