Excerpts and public announcements

Global Systemic Crisis – The European Union at a crossroads in 2010: an accomplice or a victim of the collapse of the dollar?

- Public announcement GEAB N°38 (October 16, 2009) - The major trends at work in the 4th and 5th phases of the global systemic crisis (the decanting phase and the global geopolitical dislocation phase) are unveiling every day (1). Everyone has now realized that the United States is being swept into an uncontrollable spiral...

Strategic advices and recommendations: 1/ Which indicators to trust in this crisis?

- Excerpt GEAB N°35 (May 16, 2009) - In the current framework of a historical change of referential system, it is important to focus on reality and therefore to follow the indicators and information on the economic activity (instead of the financial activity) coming from the economic players themselves (instead of governments...

Global systemic crisis: In pursuit of the impossible recovery

- Public announcement GEAB N°37 (Septembre 16, 2009) - Before this summer, LEAP/E2020's team announced that there would be no recovery in sight in September 2009, and not until summer 2010 in any event. Well indeed, contrary to the claims of the media, and financial and political circles, we confirm our anticipation. ...

Price of gold: the paradox is revealed

- Excerpt GEAB N°34 (April 16, 2009) - For months we have witnessing a worldwide paradoxical phenomenon which the press has widely reported. Because of the crisis investors fled most categories of assets (real estate, stock market, currencies, comodities) and many of them have invested a portion of their portfolios in gold,...

Two major processes at the centre of the phase of global geopolitical dislocation

- Excerpt GEAB N°32 (February 16, 2009) - 1. Disappearance of the financial base (Dollars & Debts) all over the world A very simple image illustrates the global insolvency characteristic of today’s global financial system: the financial base which banks, insurers and global financial institutions were resting upon,...

When China prepares its « Great Escape » from the dollar-trap for the end of summer 2009

- Excerpt GEAB N°34 (April 16, 2009) - LEAP/E2020 believes that the next stage of the crisis will result from a Chinese dream. Indeed, what on earth can China be dreaming of, caught – if we listen to Washington – in the “dollar trap” of its USD 1,400-billion worth of USD-denominated assets? If we believe US leaders and their...

Global systemic crisis in summer 2009: The cumulative impact of three « rogue waves »

- Public announcement Special Summer 2009 GEAB N°36 (June 17, 2009) - As anticipated by LEAP/E2020 as early as October 2008, on the eve of summer 2009, the question of the US and UK capacity to finance their unbridled public deficits has become the central question of international debates, thus paving the way for these two...

Towards a world war of interest rates aimed at capturing global savings

- Excerpt GEAB N°31 (January 16, 2009) - As a matter of fact, the recent step taken by the Fed proves that, though they do not admit it, they are in fact beginning to realize that they are facing a problem of general insolvency in the US (and in the related countries, such as UK (1)), affecting the federal State, federated...

Global systemic crisis: June 2009 - When the world steps out of a sixty-year old referential framework

- Public announcement GEAB N°35 (May 16, 2009) - The financial surrealism which has been at the heart of stock market trends, financial indicators and political commentaries in the past two months, is in fact the swan song of the referential framework within which the world has lived since 1945. Just as in January...

Thirteen questions and answers about the future developments of the global systemic crisis (3rd episode)

- Excerpt GEAB N°30 (December 16, 2008) - This series of questions and answers - which 2nd episode we now publish - was released in December 16, 2008 'GEAB N°30). 9. Do you think that deflation is right now the biggest threat to economies worldwide? LEAP/E2020: No. We are seeing a transitory deflation of asset prices...
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GEAB N°39 - Contents

- Published on November 16, 2009 -

Global systemic crisis – States faced with three brutal options in 2010: inflation, high taxation or default
In the absence of major reappraisal of the international monetary order, the world is now entering the phase of geopolitical dislocation of the global systemic crisis. In 2010, as protectionism and the economic and social depression will gain momentum, a large number of States will be compelled to choose between three brutal options: inflation, high taxation or defaulting on their debt... (page 2)
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The end of the consumer-as-we-knew-him in the past thirty years
For sure the American consumer, incarnation of the American Dream since Henry Ford, has died. But the Western consumer (outside the US) as we knew him in the past thirty years is also wearing out. In addition to that, LEAP/E2020 believes that it is wrong to think that Asians and Latin-Americans will replace these « consuming machines » and enable « planet-profit » to go on as it used to do… (page 6)
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Crisis exit: In collision with reality – Real state of things at the end of 2009: USA, Euroland, China
The United States, United Kingdom, or even Japan, striving to escape from defaulting, or France and Germany left with no other choice than raise taxes by the end of 2010, in any event, in 2010, as inflation will affect necessity goods and speculative assets, anti-crisis policies and the reality of the global systemic crisis will collide… (page 11)
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Turkey’s awakening: Its gradual exit from the Western camp
Taking advantage of the ongoing systemic crisis, and of the weakening of the US and of the Western superstructure over which the latter’s might is based, Turkey has entered a process of fundamental redefinition of its key geopolitical interests. The new priorities ready to break out by 2012 will account for Ankara’s most profound reappraisal since the country joined NATO in 1952… (page 16)
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Strategic and operational recommendations
. Currencies/Gold: Trends are being confirmed
. Real estate: Renting or buying? A choice requiring careful consideration
. Shares/Bonds: The tipping point is approaching
. « Liquidity surplus »: An iconoclastic explanation (page 20)
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The GlobalEurometre - Results & Analyses
The unanimity of respondents (99 percent) sees no sign of economic improvement in their country… (page 22)
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