Excerpts and public announcements
Residential and Commercial: The property crises continues but in different ways

Residential and Commercial: The property crises continues but in different ways

- Excerpt GEAB N°37 (September 16, 2009) - Whereas the crisis of residential real estate is still raging (including the United States), it is now up time for the commercial real estate to fall into disarray. No surprise ahead for the readers of the GEAB, but the trends differ according to regions. In some cases, it is about...
Global Systemic Crisis - The Decade 2010 – 2020: Towards a knockout victory by gold over the Dollar

Global Systemic Crisis - The Decade 2010 – 2020: Towards a knockout victory by gold over the Dollar

- Public announcement GEAB N°41 (January 16, 2010) - The US Federal Reserve is no longer able, in reality, to continue its multi-decade combat against the « barbarous relic » in order to guarantee the supremacy of the US currency at the centre of the international monetary system. For LEAP/E2020 the decade which has just begun...
States trapped in never-ending financial support of a moribund global economy

States trapped in never-ending financial support of a moribund global economy

- Excerpt GEAB N°37 (September 16th, 2009) - The slowdown in the speed of collapse of the global economy (1), at the origin of all the « good news » (2), is only due to the world's enormous public financial effort of the last twelve months (3). But the « time saved » using taxpayers' money around the world should have been...
Spring 2010 – A new tipping point of the global systemic crisis: When the slip knot around public deficits is going to strangle Western states and their social security systems

Spring 2010 – A new tipping point of the global systemic crisis: When the slip knot around public deficits is going to strangle Western states and their social security systems

- Public announcement GEAB N°40 (December 16, 2009) - LEAP/E2020 believes that the global systemic crisis will experience a new tipping point from Spring 2010. Indeed, at that time, the public finances of the major Western countries are going to become unmanageable, as it will simultaneously become clear that new support...
Global systemic crisis – States faced with three brutal options in 2010: inflation, high taxation or default

Global systemic crisis – States faced with three brutal options in 2010: inflation, high taxation or default

- Public announcement GEAB N°39 (November 16, 2009) - As anticipated by LEAP/E2020 last February, in the absence of major reappraisal of the international monetary order, the world is now entering the phase of geopolitical dislocation of the global systemic crisis. In 2010, as protectionism and the economic and social...
Programmed failure of US and Chinese economic stimulus plans: The 'absorption capacity barrier'

Programmed failure of US and Chinese economic stimulus plans: The 'absorption capacity barrier'

- Excerpt GEAB N°35 (May 16, 2009) - Despite impressive budgets, the two largest economic stimulus plans to date - those initiated by the governments of the United States and the People's Republic of China - are doomed to fail or at best to slightly soften the worst consequences of the current crisis. Beyond the very different...
Global Systemic Crisis – The European Union at a crossroads in 2010: an accomplice or a victim of the collapse of the dollar?

Global Systemic Crisis – The European Union at a crossroads in 2010: an accomplice or a victim of the collapse of the dollar?

- Public announcement GEAB N°38 (October 16, 2009) - The major trends at work in the 4th and 5th phases of the global systemic crisis (the decanting phase and the global geopolitical dislocation phase) are unveiling every day (1). Everyone has now realized that the United States is being swept into an uncontrollable spiral...
Strategic advices and recommendations: 1/ Which indicators to trust in this crisis?

Strategic advices and recommendations: 1/ Which indicators to trust in this crisis?

- Excerpt GEAB N°35 (May 16, 2009) - In the current framework of a historical change of referential system, it is important to focus on reality and therefore to follow the indicators and information on the economic activity (instead of the financial activity) coming from the economic players themselves (instead of governments...
Global systemic crisis: In pursuit of the impossible recovery

Global systemic crisis: In pursuit of the impossible recovery

- Public announcement GEAB N°37 (Septembre 16, 2009) - Before this summer, LEAP/E2020's team announced that there would be no recovery in sight in September 2009, and not until summer 2010 in any event. Well indeed, contrary to the claims of the media, and financial and political circles, we confirm our anticipation....
Price of gold: the paradox is revealed

Price of gold: the paradox is revealed

- Excerpt GEAB N°34 (April 16, 2009) - For months we have witnessing a worldwide paradoxical phenomenon which the press has widely reported. Because of the crisis investors fled most categories of assets (real estate, stock market, currencies, comodities) and many of them have invested a portion of their portfolios in gold,...
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GEAB N°46 - Contents

- Published on June 16, 2010 -

Global systemic crisis / Second half of 2010: The global system’s four single points of failure
The second half of 2010 will thus correspond to a new step in the global geopolitical dislocation, characterized by an acceleration in the process of strategic, financial, economic and social convulsions centered on four single points of failure of the international system... (page 2)
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Western public debt: When insolvency becomes intolerable
Between now and the end of 2010 the whole world will have learned all the lessons from the « Greek crisis ». In fact, there are only two lessons to learn from… (page 5)
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European austerity: When contextual growth is abandoned in favour of structural stability
In speaking of the Eurozone we have written about « a policy » of austerity and not « policies of austerity » as indeed Germany now sets the standards on the subject... (page 8)
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Chinese inflation: When China is going to begin exporting its inflation
As anticipated by LEAP/E2020, the Chinese new impetus plan is coming to an end and opens up two connected problems... (page 12)
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US contraction: From « hidden mass austerity » to « imposed Federal austerity »
The November 2010 mid-term elections will be the first electoral test of a United States in crisis... (page 14)
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Second series of elements for a methodology of political anticipation: Questions about source material and team management
Second series of excerpts from the Manual of Political Anticipation which LEAP will publish in October 2010. (page 19)
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Strategic and operational recommendations for the second half of 2010
US municipal bond market (« munis »): The major shock
Currencies: The hurricane will strengthen with even higher waves!
World stock markets face the unthinkable
Gold, cash, precious metals, real estate… (page 23)
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The GlobalEurometre - Results & Analyses
Those polled are now unanimously agreed (a rare case for the GlobalEurometre) calling for the establishment of European and Asiatic rating agencies so as to no longer depend on the goodwill of Moody’s, Fitch and Standard & Poor’s.… (page 26)
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Special subscribers’ announcements
EU-Russia seminar, Nice, September 23/24 septembre, 2010
Political Anticipation Academy, cycle 2010-2011 (page 30)
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