Excerpts and public announcements
Second half of 2010: Sudden intensification of the global systemic crisis – Strengthening of five fundamental negative trends

Second half of 2010: Sudden intensification of the global systemic crisis – Strengthening of five fundamental negative trends

GEAB quote - February16, 2010 (GEAB N°42) LEAP/E2020 is of the view that the effect of States’ spending trillions to « counteract the crisis » will have fizzled out. These vast sums had the effect of slowing down the development of the systemic global crisis for several months but, as anticipated in previous GEAB reports, this...
The crisis marks the end of pre-eminence in the financial sphere and the lasting decline of the City and Wall Street

The crisis marks the end of pre-eminence in the financial sphere and the lasting decline of the City and Wall Street

- Excerpt GEAB N°43 (March 16, 2010) - This chapter of GEAB N°43 is adpated from an article prepared at the request of Annales des Mines, the oldest French scientific publication (established in 1794), for its next edition. It is a geopolitical, as much as an economic, financial and monetary approach which led LEAP, in...
The inevitable rise in interest rates

The inevitable rise in interest rates

- Excerpt GEAB N°42 (February 16, 2010) - These factors lead us, of course, to a question which is very easy to express, but to which the answer is complex: how much will it cost to borrow this money for which the competition has intensified? For the last 18 months the central bankers have replied: « The crisis is a...
Three fundamental trends aggravating the crisis in the second half of 2010

Three fundamental trends aggravating the crisis in the second half of 2010

- Excerpt GEAB N°42 (February 16, 2010) - For LEAP/E2020, behind the « sophisticated » dissertations on the exit from the crisis and the end of the policies of support for the economy and the financial sector hides a very simple truth, but one which governments and central bankers are unable to express: they don’t know what to...
Global systemic crisis – From « Eurozone coup d’Etat » to the tragic solitude of the United Kingdom, the pace of global geopolitical dislocation accelerates

Global systemic crisis – From « Eurozone coup d’Etat » to the tragic solitude of the United Kingdom, the pace of global geopolitical dislocation accelerates

- Public announcement GEAB N°45 (May 16, 2010) - Just as anticipated by LEAP/E2020 in issues N°40 (December 2009) and N°42 (February 2010), spring 2010 really marks a tipping point of the global systemic crisis, characterized by a sudden expansion due to the intolerable size of public deficits (see issue N° 39, November 2009)...
GEAB said it in March 2007: "Private banks such as Goldman Sachs could end up in various judicial procedures"

GEAB said it in March 2007: "Private banks such as Goldman Sachs could end up in various judicial procedures"

- Excerpt GEAB N°13 (March 16, 2007) Recommendations / Alert on financial sector LEAP/E2020 advises to get out of the financial sector in general and to do it as soon as possible when it comes to the US (or operating in the US) financial sector. As described above in the present GEAB, the converging consequences...
Global systemic crisis / USA-UK - The explosive duo of the second half of 2010: Summer 2010 - The Bank of England battle / Winter 2010 - The Fed at risk of bankruptcy

Global systemic crisis / USA-UK - The explosive duo of the second half of 2010: Summer 2010 - The Bank of England battle / Winter 2010 - The Fed at risk of bankruptcy

- Public announcement GEAB N°44 (April 16, 2010) - Just as LEAP/E2020 anticipated many months ago, and in contrast to the reports coming out of the media and the « experts » during these past few weeks, Greece really has the Eurozone behind it to give support and credibility (especially concerning good management in the future,...
The five steps of the global geopolitical dislocation phase

The five steps of the global geopolitical dislocation phase

- Public announcement GEAB N°43 (March 16th, 2010) - At the end of this first quarter of 2010, with increasing signs of confrontation at international level on monetary, financial, commercial and strategic fronts, and as the severity of the social impact of the crisis is evident at the heart of major countries and regions,...
Turkey’s awakening: Its gradual exit from the Western camp

Turkey’s awakening: Its gradual exit from the Western camp

- Excerpt GEAB N°39 (November 16, 2009) - Taking advantage of the ongoing systemic crisis, and of the weakening of the US and of the Western superstructure over which the latter’s might is based, Turkey has entered a process of fundamental redefinition of its key geopolitical interests. The new priorities ready to break out by...
Second half of 2010: Sudden intensification of the global systemic crisis – Strengthening of five fundamental negative trends

Second half of 2010: Sudden intensification of the global systemic crisis – Strengthening of five fundamental negative trends

- Public announcement GEAB N°42 (February 16, 2010) - LEAP/E2020 is of the view that the effect of States’ spending trillions to « counteract the crisis » will have fizzled out. These vast sums had the effect of slowing down the development of the systemic global crisis for several months but, as anticipated in previous GEAB...
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GEAB N°46 - Contents

- Published on June 16, 2010 -

Global systemic crisis / Second half of 2010: The global system’s four single points of failure
The second half of 2010 will thus correspond to a new step in the global geopolitical dislocation, characterized by an acceleration in the process of strategic, financial, economic and social convulsions centered on four single points of failure of the international system... (page 2)
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Western public debt: When insolvency becomes intolerable
Between now and the end of 2010 the whole world will have learned all the lessons from the « Greek crisis ». In fact, there are only two lessons to learn from… (page 5)
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European austerity: When contextual growth is abandoned in favour of structural stability
In speaking of the Eurozone we have written about « a policy » of austerity and not « policies of austerity » as indeed Germany now sets the standards on the subject... (page 8)
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Chinese inflation: When China is going to begin exporting its inflation
As anticipated by LEAP/E2020, the Chinese new impetus plan is coming to an end and opens up two connected problems... (page 12)
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US contraction: From « hidden mass austerity » to « imposed Federal austerity »
The November 2010 mid-term elections will be the first electoral test of a United States in crisis... (page 14)
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Second series of elements for a methodology of political anticipation: Questions about source material and team management
Second series of excerpts from the Manual of Political Anticipation which LEAP will publish in October 2010. (page 19)
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Strategic and operational recommendations for the second half of 2010
US municipal bond market (« munis »): The major shock
Currencies: The hurricane will strengthen with even higher waves!
World stock markets face the unthinkable
Gold, cash, precious metals, real estate… (page 23)
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The GlobalEurometre - Results & Analyses
Those polled are now unanimously agreed (a rare case for the GlobalEurometre) calling for the establishment of European and Asiatic rating agencies so as to no longer depend on the goodwill of Moody’s, Fitch and Standard & Poor’s.… (page 26)
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Special subscribers’ announcements
EU-Russia seminar, Nice, September 23/24 septembre, 2010
Political Anticipation Academy, cycle 2010-2011 (page 30)
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