Excerpts and public announcements
4th quarter 2009 – Beginning of Phase 5 of the global systemic crisis: phase of global geopolitical dislocation

4th quarter 2009 – Beginning of Phase 5 of the global systemic crisis: phase of global geopolitical dislocation

- Public announcement GEAB N°32 (February 16, 2009) - Back in February 2006, LEAP/E2020 estimated that the global systemic crisis would unfold in 4 main structural phases: trigger, acceleration, impact and decanting phases. This process enabled us to properly anticipate events until now. However our team has now come to the...
End of 2008: The world enters the decanting phase of the global systemic crisis - Anticipations over 2008-2013 for six groups of countries experiencing very different evolutions

End of 2008: The world enters the decanting phase of the global systemic crisis - Anticipations over 2008-2013 for six groups of countries experiencing very different evolutions

- Excerpt GEAB N°28 (October 16, 2008) - If you were a subscriber to the GEAB, you would have read what follows as early as October 16, 2008. The global financial crisis, which went through a major tipping point in September 2008 as anticipated by LEAP/E2020 last February (1), is only the detonator of the global...
Phase IV of the systemic crisis: The sequence of global insolvency begins

Phase IV of the systemic crisis: The sequence of global insolvency begins

- Public announcement GEAB N°31 (January 16, 2009) - In 2007, LEAP/E2020 announced that US banks and consumers were both insolvent. More than a year ago, our team estimated that USD 10,000-billion worth in « ghost-assets » would vanish in the crisis. Both announcements came in complete opposition with the common opinion of that...
Real estate: A bottomless pit

Real estate: A bottomless pit

- Excerpt GEAB N°25 (May 16, 2008) - If you were a subscriber to the GEAB, you would have read what follows as early as May 16, 2008. Not only have home prices initiated a freefall in a growing number of countries, but commercial real-estate is now suffering like home real estate has. In the aftermath of the United...
Global systemic crisis – New tipping-point in March 2009: 'When the world becomes aware that this crisis is worse than the 1930s crisis'

Global systemic crisis – New tipping-point in March 2009: 'When the world becomes aware that this crisis is worse than the 1930s crisis'

- Public announcement GEAB N°30 (December 16, 2008) - LEAP/E2020 anticipates than the unfolding global systemic crisis will experience in March 2009 a new tipping point of similar magnitude to the September 2008 one. According to our team, at that period of the year, the general public will become aware of three major...
Factor N°4 – Economic recession in the US

Factor N°4 – Economic recession in the US

- Excerpt GEAB N°19 (Nov. 16, 2007) - GEAB subscribers know since November 2007 that the US entered into recession at that thime... the mainstream media only let you know now - in December 2008! LEAP/E2020 estimates that recession hit the US economy at the beginning of 2007. And we confirm this analysis despite the...
2008 – After the mortgage loan crisis, here comes the corporate debt crisis

2008 – After the mortgage loan crisis, here comes the corporate debt crisis

- Excerpt GEAB N°21 (January 16, 2008) If you were a subscriber to the GEAB, you would have read what follows as early as January 16, 2008 As we frequently remind it in the GEAB, the global systemic crisis seems to unfold like a spiral. Therefore it affects little for little the world’s entire economic, financial and...
Phase IV of the Global Systemic crisis: Breakdown of the Global Monetary System by summer 2009

Phase IV of the Global Systemic crisis: Breakdown of the Global Monetary System by summer 2009

- Public announcement GEAB N°29 (November 17, 2008) - The G20-meeting held in Washington on November 14/15, 2008, is in its essence a historical indicator that the Western - above all Anglo-Saxon - monopoly on global economic and financial governance, is coming to an end. Nevertheless, according to LEAP/E2020, this meeting...
Global systemic crisis Alert - Summer 2009: The US government defaults on its debt

Global systemic crisis Alert - Summer 2009: The US government defaults on its debt

- Public announcement GEAB N°28 (October 16, 2008) - In this 28th edition of the GEAB, LEAP/E2020 has decided to launch a new global systemic crisis alert. Indeed our researchers anticipate that, before next summer 2009, the US government will default and be prevented to pay back its creditors (holders of US Treasury Bonds,...
The decisive six months to avoid a global recession: Five strategic advices for central banks, governments and other regulatory authorities

The decisive six months to avoid a global recession: Five strategic advices for central banks, governments and other regulatory authorities

- Excerpt GEAB N°26 ( June 16, 2008) - If you were a subscriber to the GEAB, you would have read what will follow as early as June 16, 2008: As underlined in the anticipation we develop in this 26th edition of the Global Europe Anticipation Bulletin (and of previous editions as well), the coming six...
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GEAB N°46 - Contents

- Published on June 16, 2010 -

Global systemic crisis / Second half of 2010: The global system’s four single points of failure
The second half of 2010 will thus correspond to a new step in the global geopolitical dislocation, characterized by an acceleration in the process of strategic, financial, economic and social convulsions centered on four single points of failure of the international system... (page 2)
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Western public debt: When insolvency becomes intolerable
Between now and the end of 2010 the whole world will have learned all the lessons from the « Greek crisis ». In fact, there are only two lessons to learn from… (page 5)
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European austerity: When contextual growth is abandoned in favour of structural stability
In speaking of the Eurozone we have written about « a policy » of austerity and not « policies of austerity » as indeed Germany now sets the standards on the subject... (page 8)
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Chinese inflation: When China is going to begin exporting its inflation
As anticipated by LEAP/E2020, the Chinese new impetus plan is coming to an end and opens up two connected problems... (page 12)
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US contraction: From « hidden mass austerity » to « imposed Federal austerity »
The November 2010 mid-term elections will be the first electoral test of a United States in crisis... (page 14)
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Second series of elements for a methodology of political anticipation: Questions about source material and team management
Second series of excerpts from the Manual of Political Anticipation which LEAP will publish in October 2010. (page 19)
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Strategic and operational recommendations for the second half of 2010
US municipal bond market (« munis »): The major shock
Currencies: The hurricane will strengthen with even higher waves!
World stock markets face the unthinkable
Gold, cash, precious metals, real estate… (page 23)
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The GlobalEurometre - Results & Analyses
Those polled are now unanimously agreed (a rare case for the GlobalEurometre) calling for the establishment of European and Asiatic rating agencies so as to no longer depend on the goodwill of Moody’s, Fitch and Standard & Poor’s.… (page 26)
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Special subscribers’ announcements
EU-Russia seminar, Nice, September 23/24 septembre, 2010
Political Anticipation Academy, cycle 2010-2011 (page 30)
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