Excerpts and public announcements
States trapped in never-ending financial support of a moribund global economy

States trapped in never-ending financial support of a moribund global economy

- Excerpt GEAB N°37 (September 16th, 2009) - The slowdown in the speed of collapse of the global economy (1), at the origin of all the « good news » (2), is only due to the world's enormous public financial effort of the last twelve months (3). But the « time saved » using taxpayers' money around the world should have been...
Spring 2010 – A new tipping point of the global systemic crisis: When the slip knot around public deficits is going to strangle Western states and their social security systems

Spring 2010 – A new tipping point of the global systemic crisis: When the slip knot around public deficits is going to strangle Western states and their social security systems

- Public announcement GEAB N°40 (December 16, 2009) - LEAP/E2020 believes that the global systemic crisis will experience a new tipping point from Spring 2010. Indeed, at that time, the public finances of the major Western countries are going to become unmanageable, as it will simultaneously become clear that new support...
Global systemic crisis – States faced with three brutal options in 2010: inflation, high taxation or default

Global systemic crisis – States faced with three brutal options in 2010: inflation, high taxation or default

- Public announcement GEAB N°39 (November 16, 2009) - As anticipated by LEAP/E2020 last February, in the absence of major reappraisal of the international monetary order, the world is now entering the phase of geopolitical dislocation of the global systemic crisis. In 2010, as protectionism and the economic and social...
Programmed failure of US and Chinese economic stimulus plans: The 'absorption capacity barrier'

Programmed failure of US and Chinese economic stimulus plans: The 'absorption capacity barrier'

- Excerpt GEAB N°35 (May 16, 2009) - Despite impressive budgets, the two largest economic stimulus plans to date - those initiated by the governments of the United States and the People's Republic of China - are doomed to fail or at best to slightly soften the worst consequences of the current crisis. Beyond the very different...
Global Systemic Crisis – The European Union at a crossroads in 2010: an accomplice or a victim of the collapse of the dollar?

Global Systemic Crisis – The European Union at a crossroads in 2010: an accomplice or a victim of the collapse of the dollar?

- Public announcement GEAB N°38 (October 16, 2009) - The major trends at work in the 4th and 5th phases of the global systemic crisis (the decanting phase and the global geopolitical dislocation phase) are unveiling every day (1). Everyone has now realized that the United States is being swept into an uncontrollable spiral...
Strategic advices and recommendations: 1/ Which indicators to trust in this crisis?

Strategic advices and recommendations: 1/ Which indicators to trust in this crisis?

- Excerpt GEAB N°35 (May 16, 2009) - In the current framework of a historical change of referential system, it is important to focus on reality and therefore to follow the indicators and information on the economic activity (instead of the financial activity) coming from the economic players themselves (instead of governments...
Global systemic crisis: In pursuit of the impossible recovery

Global systemic crisis: In pursuit of the impossible recovery

- Public announcement GEAB N°37 (Septembre 16, 2009) - Before this summer, LEAP/E2020's team announced that there would be no recovery in sight in September 2009, and not until summer 2010 in any event. Well indeed, contrary to the claims of the media, and financial and political circles, we confirm our anticipation....
Price of gold: the paradox is revealed

Price of gold: the paradox is revealed

- Excerpt GEAB N°34 (April 16, 2009) - For months we have witnessing a worldwide paradoxical phenomenon which the press has widely reported. Because of the crisis investors fled most categories of assets (real estate, stock market, currencies, comodities) and many of them have invested a portion of their portfolios in gold,...
Two major processes at the centre of the phase of global geopolitical dislocation

Two major processes at the centre of the phase of global geopolitical dislocation

- Excerpt GEAB N°32 (February 16, 2009) - 1. Disappearance of the financial base (Dollars & Debts) all over the world A very simple image illustrates the global insolvency characteristic of today’s global financial system: the financial base which banks, insurers and global financial institutions were resting upon,...
When China prepares its « Great Escape » from the dollar-trap for the end of summer 2009

When China prepares its « Great Escape » from the dollar-trap for the end of summer 2009

- Excerpt GEAB N°34 (April 16, 2009) - LEAP/E2020 believes that the next stage of the crisis will result from a Chinese dream. Indeed, what on earth can China be dreaming of, caught – if we listen to Washington – in the “dollar trap” of its USD 1,400-billion worth of USD-denominated assets? If we believe US leaders and their...
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GEAB N°41 - Contents

- Published on January 16, 2010 -

Calendar 2010 – 2020 / The « tragic twilight » of the world-before-the-crisis
The publication of this first GEAB of the year, where we usually publish our anticipations for the next twelve months, exceptionally coincides with the beginning of a new decade and, what is more, a decade which all careful observers feel will mark an upheaval in the world order. Our team has seized this occasion to give our subscribers the benefit of a rational geopolitical « dive » into what the coming decade holds for us… (page 2)
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To prepare 2010 - ’15 UP AND 15 DOWN’, 30 KEY TRENDS FOR 2010 – Fifteen topics which are going to increase in importance during 2010 / Fifteen key subjects which are going to fade away between now and the end of 2010
The US Federal reserve; The Very Great US Depression; The future of the United Kingdom; Global warming; Gold; Yuan; Unemployment and social dislocation; Global geopolitical dislocation; Eurozone; Speculative bubbles; Dollar, Pound Sterling and Yen; Greece as a Eurozone menace; Latin America; BRIC summits; Global recovery; Globalisation; EU governance; China’s economic miracle; The likelihood of a NATO victory in Afghanistan; G20; The middle-East “Peace Process”; State bankruptcies; Israel-USA/Iran conflict; Social safety net systems; Trade blocs; US T-bonds; Tax reductions; Nicolas Sarkozy… (page 8)
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The Decade 2010 – 2020: Towards a knockout victory by gold over the Dollar
We have often reminded readers in different GEAB issues that gold constitutes both a medium/long term investment intended to protect one’s capital against the risk of a loss in value of paper currencies and financial assets, and an eventual means of payment in the event of a very serious monetary crisis. In these two cases the choice of placing a portion of one’s assets in gold is a response to anticipating events and risks in the coming years (and not the coming weeks or months). For this GEAB N°41, a special edition at the beginning of a new decade, it seems opportune to LEAP/E2020 to put forward its anticipations on gold’s progress for 2010 – 2020, completing what the team wrote in issue N°34 of the GEAB in April 2009… (page 19)
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The GlobalEurometre - Results & Analyses
Citizens’ discontent with European government action compared to the expectations of their people climbs slightly, though remaining at very high levels (96%). The « Lisbon Treaty » effect clearly hasn’t happened.… (page 24)
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