GEAB N°1 - Contents




1- EU: A constitutional deadlock and the crisis of the analytical system of/on the EU

EU: A constitutional deadlock and the crisis of the analytical system of/on the EU
In this beginning of 2006, the project of constitutional treaty is still at the centre of most EU discussions. Does this mean that the process of ratification is being rejuvenated or is it the sign of a profound deadlock in which EU institutions and political leaders are stuck? What course will follow the EU between today and the June 2006 Summit, a summit first designed to mark the end of the “thinking era” initiated in June 2005?... (page 2)

2- The future of the European Constitutional Treaty: Member-states amidst the hardships of the Constitutional Treaty’s future

The French and Dutch « Noes » broke the constitutional march projected by the European institutions and the governments. The unexpected freeze of the ratification process all around the EU proves it. This freeze illustrates the immense problem raised by the French and Dutch votes in each and every other member-state: national political classes are from now on afraid of the ratification process itself… (pages 3 & 4)

3- Euroland, a Summit almost on us!

Between today and June 2006, the political leaders of the Eurozone will face a simple requirement: resume with the « Euro project » of which Euroland is nothing but the first step; or pay the electoral cost for giving up the pursuit of economic integration and for leaving Euroland affairs management in the sole hands of central bankers … (page 5)

4- USA 2010 : the catastrophe-scenario

Europe 2020/LEAP elaborated a medium-term anticipation scenario about the United-States, using the same conceptual tools which served to give birth to a now well-known scenario: “2009 – When the grand-sons of Pétain, Hitler, Mussolini, Franco and Stalin will take over the EU”. This new scenario is entitled: “2010: When the Washington Wall will fall…”.
Here is a summary of it… (pages 5 & 6)

5- GlobalEurometre

Each month, the GEAB team will poll a group of 50 European opinion leaders on 10 questions related to EU developments out of which 5 will be identical over long periods in order to measure opinion changes. These are the conclusions of the first GlobalEurometre poll … (page 7 & 8)

Lundi 2 Octobre 2006
LEAP / Europe 2020
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GEAB N°90 - Contents

- Published on December 15, 2014 -

Global systemic crisis 2015 – Oil, currencies, finance, societies, the Middle East : Massive storm in the Western port!

. « Global systemic crisis: the end of the West we have known since 1945 »
. The oil crisis is systemic because it is linked to the end of the all-oil era
. The US in one hell of a state
. Europe post-Ukraine: lots of questions
. Three missions for the new Europe: resolve the Ukrainian crisis, put Euro-Russian relations back on the right path, avoid a European QE
. Middle East: traditional alliances’ big waltz
. Saudi Arabia, Iran: the allies change sides
. And Western « values » in all this
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2015 – new phase of the crisis: the oil systemic crisis

. The impact of speculation
. Price War
. Systemic oil crisis and finance
. Systemic oil crisis and geopolitics
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Investments, trends and recommendations

. Oil: beware!
. Energy intensive industries like airline companies
. Renewable energy: the good and the bad
. 2015: Euro & Yen rebound
. Gold: still safe
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Evaluation of our anticipations for 2014
(from GEAB N° 81 in January 2014): a 69% success rate
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