Excerpt GEAB 84 : Crisis Alert for European governance – Risk of a Very Large Separation between EU leaders/European people

- Excerpt GEAB 84 : Crisis Alert for European governance – Risk of a Very Large Separation between EU leaders/European people -

Our team is putting forward a very gloomy scenario here, corresponding to a looming danger which has always been there but of which the probability was balanced, even lower, than that of a move out of the US sphere of influence towards a multipolar world to the emergence of which Europe could make a useful contribution. The Ukrainian crisis has triggered Europe’s derailment which henceforth explodes the risk of Europe’s drift outside the future tracks of peace, independence and democracy to a worrying probability which we estimate at 85%. As such, it deserves to be presented in detail.

In the GEAB N°1 of January 2006, Franck Biancheri (its coordinator until his death in October 2012) laid out the following sequence of the crisis’ stages:

1. Crisis of confidence in the Dollar
2. Crisis in the instability of US finances
3. Oil crisis
4. American leadership crisis
5. Crisis in the Arab-Muslim world
6. Crisis in world governance
7. Crisis in European governance

The fact is that we now find ourselves at this last stage in this sequence of events anticipated by Franck Biancheri in January 2006. And, for several months now, the GEAB has been trying hard to draw attention to the political crisis now affecting Europe by describing the collapse of the post-Maastricht Treaty framework of governance and by trying to show that a way forward to resolve the crisis really exists and that it’s on Euroland’s side.

If you wonder why this list stopped at this stage of the European political crisis, the current situation gives us the answer: as much as the previous stages logically string together one after the other, according to the nature of the outcome of the last, radically different scenarios open up for the events that follow. Will the EU cause its collapse or will the rationale of a Euroland future succeed in finding its way?


For several months as well, we have alluded to the idea of a Europe at the crossroads. In addition, LEAP generally has long advocated closer Euro-BRICS ties as a condition of a non-contentious cooperation between the different global centres. But today Europe has begun to lose the sense of its own destiny, its responsibilities and values… along with its independence and promise of peace.

In the previous issue we described the damaging consequences for Europe’s independence with the construction of a new iron curtain on its eastern border at length. One month later, cold war rhetoric continues to be exploited by all our politicians, media and the Brussels bureaucracy.

The hypotheses that we put forward a month ago(55) remain: in the negotiations on the signing of a EU-Ukraine free trade agreement the West, led by the US, forced the Ukraine to choose sides in rejecting the constructive Russian proposal for tripartite negotiations (Russian-Ukrainian-European) which would have allowed an agreement satisfactory to all parties de facto involved to be found. Forced to choose, the Ukraine is divided, has lost its liberty and its status as a buffer-state guaranteeing smooth relations between Europe and Russia. From this situation the Europe-Russia confrontation logically ensues, accentuated by the US’ bellicose and authoritarian stance and its constant interventions, destabilizing European foreign relations and pushing the EU into the arms of the US and NATO. Returning to the front of the stage, the completely anachronistic reasoning of a cold war and a NATO characterized by losing speed since the fall of the Wall; considerable improvement in the chances of the signature of a TTIP already lost in the previous context; the opening of avenues in all directions in terms of a EU-US energy partnership, etc. Polarization of the world at the time of it becoming multipolar (56), Europe’s Americanization when the NSA scandals were about to take its misalignment is a fact, emergence of a new “Western” ideology contrary to all the much vaunted Western principles of globalization and gradually adopted by the rest of the world, an iron curtain is once again falling on Europe with the active complicity of most of our governments.


Because, contrary to what the “public debate” on the Ukrainian crisis seems to show, the real question is not to know if Putin was right or wrong in getting the Crimea back, but how can we accept that the US involves itself in European foreign affairs to such an extent (57)?

In fact, we recall national governments’ resounding silence in the face of the war madness that gripped Brussels and our media last month. Today, the situation is worse: our governments are not only silent; they are actively participating in a division. France has requested the cancellation of the EU-Russia summit(58), the Baltic countries are requesting that NATO troops be stationed in their countries(59), Poland has reduced its Russian gas imports(60), Finland and Sweden give the impression of panicking at the idea of being invaded by Russia(61)… The brainwashing is at its peak, henceforth led by many national governments, with others still silent…

The Chinese call to “de-Americanize the world” comes to mind. The warning has been acted upon in some countries: the serious diplomatic dispute between India and the US(62) or the CELAC summit in South America(63) is the death knell for US influence in these key strategic regions. The NSA surveillance scandal provided the opportunity to extricate ourselves from these circuits of American influence in our state machinery and had, moreover, been used in this sense up to the Ukrainian crisis(64).


However, we can follow the swing of other countries into the Western camp quite accurately.

Poland’s case is representative. At the end of the “very Atlanticist” Kaczynski brothers’ term of office, Donald Tusk election as Prime Minister in 2007 seemed to signal Poland’s exit from the post-Berlin Wall era. The new leader had a resolutely pro-European policy, anti American missiles and working to restore ties with Russia… until July 2008. On this date he refused, for the last time, to install the anti-missile shield that the US never stopped forcing on him. Because in August 2008 he capitulated and stated that “thanks to this shield, the US and Poland will be safer”. What arguments were able to change Donald Tusk’s mind on such a crucial point? A mystery. Whatever it be Donald Tusk’s Poland has played and continues to play a vital role in the escalation of Euro-Russian tensions(65).

More recently Matteo Renzi coup d’état in Italy, a real NATO aircraft carrier, certainly guarantees the US good cooperation with this country. Renzi is a man of the left cut in the cloth of Clinton, Blair, Schröder, Obama, Strauss-Kahn, etc.: learned from Anglo-Saxon inspired neoliberal theories, useful for passing anti-social measures which cause vehement protest when coming from the right. The LSE qualifies him as “a friend of America and pro-European”(66), a combination which now causes a shudder...

Notes :
(55) Source : Communiqué public GEAB N°83, LEAP/E2020, 15/03/2014.

(56) On this subject, read the article "the Ukrainian Crisis, a dramatic blow to Euro-BRICS rapprochement and the emergence of a multipolar world" published by LEAP's Euro-BRICS network. Source : LEAP/Euro-BRICS, 04/04/2014

(57) It's the US which has anticipated and guided the whole of the European reaction to the Ukrainian crisis: they were the first to take offence at Yanukovych's choosing of the Russian agreement, pushing our leaders to sanctions (Financial Times, 30/03/2014), ), insulting us when we didn't comply quickly enough (The Guardian, 07/02/2014), deciding on the date for the signing of the EU-Ukraine treaty (EU Business, 13/03/2014), stationing their troops in place of NATO's on the EU's eastern borders (ABC, 09/04/2014), etc. The US is fanning a war in Europe without any European government answering back

(58) Source : Deutsche Welle, 20/03/2014

(59) Source : Financial Times, 09/04/2014

(60) Source : The Economist, 04/04/2014

(61) It's an American newspaper which was forced to bring them to their senses. Source : Washington Post, 09/04/2014

(62) Source : Reuters, 13/03/2014

(63) Source : MercoPress, 28/01/2014

(64) Source : Deutsche Welle, 20/03/2014

(65) For proof, just Google « Tusk + Ukraine » dans Google.

(66) Source : LSE, 29/11/2013

Jeudi 4 Décembre 2014
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GEAB N°90 - Contents

- Published on December 15, 2014 -

Global systemic crisis 2015 – Oil, currencies, finance, societies, the Middle East : Massive storm in the Western port!

. « Global systemic crisis: the end of the West we have known since 1945 »
. The oil crisis is systemic because it is linked to the end of the all-oil era
. The US in one hell of a state
. Europe post-Ukraine: lots of questions
. Three missions for the new Europe: resolve the Ukrainian crisis, put Euro-Russian relations back on the right path, avoid a European QE
. Middle East: traditional alliances’ big waltz
. Saudi Arabia, Iran: the allies change sides
. And Western « values » in all this
Read the public announcement

2015 – new phase of the crisis: the oil systemic crisis

. The impact of speculation
. Price War
. Systemic oil crisis and finance
. Systemic oil crisis and geopolitics

Investments, trends and recommendations

. Oil: beware!
. Energy intensive industries like airline companies
. Renewable energy: the good and the bad
. 2015: Euro & Yen rebound
. Gold: still safe

Evaluation of our anticipations for 2014
(from GEAB N° 81 in January 2014): a 69% success rate