Excerpts and public announcements
Second half of 2010: Sudden intensification of the global systemic crisis – Strengthening of five fundamental negative trends

Second half of 2010: Sudden intensification of the global systemic crisis – Strengthening of five fundamental negative trends

- Public announcement GEAB N°42 (February 16, 2010) - LEAP/E2020 is of the view that the effect of States’ spending trillions to « counteract the crisis » will have fizzled out. These vast sums had the effect of slowing down the development of the systemic global crisis for several months but, as anticipated in previous GEAB...
Residential and Commercial: The property crises continues but in different ways

Residential and Commercial: The property crises continues but in different ways

- Excerpt GEAB N°37 (September 16, 2009) - Whereas the crisis of residential real estate is still raging (including the United States), it is now up time for the commercial real estate to fall into disarray. No surprise ahead for the readers of the GEAB, but the trends differ according to regions. In some cases, it is about...
Global Systemic Crisis - The Decade 2010 – 2020: Towards a knockout victory by gold over the Dollar

Global Systemic Crisis - The Decade 2010 – 2020: Towards a knockout victory by gold over the Dollar

- Public announcement GEAB N°41 (January 16, 2010) - The US Federal Reserve is no longer able, in reality, to continue its multi-decade combat against the « barbarous relic » in order to guarantee the supremacy of the US currency at the centre of the international monetary system. For LEAP/E2020 the decade which has just begun...
States trapped in never-ending financial support of a moribund global economy

States trapped in never-ending financial support of a moribund global economy

- Excerpt GEAB N°37 (September 16th, 2009) - The slowdown in the speed of collapse of the global economy (1), at the origin of all the « good news » (2), is only due to the world's enormous public financial effort of the last twelve months (3). But the « time saved » using taxpayers' money around the world should have been...
Spring 2010 – A new tipping point of the global systemic crisis: When the slip knot around public deficits is going to strangle Western states and their social security systems

Spring 2010 – A new tipping point of the global systemic crisis: When the slip knot around public deficits is going to strangle Western states and their social security systems

- Public announcement GEAB N°40 (December 16, 2009) - LEAP/E2020 believes that the global systemic crisis will experience a new tipping point from Spring 2010. Indeed, at that time, the public finances of the major Western countries are going to become unmanageable, as it will simultaneously become clear that new support...
Global systemic crisis – States faced with three brutal options in 2010: inflation, high taxation or default

Global systemic crisis – States faced with three brutal options in 2010: inflation, high taxation or default

- Public announcement GEAB N°39 (November 16, 2009) - As anticipated by LEAP/E2020 last February, in the absence of major reappraisal of the international monetary order, the world is now entering the phase of geopolitical dislocation of the global systemic crisis. In 2010, as protectionism and the economic and social...
Programmed failure of US and Chinese economic stimulus plans: The 'absorption capacity barrier'

Programmed failure of US and Chinese economic stimulus plans: The 'absorption capacity barrier'

- Excerpt GEAB N°35 (May 16, 2009) - Despite impressive budgets, the two largest economic stimulus plans to date - those initiated by the governments of the United States and the People's Republic of China - are doomed to fail or at best to slightly soften the worst consequences of the current crisis. Beyond the very different...
Global Systemic Crisis – The European Union at a crossroads in 2010: an accomplice or a victim of the collapse of the dollar?

Global Systemic Crisis – The European Union at a crossroads in 2010: an accomplice or a victim of the collapse of the dollar?

- Public announcement GEAB N°38 (October 16, 2009) - The major trends at work in the 4th and 5th phases of the global systemic crisis (the decanting phase and the global geopolitical dislocation phase) are unveiling every day (1). Everyone has now realized that the United States is being swept into an uncontrollable spiral...
Strategic advices and recommendations: 1/ Which indicators to trust in this crisis?

Strategic advices and recommendations: 1/ Which indicators to trust in this crisis?

- Excerpt GEAB N°35 (May 16, 2009) - In the current framework of a historical change of referential system, it is important to focus on reality and therefore to follow the indicators and information on the economic activity (instead of the financial activity) coming from the economic players themselves (instead of governments...
Global systemic crisis: In pursuit of the impossible recovery

Global systemic crisis: In pursuit of the impossible recovery

- Public announcement GEAB N°37 (Septembre 16, 2009) - Before this summer, LEAP/E2020's team announced that there would be no recovery in sight in September 2009, and not until summer 2010 in any event. Well indeed, contrary to the claims of the media, and financial and political circles, we confirm our anticipation....
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GEAB N°43 - Contents

- Published on March 16, 2010 -

The crisis marks the end of pre-eminence in the financial sphere and the lasting decline of the City and Wall Street
It is a geopolitical, as much as an economic, financial and monetary approach which led LEAP, in February 2006, to announce the imminent arrival of what we have called « the global systemic crisis ». This same approach now tends to confirm that, in the « world after the crisis », the real economy will, once again, take on a central role, whilst these last few decades have been marked by a virtual economy in the financial sector being at the centre of affairs… (page 2)
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The five steps of the global geopolitical dislocation phase (page 7)
Beginning of the phase of global geopolitical dislocation (page 12)
Step 1: Monetary disputes and financial shocks (page 12)
Step 2: Trade disputes (page 14)
Step 3: State crises (page 14)
Step 4: Socio-political crises (page 16)
Step 5: Strategic crises (page 17)
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« Danger warning »: A list of eight sovereign risks more dangerous than Greece
Based on the most recent information available, the LEAP/E2020 team has refined its country risk classification published last autumn. From that it is clearly apparent that eight large countries are in a worse position than Greece, exactly confirming our anticipation that the Greek problem is only a tree hiding the forest… (page 18)
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Strategic and operational recommendations
Currencies, Stocks and Bonds, Country’s degree of socio-political risk… (page 20)
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The GlobalEurometre - Results & Analyses
A further change in the majority worried about the possibility of political and social upheaval in their country: those believing in such a development constitute, once again, a substantial majority this month (76% versus 57% who thought the opposite in February)… (page 22)
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